USA EV sales stalling Q3 2019

[David Green]

Wow, I am really surprised (sad) to see the USA EV sales stalling out so badly in Q3 2019, It is looking more and more like 2019 USA EV sales will see a downturn over 2018 for the entire year. Why is the EV movement losing its way, even with the first full Year of Model 3 at full production and the introduction of E-Tron and I-Pace? We are not even fully into a recession yet, although I can feel it coming soon. GM with a strategic strike to reduce their inventories... smart...

 

[R P]

Two things: Reduction of subsidies/rebate, and shortage of product (other than Tesla and GM).

 

[David Green]

Two things: Reduction of subsidies/rebate, and shortage of product (other than Tesla and GM).

Interesting that you say that shortage of product is an issue in the USA, the reports I have seen say Tesla has large inventory in all of their USA storage lots the last month, GM has inventory, Nissan, Audi and Jaguar have limited inventory.

Reduction of Subsidies I agree with you, but you can still buy an I-Pace, E-Tron (I Did), Kona with the $7500 rebate. I think the EV movement is stalling out worldwide, for sure in the USA, and China markets.

 

[R P]

Well, I know the Kona is hard to get,... not sold in all states. And in Canada, pre-orders today are for some time in 2020.

Problem is that in some areas, electricity costs as much or more than gasoline (parts of NY I believe). And in general, gasoline in the US is still very cheap compared to Canada, and other parts of the world. So harder to make a payback case for buying an EV, without substantial subsidies.

 

[David Green]

Well, I know the Kona is hard to get,... not sold in all states. And in Canada, pre-orders today are for some time in 2020.

Problem is that in some areas, electricity costs as much or more than gasoline (parts of NY I believe). And in general, gasoline in the US is still very cheap compared to Canada, and other parts of the world. So harder to make a payback case for buying an EV, without substantial subsidies.

Yes, I know Kona, and Niro are harder to come by, but that is a small segment of the market.

Yes, EV's do not make sense for everyone, we are a long ways from having EV's that could replace my diesel pickup for me.

 

[Francois]

Difficulties in getting ahold of them hurts for sure. There was a 4 months wait for the ionic and a 10 months wait for the Kona. I was someone who really wanted a EV and I nearly gave up. So I can easily imagine those who were once the fence as giving up on them. Lots of car buyers want to get their next car within the next week, not within the next year.

 

[FloridaSun]

Two things: Reduction of subsidies/rebate, and shortage of product (other than Tesla and GM).

That is a contributor. Another reason are relatively cheap gas prices. If gas was at $4 in the entire US, the EV market would be booming.

 

[David Green]

That is a contributor. Another reason are relatively cheap gas prices. If gas was at $4 in the entire US, the EV market would be booming.

Even at $4 per gallon, EV's are just not for everyone. I think EV demand is plateauing in the USA, unfortunately there are so many EV coming to market, and a recession coming, we are going to see a bloodbath on EV prices in 2020, if you want an EV, but cannot afford todays prices, just wait, things are about to get interesting.

 

[David Green]

Difficulties in getting ahold of them hurts for sure. There was a 4 months wait for the ionic and a 10 months wait for the Kona. I was someone who really wanted a EV and I nearly gave up. So I can easily imagine those who were once the fence as giving up on them. Lots of car buyers want to get their next car within the next week, not within the next year.

I think Kona is such a small part of the market, and people not willing to wait for one might buy Model 3, Leaf, or Bolt in the mean time.

 

[FloridaSun]

Difficulties in getting ahold of them hurts for sure. There was a 4 months wait for the ionic and a 10 months wait for the Kona. I was someone who really wanted a EV and I nearly gave up. So I can easily imagine those who were once the fence as giving up on them. Lots of car buyers want to get their next car within the next week, not within the next year.

I think Kona is such a small part of the market, and people not willing to wait for one might buy Model 3, Leaf, or Bolt in the mean time.

There are 435 NEW Kona Electric currently listed via Autotrader.. I really don't get it that someone would wait 10 months if they could just get one of those available. I have bought cars as far as 1300 miles away from where I live just because I got a better price somewhere else. Not sure why people are willing to wait months instead of taking a flight to a dealer that has one in stock.
I'm in Florida and if I would save $2000, I would even fly to Washington State to buy a car and drive it home.

 

[Aaron_Menchions]

It's cost, I assume. Most families cannot, or do not want to shell out $100,000 for an etron or ipace.

A base Tesla model 3 here in Ontario is around 50 grand.

Availability is the other. As someone else mentioned, it takes months or longer to get your car. Most families when they need a car, want it in weeks.



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[R P]

There are always people that will want the latest thing, whether EVs, Apple watches, etc, and are willing to pay extra for that. And then there are the planet savers that will also pay extra, but not for the more expensive EVs. But all these people are still a very small volume.

However, to achieve large EV volume sales, consumers will want a payback (over buying an equivalent ICE version). Unfortunately, those products that best meet their requirements are just not available (in a reasonable time). And, as has been mentioned, gas prices need to be higher.

The Kona is one example that does provide a payback. I bought mine on May 1, when the Cdn govt subsidy came into effect, knocking $10,000 off (incl the BC subsidy at the time) the MSRP. At 30,000 kms per year (my projected usage) I will get a payback in less than 3 years. Of course, the fact that Vancouver has the highest gas prices in North America really helped the equation.

And I obviously wasn't the only one that figured that out. The Kona was sold out here immediately after May 1, and buyers are now waiting until next year on a pre-order.