In 2011 Lawrence Livermore produced at study that said ICE parity at the cell level was at $128 per kwh. Pretty sure that was the number and that it was cell level not pack level. But now as per this article https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUSKBN22Q1WC we are at less than $80 per kwh at the pack level and for cobalt free cells. This is Tesla CATL stuff. This means the battery in the Model Y would be $6Kand maybe another $4K for two motors. That's $10K for the power train. This is why Adam Jonas just said Tesla has proved already that EVs are cheaper to make (apparently much cheaper to make) and more profitable than ICE (apparently already much more profitable than ICE. Tesla had its first profitable year and its shown highest margins in the industry. Model Y is now expected to outsell every SUV in the US and seems certain Cyber truck will outsell F150. We will soon start to see 400 mile plus range Model Ys. We will see cobalt free, million mile power trains that cost less than 1/7th to power and maintain what ICE does and are much more reliable (already) with much better performance (already) that cost out in a way that means the power train is only about $2K per equivalent ICE vehicle increment. That is 1 million miles vs the 150K miles of ICE life for about 10K for the battery pack and power train total at the current Model Y spec and range but it won't be long before that price also includes a range greater than 400 miles- by the end of the year? Suspect before the end of the year the Model Y will get that wiring harness and the single piece casting. I think Adam Jonas said margins greater than %40 are in order. He said investors see that you don' have to sacrifice profitability to go EV- at least with say Tesla and Xpeng and BYD. The Reuters article talks of how Tesla will use these advances including the tab-less battery to grow volume and profitability. Look at the year Tesla was profitable in and look at how during the black out how its orders are the highest they've ever been and look at what happened in the UK. Now think of what Lutz said about no secret sauce when VW, Daimler and BMW just had a meeting to pool resources because they can't figure out software, but honestly they seem just as far behind on hardware because of design and sunk costs and they still keep trying to do things like transmissions in EVs when the Tesla roadster proves you don't need that. Their business models are also broken too and in a way that goes beyond unneeded dealer networks. Tesla sells the car and the power needed to run it (at unbeatable cost and green too) and even drive it for you and insure it (unbeatable cost again) for you- Tesla makes it so you don't even need a car while saving a ton of money with greatly increased convenience. Think of how stupid what Lutz said about outsourcing knowing what you are doing seems in that context. GM's problem is that it outsourced everything except the skimming, could see it when they tried to pitch LGs battery and their execs didn't even know the terminology associated with the hardware despite massive boasting. So how do ICE makers have products that don't perform as well, are less desirable, more polluting, less profitable and subject to increasing regulation and fines- how do they continue to compete and stay in business? They don't, they ask for virus related hand outs and try to use the virus as an excuse to further delay their transition to products that are competitive and clean. VW, BMW, Daimler should merge. Ford, GM, FCA should merge. Toyota, Nissan and Honda should merge. If you had for instance VW, Daimler and BMW you could at least put Herb Diess at the helm and the Daimler CEO in the #2 spot- both those firms seem to at least have albeit 10 years too late. Could put Hackett atop the Big3. Even Lutz knows this is going to happen but he thinks it is going to take about 25 years- he is off by a factor of about 10x it should just take a couple years. Even if they merge all will have trouble against new players like Tesla, Xpeng and BYD. What is the alternative (?) Amazon buying up bit of a liquidated Big 3?
