Like many, I was listening to the Q2 earnings call last week, and noticed that Elon Musk often gets caught up in his own BS, and while his fans really pay no attention to the details, I tend to listen and dissect what is said. I posted the other day about a few of the "interesting misses" but this one I kept thinking about and now that i have seen the transcript of the call it was a serious mis-step for Elon. Elon was asked about Tesla's previous guidance of 1M cars in 2020, to which his answer was complete BS, but interesting at the same time. Here is the question and Elon's answer... Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal Hi. Thanks for the call. Question for you. Do you still plan to make a total of 1 million vehicles in the calendar year of 2020? Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. I think so, yeah. If it's not a million, it's going to be pretty close. I'd say if it's not a million it'd probably be 750,000 or something like that in 2020. So, we're aiming for a million, 2020, but somewhere between half million and a million seems pretty likely. Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal Where do you get the capacity to do that? Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. There's this place called Shanghai. Tim Higgins - The Wall Street Journal OK. Shanghai will be important for that, that goal? Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. Yeah. Now, this is very interesting, because the shareholder letter guides that the Shanghai facility will start construction in 3 quarters, and begin production in 3 years. OK guys, 3 years from today is Aug 2021, so obviously this production will not be a factor in 2020's numbers... What what Elon talking about? Bulls wonder why Bears are so skeptical of Elon, well here you go, Obviously this answer to Mr Higgins question is complete BS. Elon even tried to be a bit of a smarta$$ in his answer "Theres this place called Shanghai" when the accompanying shareholders letter clearly says production in Shanghai is not planned to start until late 2021 (and even that is Tesla-Elon time, so 2022 more likely). Here is the Tesla estimated timeline of GF3 from the shareholder letter. "In July, we announced our plan to build a wholly Tesla-owned Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai – our first Gigafactory outside the US. We are excited about this opportunity, as China is by far the largest EV market in the world and Chinese support for electric vehicles has been exceptionally strong. Initial capacity is expected to be roughly 250,000 vehicles and battery packs per year, and will grow to 500,000, with the first cars expected to roll off the production line in about three years." Bottom Line, Tesla will not reach production of 1M in 2020, or 2021, this was just Elon making stuff up... BTW, how is Tesla's guided 500K for 2018 looking so far?