The concept of the Musk quote was that GM is using the Bolt as a "Carb Credit play" that is to say, the only reason they are making as many as they are is because they intend to sell CARB credits to other automakers. Which they will, of course. Tesla also sells CARB credits to other automakers.
https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-talks-carb-zev-credits/
But Musk doesn't like the fact that as other automakers begin making more EVs, he isn't able to sell credits to the other automakers for as high of a price.
But the thing is, since GM will be selling BEV credits, they will be selling them at the same reduced rate as Tesla. So if Tesla was complaining about the price in 2017, that means GM was selling credits at the same reduced rate.
Luckily for both of them the ZEV requirements go up significantly for all manufacturers over the next few years. GM and Tesla both have large banks of credits and both sell large numbers of EVs.
GM sells many times more EVs and PHEVs than the ZEV credits they actually need. Most automakers do not. And Tesla doesn't need ZEV credits since they do not have ICE cars. So there is the potential for GM and Tesla to make more money selling their ZEV and TZEV credits from here on out.
We discussed this exact issue here at length:
http://www.insideevsforum.com/commu...the-bolt-ampera-e-supply-demand-problems.145/
In any case, I personally would not call his number a prediction.
LG had already stated several months prior to his statement that they were going to be producing enough packs for a little over 30,000 Bolt/Ampera-es in 2017. That is
exactly how many were produced of the 2017 Bolt.
While there is no guarantee that Musk saw this, I think it is highly likely that he did considering it made every major clean-tech/ev news source.
https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-talks-carb-zev-credits/
US Bolt EV sales - 23,300
Canadian Bolt EV sales - 2,120
Reference
South Korean Bolt EV sales - 600
Reference
European Bolt EV sales through November - 1,620 (Estimating December numbers : ~1800)
Reference
Mexico Bolt EV sales - No idea. Random Guess - 150
Total: 27,790 sold in 2017
Inventory at the end of December, 2017: ~3,050
Bolt EVs sold in the last week of December 2016: 580
Combined production of 2017 Bolt EV/Ampera-e: 31,420