EV sales numbers

BC-Doc said:
I’m not sure if one is available but I would love to see a bar-graph similar to the Bloomberg graph which shows the transition a century ago from horse and buggy to automobile. I believe (hope) we are in a similar transformational period.
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automotive-consolidation-update2.png


So why doesn't the motorcar adoption rate look like the classic S-curve, flattening at the top? Probably because the U.S. population was rising significantly at the same time.

74a477ca23e7d871f5d730ca376a700a.jpg

U.S. Resident Population
 
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Thanks very much for the slide— great research! I am going to print out a copy of it— I think it’s a good one to keep on hand for lobbying purposes.
 
Update USA BEV and PHEV sales as a percentage of all USA sales:

Q1+Q2 2019: BEV 1.27%
Q1+Q2 2019: PHEV 0.50%
 
The prediction is that BEVs will be 90% of the market in only 7 years?

I think that is much too optimistic. I'll be very happy if BEVs are 60% of the market in 10-12 years, and I rather suspect the market share will top out at around 90-95 percent for some decades. Gasmobiles and diesel light trucks will retain a niche application in remote areas, where access to electricity is hard to find or unreliable.
 
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I am making a number of assumptions, and following a perfect S-curve assumes all goes ideally. Life is rarely like that. But, it's the best I've got at the moment. Norway is already half way there, but with a much larger percentage of PHEVs than I show. All I am doing is trying to get best fit to very early part of the curves so admittedly the error can be large. But I've been showing the same curves for over a year now with little change. We will see what another year brings. Re: access to remote areas, do note this is for USA and there is very little remote areas that EVs could not access. Although you can't see it I set my curve to top out at 99%, not 100%, I just think those rare niche cases will be less than 1% while you think they will be 5%.
 
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Thanks for your comments, Roy_H. Well, I certainly hope you'll be proven correct, that I'm too pessimistic! :)

Yes, I can see that your chart doesn't quite top out at 100%; looks like ~98% but if you say 99% then of course it must be that.

I've seen some comments from people saying that BEVs at (for example) construction sites aren't practical, because there is no electrical hookup there. So that's the main reason why I suggest there will remain a niche market of ~5% for gasmobiles even in first-world countries. It's not all about people like the Unabomber, who live in areas so remote there is no electricity. That percentage of the population is vanishingly small.

But again, hoping you're right and I'm wrong!
:)
 
99% is of course just my arbitrary opinion. And for the record, that would be at some infinite point in the future. At year 2035 it is
98.8698716939%
Have a good one!
 
We have a problem:
  • Tesla cars are so efficient
  • Non-Tesla cars are barely better than the gas cars their manufactures already make
Gosh, you don't suppose someone in traditional manufacturing management might deliberately hobble their EVs? (My apologies to more paranoids than me!)

Bob Wilson
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I think that is much too optimistic.
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I hear you, and you may not be wrong. But on the other hand, a dynamic tipping point may be reached and the growth of electric car sales (new and used) may suddenly and unexpectedly take off (possibly as fast or faster then the above graphical predictions). Why do I say that?

If we had to depend only on consumer awareness of environmental factors and climate change predictions driving BEV sales, then yes, sales will be slow, steady, and gradual--generational. BUT there is another important factor: EV performance. Elon Musk is arguably a genius for several reasons; but in this case for releasing (roadster first in 2008; then the S in 2012, right?) a car not only more environmentally friendly (to attract educated consumers), but one that could smoke almost all ICE cars off the line. Young car enthusiasts from Maine to California, Texas to Minnesota, and Washington to Florida are growing up with the innate understanding that Teslas and some other proposed BEVs are HOT. And now there are the more affordable Models 3 and Y. Consider, too, the Cybertruck (and the other anticipated electric PUs.). Once they get over the design shock (give it just a couple of years), Missouri farm boys are going to want that truck, if for no other reason than to impress the school cheerleaders. If range and durability turn out to be as claimed, businesses may want them too.

Despite the hiccups and financial failures in the EV industry, I am bullish on the future of electric vehicles. And if true, we owe it mostly to Musk and his team (some of whom are now spreading out to other manufacturers). Consider all the many factors pointing toward a non-ICE future. That future is coming more rapidly than we may think.
 
tps5352 said:
...a dynamic tipping point may be reached and the growth of electric car sales (new and used) may suddenly and unexpectedly take off...
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We agree on that; we're just not in agreement about how fast it's going to occur.

90% of the market in only 7 years? Even if demand soars that quickly, I don't think auto makers are going to be able to convert their factories from making gasmobiles to making BEVs that fast. Auto making is a capital intensive business, and the growing disruption of the EV revolution is going to put a great deal of pressure on legacy auto makers. Some won't survive. Others will have to struggle long and hard to be able to come out on the other side without shriveling down to pale shadows of their former selves, as BlackBerry and Kodak have.

New York City went from a city almost entirely served by horse-drawn vehicles to almost entirely served by motor vehicles in the space of 13 years. Will the EV revolution happen significantly faster than that? I don't think so. It's true that the pace of change is more rapid these days, but on the other hand, motor vehicles represent a much bigger advantage (as perceived by the average person) over horse-drawn vehicles than BEVs over gasmobiles and diesel trucks. So I think there will be less pressure for change. At the moment, it seems most pressure is coming from government regulations. That almost certainly won't remain the case, as BEVs come down in price and become easier to use. But for now, most of the market isn't seriously considering replacing their gasmobile with a BEV.

Again, all just my personal opinion, and I certainly hope the EV revolution will proceed faster than I'm predicting!
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