Absolute proof that EVs pollute less no matter what their source of electricity

[KentuckyKen]

Now, before anyone jumps on me about cutting down the forests,

I used to heat exclusively with wood when I lived in Georgia with a Buck stove. That was way before EPA Cert for high efficiency/low emissions. But at least it was triple walled with two channels of fan forced air flow, so I got every BTU possible out of it for that era.
Getting to the point, it is well accepted that an acre of hardwood will let you harvest a cord a year without depletion or making any environmentalist cry. I was fortunate that the farmers around my home would let me cut all the fallen or dead wood I wanted. Boy, I miss that free heat and forced exercise.
OK, now I’ve drifted my own thread.

 

[DucRider]

Third, they mentioned both, changing battery chemistries and cleaner energy sources but failed to explain if they reached their conclusions by using current chemistries and energy sources or projected, hypothetical future technologies.

The grid getting cleaner is very well documented, and there is no reason to believe that trend will change. The move is away from coal, coupled with regulation/technologies that reduce pollution from coal burning plants.
https://www.epa.gov/sites/productio...emission_changes_over_time_2009_vs_2018_0.pdf
Or even more info here:
https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/power-plant-data-highlights

Battery research is constantly pushing forward, and compared to ICE's is still in it's infancy with tons of room for improvement in cost an performance. The goal of reducing things like cobalt is motivated primarily by cost (unless you take great stock in some of the marketing about social responsibility, it is a secondary benefit).

Any study that assumed a static model and did not account for future changes would be pretty much worthless.

I doubt that you would be willing to put your money against the grid getting cleaner or battery technology improving...

 

[MrFixit]

This is because the trees being burned have already absorbed an amount of CO2 equal to what they emit while burning.

But wait... By this argument, wouldn't burning coal and oil (gasoline) also be "carbon neutral"???
Hundreds of millions of years ago, trees and vegetation absorbed an amount of CO2 equal to what is emitted when burning these fossil fuels too, right?

The problem is one of timing. It took thousand (millions) of years to absorb that CO2 from the atmosphere, but it can all be released in minutes on an geological scale.

 

[KentuckyKen]

But wait... By this argument, wouldn't burning coal and oil (gasoline) also be "carbon neutral"???
Hundreds of millions of years ago, trees and vegetation absorbed an amount of CO2 equal to what is emitted when burning these fossil fuels too, right?

The problem is one of timing. It took thousand (millions) of years to absorb that CO2 from the atmosphere, but it can all be released in minutes on an geological scale.

IMHO, it’s not an apples to apples comparison. Coal, oil, and methane are fossil fuels which are not renewable and which keep the carbon sequestered from the biosphere until dug, pumped, or fracked back out.
Wood or biomass will cycle through capture and release of the carbon in the biosphere by either decomposition or combustion at an almost instantaneous rate compared to the geologic time scale of fossil fuels. Large scale residential heating at an affordable price is currently only possible by carbon producing oxidative methods. (Outside of a few small geothermal steam installations that while not increasing carbon, do increase warming.)
So for the near term you have to pick the fuel source that will be most attractive economically and environmentally.
Personally, I think the best solution is direct exchange geothermal coupled
with solar PV. My solar PV will pay for itself in 9 years and I’m investigating pairing it with dx geothermal which would be as carbon neutral as anything I can find. The problem is justifying its high installation cost and subsequent long ROI in my moderate winter climate. Champagne taste on a beer budget; the story of my life. Sigh.

 

[DucRider]

It is important to consider the source.
The burning of "forest biomass" to produce electricity was declared to be carbon neutral by Scott Pruitt. This decree was issued before the EPA had completed it's study, was entirely politically motivated and not as a result of scientific research.

 

[Landshark]

The grid getting cleaner is very well documented, and there is no reason to believe that trend will change.

The grid is getting cleaner, but the batteries in a Tesla or Clarity sitting on a dealers lot were made with yesterdays technology and yesterdays grid power. So using some fantasyland figures from an imaginary factory in a magic kingdom in the distant future creates data that should be viewed with skepticism. Quite frankly, it creates rubbish that would probably not be carbon neutral if burned.

Any study that assumed a static model and did not account for future changes would be pretty much worthless.

I doubt that you would be willing to put your money against the grid getting cleaner or battery technology improving...

I’m eagerly awaiting battery technology to improve. We installed lead acid batteries at our home for solar energy storage 7 years ago because Lithium prices were $1000/kWH. Guess what the going price is for a 1 kWH lithium battery today? $1000.
Disagree? Check Renogy, Liion Solar, Battle Born, Victron, Simpliphi, Discover, Master Volt, Smart Battery or Iron Edison. I’d love to put 6kWh of storage in my motorhome as well, but not for $6,000.

I’ve followed the hype with salt water batteries, zinc air batteries, solid state batteries and super capacitors. I’m ready. Somebody make it work, please.

 

[Landshark]

But wait... By this argument, wouldn't burning coal and oil (gasoline) also be "carbon neutral"???

There are studies which conclude that burning coal and oil are not carbon neutral. If we’re going to accept findings we agree with as factual, we may have to accept findings we disagree with as factual as well.

 

[Landshark]

It is important to consider the source.
The burning of "forest biomass" to produce electricity was declared to be carbon neutral by Scott Pruitt. This decree was issued before the EPA had completed it's study, was entirely politically motivated and not as a result of scientific research.

European countries have converted coal burning generating plants to wood pellet burning plants based on the carbon neutral research. Do you think Scott Pruitt had any say in the matter?

 

[Mowcowbell]

Whatever happened to Scott Pruitt? He's now a coal lobbyist in Indiana. https://www.indystar.com/story/news...-now-lobbyist-indiana-legislature/3511759002/

 

[petteyg359]

The grid is getting cleaner, but the batteries in a Tesla or Clarity sitting on a dealers lot were made with yesterdays technology and yesterdays grid power

Um, nope. They're always charged with *today's* grid power. As in, this silly argument is tilting ever farther in favor of EVs.

 

[Landshark]

Um, nope. They're always charged with *today's* grid power. As in, this silly argument is tilting ever farther in favor of EVs.

Read the words please. We’re discussing lithium battery production, not charging.

 

[ClarityBill]

I got a fully-charged EV range of 29.9 this morning: Seems like a 45-mpg gasmobile would create less CO2 than me today... Gonna take a long time to get that CO2 ROI.

I am sure these studies are not done on EV's operating in sub-freezing temperatures, using electric cabin heaters. Add the CO2 created with preconditioning or battery heating, and it would get worse.

I don't measure my KWH for charging, but my car was charged in an attached garage, so it should still be close to 14 KWH.

I have also noticed the cabin heater seems to hurt gas mpg: I don't think the Clarity is very effective at using the ICE heat for cabin heating.

 

[MrFixit]

I’m eagerly awaiting battery technology to improve. We installed lead acid batteries at our home for solar energy storage 7 years ago because Lithium prices were $1000/kWH. Guess what the going price is for a 1 kWH lithium battery today? $1000.
Disagree? Check Renogy, Liion Solar, Battle Born, Victron, Simpliphi, Discover, Master Volt, Smart Battery or Iron Edison. I’d love to put 6kWh of storage in my motorhome as well, but not for $6,000.

@Landshark - Although shocking, I will take your word for it that a 1 kWh for home solar energy storage costs ~$1K (and was the same 7 years ago).

However, the cost of Lithium Ion batteries in general have come down tremendously over the last 10 years. There is some kind of disconnect here.
Perhaps there is some artificial reason that home solar packs differ from EV packs, but I can't see why...

This graph is what is widely reported, and you can find the same information all over the place:



What are we missing here?

 

[Landshark]

This is why I question virtually all information. Visit the websites of the lithium battery manufacturers that I provided. Some are $1200-1500/kWH.

Perhaps the prices on the chart are wholesale cost for cells? I’ve heard this $150/kWH figure as well but I have yet to find anyone who will sell me a battery at that price.

That’s my reality. Not a chart or an empty promise of lower costs.

 

[MrFixit]

I don't profess to have any particular expertise, but a quick Google found this:
https://www.sigineer.com/product/powerwall-48v-200ah-li-ion-battery-pack-for-energy-storage-system/

This battery appears to have a 9.6 kWh capacity and sells for $2500 --> This would be $260 per kWh, right?

 

[David Towle]

I got a fully-charged EV range of 29.9 this morning: Seems like a 45-mpg gasmobile would create less CO2 than me today... Gonna take a long time to get that CO2 ROI.

I am sure these studies are not done on EV's operating in sub-freezing temperatures, using electric cabin heaters. Add the CO2 created with preconditioning or battery heating, and it would get worse.

I don't measure my KWH for charging, but my car was charged in an attached garage, so it should still be close to 14 KWH.

I have also noticed the cabin heater seems to hurt gas mpg: I don't think the Clarity is very effective at using the ICE heat for cabin heating.

You've got a 45 mpg gas mobile, just run it in HV and put in HV Charge awhen the battery gets low.

 

[Landshark]

This battery appears to have a 9.6 kWh capacity and sells for $2500 --> This would be $260 per kWh, right?

Yes, it is $260/kWh. With a 1 year warranty and customer support in China, I’ll pass.

Battle Born, for example offers a 10 year warranty and is based in Sparks, NV.

 

[Ray B]

Tesla Powerwall - Made in the US, 10 year warranty, quoted as $14,100 for 2 Powerwall batteries (13.5 kWh each = 27 kWh) = $522/kWh, but then factor in the Federal tax credit for solar projects and it is $366/kWh.

 

[Ray B]

A couple of other thoughts on the Li backups...

• The Battle Born and several others that I just peeked at use LiFePO4 chemistry. That's not a bad thing, but it is almost exclusively the Li battery chemistry used in China, so the cells are in all likelihood sourced from China, even though they say the batteries are "assembled" in the US. Again that is not necessarily a negative, except that the recent trade war includes Li ion batteries sourced from China and recently went from 10% up to 15%. That may be part of the reason for the costs not being low. Perhaps batteries with other cathode chemistry may be more cost competitive, but I suspect even with the 15% tariff the Chinese sourced cells would still be cost competitive against cells sourced from other countries.
• Not all 10 year warranties are the same. The Battle Born one flinches on the final two years if they are not repairable and they offer a 30% discount on replacements for 30 days. Tesla (and probably others) have their own limitations, so it is important to understand what exactly is covered.

Just a couple of things noted while surfing.

 

[MrFixit]

Just trying to learn something here...

I can think of a couple reasons why the industry graphs for battery cost are lower than the consumer reality.

1. The industry data is undoubtedly high-volume wholesale (relevant to cell phone and EV manufacturers). Residential off-grid PV does not enjoy much volume.

2. The 'powerwall' products are not just batteries. They have housings, integrated cooling, electronics to support charging an sometimes inverters. When quoting just battery prices, none of that is included.

3. When an EV manufacturer cites battery cost, it may also be just the batteries, booking the other support stuff as part of the vehicle.

I think there is certainly enough momentum with EV's that battery costs will undoubtedly continue down. There has to be a trickle-down effect into other applications like off-grid PV at some point.