About half a million Tesla Model 3 reservations.

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Benz, Oct 13, 2017.

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  1. God

    God Member

    If issues are too be reported, what IS a good source? I would argue reddit the best source...In some cases you can see the a persons post history and even see them state they're a SpaceX/Tesla employee...Despite having a NDA, they feel safe enough to post on reddit...
     
    Jack likes this.
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  3. Jack

    Jack Administrator Staff Member

    I'm not very informed on production numbers, so for a frame of reference what do numbers look like for the S and X?
    100k by 1/1/19 seems unreasonable, but again I'm no expert.
     
  4. Benz

    Benz Member

    More general awareness and acceptance of EV's in 2018 will result in higher total annual Plug-In sales numbers.

    That means that the diameter of the pie will get bigger.

    If the slice of the pie remains the same in % (marketshare), the sales in absolute numbers will be more than the absolute numbers of the previous year.

    Therefore I think that it surely is possible that Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X deliveries in 2018 will be higher than in 2017 (but not by a very high margin).

    By the way, I'm no expert either.
     
  5. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Perhaps this will help put things into perspective:

    Tesla’s annual automobile sales totals:
    2012: 2650
    2013: 22,300
    2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
    2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
    2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)

    I regard the figure of 100,000 Model 3's by the end of 2017 as an aspirational goal, rather than a realistic estimate. For what it's worth, InsideEVs' editor Jay Cole, forum member Nix, and myself all guessed ~20,000 Model 3's by end of year. Let me emphasize that is just a guess, and I'll be surprised if the actual figure is very close to that.

    I don't consider myself an expert, either. It's entirely clear that both Jay Cole and Nix are considerably more knowledgeable about the automotive industry than I.
     
    Domenick likes this.
  6. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    That's a handy chart. Really helps to see the numbers laid out like that.
     
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  8. Jack

    Jack Administrator Staff Member

    I agree, very helpful. Still curious how adding the model 3 (and Semi truck) will affect production numbers across the board. Maybe they can make 200k cars a year, but what portion will each model have?
     
  9. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    I think the goal for Fremont is 500,000 units a year. That would be 25,000 Model S, 25,000 Model X, and 450,000 Model 3. Roughly, of course.
     
    Jack likes this.
  10. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

  11. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    My bad for mis-reporting what Jay Cole's guess/prediction was. He said just a day or two ago that his earlier guesstimate was ~25,000-35,000.

    Mea culpa. If I'm going to quote Jay, I should do better at remembering what he actually said. :oops:

    But I see I'm not the only one. If you follow the link that Domenick posted, what Jay actually wrote was 25,000-35,000.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2017
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  13. Marcel_g

    Marcel_g Member

    My take is that you can't look at 260 vs 1500 as a some kind of ratio to predict how many Model 3s they're going to build. Tesla learned a lot of lessons with the S and X, and designed the Model 3 to be more easily manufactured. The S pretty much had to be the best sedan ever made in order to overcome the negative mythologies of EVs at the time, so any issues with regards to ease of manufacture were secondary. Tesla probably would've failed if the S wasn't the best ever.

    The critical battery manufacturing plant is up and running on time. The production lines are ready to go. So it sounds like the Model 3 manufacturing machine is 99% ready to go, but their timeline was very aggressive, so they're working out some bugs and supplier issues. The whole production system can only get running once those issues are sorted out, so initial production isn't really a rate of cars per week, because it's going start & stop right now. I would think they have to stop the production every time they have a bug or a flaw, but once those things are fixed, the whole thing can get going to full speed pretty quickly. As soon as those 1 or 2 suppliers with issues are sorted out, and the initial bugs are fixed, the product will ramp up very quickly.

    so I expect them to product more than 200,000 Model 3s in 2018. Possibly 300,000.

    It looks like they're shipping a product with a minimal feature set at first, since most of the features can be added via wireless updates, which is smart. It lets them get more cars out the door faster, and people with early cars will feel like their cars are constantly getting better.
     
    Counterpoint likes this.
  14. God

    God Member

    I'm just going to get my popcorn ready...Who will be the first to predict 600,000 produced in 2018? I'm seeing a trend here and if Vegas would accept bets on this, they could clearly make a killing come 1/1/19... :)
     
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  15. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    I can't see 600,000 in 2018. Even if they somehow managed to get rumored Magna producing in Europe for the whole year. Even in 2019, I don't think they'll hit those numbers.
     
  16. Benz

    Benz Member

    The date for the Q3 2017 Shareholder Letter and the Conference Call is on November 1st 2017.

    During Q&A journalists will surely ask about the progress regarding the production of the Tesla Model 3.

    Then we shall have more info to chew on.

    They surely will solve all the problems. The question is how soon can they do that.
     
  17. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    My assumption is the ramp-up will happen roughly as described, but production bottlenecks delay when it will start. So I figure they're a month or two behind where they want to be. That means initial deliveries at end of November or December instead of now, and 5000 a week by end of January or February instead of December. That would lead to around 220,000 Model 3s being made in 2018.
     
  18. vracer

    vracer New Member

    Pushme-Pullu,
    I'm a Newbie, and there is no disrespect intended here, but your number of about 185,000 produced is the very first "hard" number I have ever seen published. The very best estimates I personally know of have been in the 130-140K range. Obviously your number is getting close to the magic 200K "trigger" number on the "maybe" rebate.
     
  19. Counterpoint

    Counterpoint New Member

    @vracer, you can look at the hard numbers yourself. Inside EVs has a persistent link on the homepage to the plug-in vehicle monthly scorecard. That lists US sales for every electric and plug-in hybrid model introduced since 2011.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 22, 2017
  20. vracer

    vracer New Member


    Thank you, Counterpoint. My rough count makes it about 148K through October 2017. I will add 4K per month for this year's Ss & Xs, and 2K for M3s to end qtr. 4. This is tough math, I know, but it puts Tesla's output at about 158-160K at the end of the year. I have seen other estimates that Tesla will not sell #200,000 until April 1, 2018. That seems to be a good estimate.
     
  21. God

    God Member

    Musk did say he would delay US deliveries in order to deliver the 200K-th vehicle at the beginning of the quarter which would me you could get two more full quarters of the full tax credit, then it will start to go down assuming the rules are not altered...
     
  22. Cypress

    Cypress Active Member

    PNW
    30,000 to 60,000 for US sales.

    I think they will hit their initial timeline of 500,000 vehicles (s,x,3,semi?,Roadster?) in 2020. Possibly they beat that, but not by much.
     

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