I have a guess. The imbalance between eligible ones and ineligible ones will cause the price hike of those eligible ones. Then the EV market will settle at some point of equivalently little fed tax credit to the customers. Let’s see. So for whom missed the fed tax credit, the difference may not be that much. The market has changed, the eligible ones will be priced higher and eat the credit as well.
A lot of carmakers have been raising prices (Tesla is a prime example), and I had a Ford dealer tell me the F-150 Lighting "will be $7500 more expensive" when orders reopen. So your theory may have some truth. MINI might look attractive for not actually raising prices, just eliminating the lower trim levels. I think more important than the cost of the SE is the cost of the SE relative to the ICE versions MINI offers. Many people who want a MINI will want one, and then it becomes a question of choosing the model.