Battery $/kWh and parity with ICE?

Discussion in 'General' started by bwilson4web, Nov 1, 2018.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber


    Many years ago, an article:

    “The tipping point for the mass market to move from internal combustion engines to EVs is between $US250 and $US300/kWh. Once it gets to $US100/kWh, it is all over. I think we will get to $US250/kWh by 2020. By 2030, when batteries are at $100/kWh, gasoline vehicles will be obsolete. Not on their way out, obsolete,” said Mr. Seba to RENew Economy, while noting that he thinks that “mass migration” to EVs will start between 2018 to 2020.

    I have seen similar predictions over the years but nothing recent. Perhaps it is time to revisit as:

    The basis of the energy storage system of Tesla products are lithium-ion cells in the 18650 form factor. These cylindrical cells have a diameter of 18 mm and are 65 mm in length, a size used for the batteries of laptops. Cylindrical cells are generally less expensive (costing 190–200 dollars per kWh as of 2014) than large format cells whose active layers are stacked or folded (approximately 240–250 dollars per kWh).[107]
    . . .

    So we're seeing with the Model S/X/3 a significant conquest of:
    • high-end luxury cars - the Model S and X have decimated them
    • middle level luxury cars - the Model 3 is wiping out the usual suspects and drawing from medium priced, $30k car owners
    Sure the Model 3 has done much more than the Bolt and Leaf. But does this mean $/kWh is no longer a valid metric for parity with ICE cars?

    I Googled up Tony Seba only to find he is wandering in a strange land I won't go (i.e., ride sharing, "Uber Alles".) So I don't see him as being a good source.


    Bob Wilson
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