I see that the confusion/controversy over InsideEVs' estimate of last month's production vs. deliveries for the Model 3 has already been the subject of a few posts above, but I'd like to go into more detail.
InsideEVs News' latest "Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard" estimates Tesla Model 3 deliveries for the past two months thus:
Mar 3820
Apr 3875
Of course there is always some delay between production an delivery, but the rather large discrepancy between various reports estimated Tesla's production, and InsideEVs' estimates for delivery, created a large number of comments to the latest
"Sales Scorecard" article.
To quote one comment:
Tech01x
There were 2,040 Model 3’s in transit at the end of Q1. Roughly another 5,200 made before the factory shutdown. While quite a few of these may be on trains and the like for delivery, the 3,875 guess seems quite low. That’s not even the vehicles in transit + 1 week’s of production. Since the shutdown came at the end of the month, there was a lot of time for the vehicles made earlier to make it to delivery. Maybe the last week’s worth was not. So 2,040 + 5,200 – 2,000 = 5,240 is probably closer to correct. This doesn’t even take any of the vehicle production from the last week of the month, of which some of those were also delivered. It is quite possible the actual result is closer to 6,000.
Of course, it is possible some of this production is on its way to Canada.
And a reply to that comment from InsideEVs' editor in chief:
Steven Loveday
This is true for production. It’s actually about 7,000 last month. But in terms of a 2-4 week delivery window, much less than half of these were delivered, plus the 2,040. So, that puts our delivery estimates on par. We don’t attest to being perfect, but our Tesla delivery estimates have continued to be nearly spot on. We err on the side of caution, as overshooting and misinterpreting data to some degree can be bad and ruin our reputation. Most all other publications that estimate Tesla sales have historically been hugely optimistic, which is great since we all want EV sales to increase. But, we’ve learned that we need to have some reserve and reality needs to kick in. It’s never as good as we want it to be or as good as it should be. In transit vehicles (2,040) plus week one (1,500) puts our estimate actually higher than we published. Originally, based on that data, we were looking at ~3,500-3,600. We’re extremely confident with our heavily researched sales estimates.
WadeTyhon has already cited some of the reasons for the wide discrepancy between estimated production and delivery, but I'd like to dive into that more deeply.
Wade, are you saying that "production" merely means assigning a VIN? If so, then that means something rather different than what I thought. I thought the production number meant the number of cars that actually rolled off the end of the production line. But assigning a VIN happens at the start of the process, when a customer converts his reservation to an order. If "production" means assigning a VIN, then the so-called "production" total would include at least some half-finished cars, and would also include any cars which had to be sidelined due to missing parts or a need for adjustments and/or replacement parts due to a failure to pass quality control.
Outside of California, from VIN assignment to delivery often takes 3-5 weeks. A VIN is assigned, the vehicle is produced, prepared for shipping, shipped, arrives at a dealer, is prepped, and a pick up time has to be agreed upon with the buyer and Tesla
Okay, but the previous month's delivery number was almost exactly the same as last month's. So the number of cars "caught in transit" ought to be about the same... except that you also said:
In March, a late boost in production + a focus on California deliveries meant a really quick turnaround from VIN to production to deliveries of 1-2 weeks.
In April, deliveries were more spread out across the country.
So that's at least part of the discrepancy.
How long does shipping actually take, from the Fremont plant to the more distant parts of the U.S. and/or Canada? I thought the average shipping time, even if long distance by rail plus some extra days for staging at the delivery center and/or Tesla store, would be less than a month. Perhaps it takes longer than I realize?
I wondered, after reading all those comments to this month's "Sales Scorecard" article, if there was something unusual going on; if perhaps Tesla has started shipping Model 3's overseas (altho that seems unlikely, as I haven't seen even a rumor of that in any IEVs news article), or if there was a growing bottleneck at Tesla delivery centers, as the accelerating pace of arriving Model 3's might possibly overwhelm the staff of those new centers.
However, after reading Wade's comments here, and applying Occam's Razor, it seems more likely that there were just a lot of perfectly normal factors which added up to a surprisingly large number of Model 3's counted as "produced" but either still on the assembly line, or "caught in transit", plus what I assume (or at least hope!) is a small percentage which have been sidelined awaiting parts or QC (Quality Control) adjustments.
* * * * *
If anyone could shed some light on this, I'd appreciate the input.
@WadeTyon: Altho you've already commented on this in a post above, I'd appreciate any response or additional remarks you'd care to make on the subject. And congratulations on becoming an official contributor to the InsideEVs Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard! (...or Report Card, or whatever they are calling it
this month... consistency on that is rather lacking.
)
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Production is in fact up. Cars are on the way.
Too much going back and forth on different topics!