Oct 23, TSLA Q3 report

I think the Q3 report will be a big watershed moment for TSLA. If they don't reach their cost savings goals set after Q2, could be really hard to find a path to profitability.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/17/18629166/elon-musk-tesla-money-changes-cfo-employee-expenses
And raising money with stock offerings and bonds just to fund operations (not to mention capex for new development) is going to become a lot tougher going forward.

It will indeed be a very interesting report.
 
bwilson4web said:
The Q3 data should be available after the market closes and then an investor call.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Exciting times, any predictions, Bob? Here are mine for Q3

Total Auto Revenue 2018 $6.1 B 2019 est. 5.6 B Down Down Down (Growth Company?)
Net Profit GAAP 2018 $312 M 2019 est. (400 M) Down Down Down (Sustainably profitable?)
CAPEX 2018 $ 510M 2019 est. $350M Far Lower CAPEX (Growth?)
DEBT 2018 10.5B 2019 est. 12B More Debt?
Shareholder Dilution 2018 170M 2019 est 180M Dilution of shareholders
 
Haven't had a chance/time to look at the numbers in detail. But if this is another anomaly, might be a good chance to sell for those looking to get out. I see it is already down more than $10 from the high of the day, just after the markets opened. Looks like Bob kind of blew it, if he sold just a while ago at 2.57.
 
R P said:
Haven't had a chance/time to look at the numbers in detail. But if this is another anomaly, might be a good chance to sell for those looking to get out. I see it is already down more than $10 from the high of the day, just after the markets opened. Looks like Bob kind of blew it, if he sold just a while ago at 2.57.
Click to expand...


I think Bob is smart to hedge his bets, he is already down severely, and he is too old to earn the money back so extra caution should be taken in all investments that involve risk.

I see Elon has already blown promise made on the conference call yesterday, no Solar shingle reveal today....
 
From CNBC: "Short sellers betting against Tesla lose more than $1 billion in single day as stock surges"

I'm crying for all the money those poor, poor shorters lost on betting against Tesla's success.

DJz4v7xX0AADzsy.jpg

 
I managed to reset my PUT price to $355.00 before the market opened on Thursday. I sold some earlier this month to pay taxes and tags and have another rounding sale planned later this year. TSLA closed at $299.68:
  • 10/14/19 - $252.00 sell (taxes and tags)
  • 06/18/19 - $228.72 buy
  • 03/29/19 - $275.00 buy
  • 03/14/19 - $290.00 buy
  • 03/05/19 - $282.49 buy
  • 03/05/19 - $281.10 buy
  • 03/01/19 - $294.95 buy
  • 02/01/19 - $310.00 buy
  • 01/18/19 - $320.00 buy
  • 11/08/18 - $355.00 sell
  • 09/08/18 - $260.26 buy
  • 08/29/18 - $305.00 buy
Bob Wilson
 
Stock performed exactly as expected yesterday after the surprise report. Big jump up in pre-market, faded a bit to opening, then high volume buying, probably lots of short covering (stops) by the big boys (hedge funds, institutions), followed by volume drop off and price decline. It found its low later in the morning, and then recovered on low vol to a steady price plateau and close just under 300. Very typical and normal behaviour for a positive qtr report.

Now should expect some more strength and climbing, next few days at least, as the bull analysts working for the holding institutions, spin their recommendation and narrative. The bears will wait until the dust settles, and the stock loses upside steam. Then expect their narrative to heat up as they fill their short sell positions.

But still need to be careful, as this is a qtr report, not the final with audits and the 10-K filings. So might take some time to see what the accounting provisions (fudging) are and how they are worked out. So have fun, all you bulls,... and bears... There is money to be made if you play it right.
 
Recounting the past shows no insights. Acting today on what one expects in the future does ... putting one's money where one's mouth is.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Recounting the past shows no insights. Acting today on what one expects in the future does ... putting one's money where one's mouth is.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...
Well, I have never held a position in TSLA, long or short, and probably never will. Better fish to fry out there, than gamble what Elon Musk will do. My initial interest was just in the EV technology, but the investment discussion here is good entertainment, too. Good luck to all...
 
I managed to reset my PUT price to $355.00 before the market opened on Thursday. I sold some earlier this month to pay taxes and tags and have another rounding sale planned later this year. TSLA closed at $299.68:
  • 10/25/10 - $327.79 sell (buy "Full Self Driving")
  • 10/14/19 - $252.00 sell (taxes and tags)
  • 06/18/19 - $228.72 buy
  • 03/29/19 - $275.00 buy
  • 03/14/19 - $290.00 buy
  • 03/05/19 - $282.49 buy
  • 03/05/19 - $281.10 buy
  • 03/01/19 - $294.95 buy
  • 02/01/19 - $310.00 buy
  • 01/18/19 - $320.00 buy
  • 11/08/18 - $355.00 sell
  • 09/08/18 - $260.26 buy
  • 08/29/18 - $305.00 buy
So I just got confirmation of having bought "Full Self Driving" which is fully covered by the stock sale. I still hold TSLA which of course in Q4 will have my purchase registered on the profit/loss.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
I managed to reset my PUT price to $355.00 before the market opened on Thursday. I sold some earlier this month to pay taxes and tags and have another rounding sale planned later this year. TSLA closed at $299.68:
  • 10/25/10 - $327.79 sell (buy "Full Self Driving")
  • 10/14/19 - $252.00 sell (taxes and tags)
  • 06/18/19 - $228.72 buy
  • 03/29/19 - $275.00 buy
  • 03/14/19 - $290.00 buy
  • 03/05/19 - $282.49 buy
  • 03/05/19 - $281.10 buy
  • 03/01/19 - $294.95 buy
  • 02/01/19 - $310.00 buy
  • 01/18/19 - $320.00 buy
  • 11/08/18 - $355.00 sell
  • 09/08/18 - $260.26 buy
  • 08/29/18 - $305.00 buy
So I just got confirmation of having bought "Full Self Driving" which is fully covered by the stock sale. I still hold TSLA which of course in Q4 will have my purchase registered on the profit/loss.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...
Listing your buys/sells is admirable. But kind of meaningless without the associated share volumes. Unless all buy/sell volumes are exactly equal.
 
R P said:
Listing your buys/sells is admirable. But kind of meaningless without the associated share volumes. Unless all buy/sell volumes are exactly equal.
Click to expand...
According to my brokerage, there has been a 14.8% increase in value that I would get if I sold all my TSLA stock. However, I'm planning to wait for $420 before selling any more. Buying on Friday the $6,000 "full self driving" completes our SR+ Model 3 and avoids future costs when the price goes up.

Bob Wilson
 
Last edited:
Good vol on Fri with the upgrades, so looks like it still has some legs. Not sure if it will hit $420, but look for vol drop off and the eventual range bound plateau. Short sellers won't engage again until it has peaked, or some big negative news.

I haven't watched the stock closely until recently (thanks to this forum), so will take a while before I have any confidence in its behaviour. One thing I like to watch, too, is institutional behaviour, but this is early in the qtr, so not much to go with that just yet.

And never know what the markets will do this fall yet, before year end. Remember last year, at the end of December? Now that was a buying opportunity. Those are the times I like to buy good companies brought down by the markets, not by their own fundamentals.

Good luck.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top