The tech behind self-driving is the simple evolution of GPS tech and its route around or real time way seeking technology. If current GPS were to stop the global economy would stop. Google recently developed requisite AV 4 level technology for 10 years and then introduced essentially perfected level 4 tech last year, in 3 years it will have widespread regulatory approval. So perfected tech is already here and driving people around in Arizona with no one behind the wheel in free minivan taxis. Granted, the first Google vehicle is a plug in hybrid but the final vehicle will be a pure electric (TAAS and AVs don't work for petrol- very obvious at this point, no longer contested) and Quaergy is set to release tiny $90 solid state Lidar sensors- 4 will do it for a whole vehicle so that $360 that you can't even see- expect even Tesla to integrate this- but Tesla's point that Lidar for instance can't read stop signs or deal well with particulate obstruction is very valid. Vehicles will share their sensor data in real time and full AV would move forward even if we had to make every road fixture adaptive (we won't,) because the pay off is massive to the point that its mind boggling. Another point to keep in mind is that success in a single market spreads everywhere. Seba has pointed out its a winner take all where there will be maybe 2 or possibly 3 players quickly, rest will be bought up or out. It will happen in Asia possibly first. No matter it happens there and happen way sooner than people think and it won't be containable. Think about how bad NY is and the impact Uber already had. But think about places were they have A & B tickets and you can only drive into the city every other day and where cars literally touch bumpers as they go down the street. In many places in the world it is about close to the top of the economic development and quality of life issues and even in the states think about the imminent domain battles and what its costs to tear up a strip of houses and businesses to widen a freeway and value of not having to do that!!! There will be no way to have say American actuaries lie about the results elsewhere in the world and then use sponsored media spin networks to censor its reality, No it will then spread quickly state by state in the US and elsewhere. It will be an instant on moment and stupid (beyond belief stupid campaigns) like "push to get Tesla to rename Autopilot will just get found out add to the concrete criminal case against petrol fuel energy, and you can see that already as cities, counties and states increasingly go after petrol fuel energy on civil terms. Level 5 isn't needed for the revolution but that too should be available soon enough, its part of what will drive drone level logistics- Google's level 4 will undergo expected 3 years of continuing refinement and proving to regulators and then be launched as a full service so 2021 is the expected shot heard round the world, hit to petrol fuel energy positions will be instant and exponential. It is quite plausible that Google will find traditional automakers begging to have its stuff integrated into their cars as a platform- they won't be in a position to argue over things like customer data (ICE dinos have never been in that position before because they are/were backwards petrol retail chain elements and nothing else)- but the idea of jamming people with ads for free taxies is also delusional- serverless ad free alternatives to Google's sponsored search bs should be out by then destroying that model. The moron/psychopath model of business is getting harder and hard, so delusions of captured/penned audiences will not fly- people won't even see bill boards anymore. Immediate benefits of Self Driving: Radical reduction in deaths and accidents and associated losses- greatest safety advance yet Urban sprawl Traffic (and associated stress and time loss and deaths) Infrastructure strain Radical efficiency gains in logistics (will be coupled with 24 hrs deliveries and Q compute Hamiltonian route improvements) Pollution (and decreases in health related issues) Way better work life balance and quality of life Huge of money left in people's pockets to spend on aspects of the economy that aren't parasitic. Because of the affect/effect of on self-driving on radically regressive industries Self-driving tech also has effects that people aren't realizing that make it even more compelling. It helps kill petrol fuel energy faster than anything else. And that is a great thing because the whole point of petrol fuel energy past about 1950 was to have a slavery based society. And remember in the US actual slavery only ended in about 1950. Petrol fuel energy in practice and intent has been slavery part II, a source of massive artificial scarcity the greatest driver of risk of nuclear war because of the global instability it creates through driving displacement of peoples and creating scarcity in water and food and driving unnecessary wars and financial instability due to its horrid scarcity inducing economics. So self driving cars will: Put an end to slavery by another name Contribute radically to global security Reduce the cost of water and food and increase access while reducing hunger Help reverse climate change and climate instability Help the necessary push for high indexed guaranteed annual incomes and the end to the phony wage slavery based economy we've had as a place holder since formal wage slavery capitalism died 50 years ago- so in essence this making a huge huge difference in moving the West toward a freedom model and away from a slavery model- and again for the whiners about big government get a clue, big business is a delusion- its all big government has been forever, and it never make sense to get romantic about how bright or aware the typical business mind is. Hits parasitic enslaving industries including petrol and auto insurers- undermines their waste of capital and fraud and their hollowing out of public sector. The rise of tech solutions and transparency has likely already saved the world from another stupid petrol bail-out war. Some great signs include the biggest 4 coal producers recently going bankrupt. Should happen to shale producers soon- they aren't and will never be economically competitive again, more non competitive with each year and can't rely on subsides with increasing transparency and divestment movements. There will be hell to pay coming from the Texas Energy Sector moving the US into the number 2 position in the world behind China as result of petrol fuel/energy being able to hollow the public sector and generally impoverish such that the US is compelled to use defensive tariffs to protect that backwards industry (when it should be dismantling it faster than ever) also exposes the industry holding the US public sector hostage to the point that US power in the world was displaced- China dropped it tariffs- showing dominance. Another fantastic sign EU moving forward with ban on Diesel to take effect in a few years. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-27/diesel-cars-to-die-out-in-tesla-like-future-eu-regulator-says
