My take was influenced by an article I read back in the 1980’s in Consumer Reports on the issue. Summary: most mechanical failures occur during two phases of a mechanical item’s lifetime:
1) Early on, due to assembly errors or mechanical defects.
2) Late in life, due to wear.
The key is, most of the “early on” issues are typically covered by the manufacturer’s warranty. And many, if not all of the wear items occur
much later, often
after the extended warranty period. And to add insult to injury, wear items are often excluded from extended warranties. In short, an extended warranty covers the time period one is
least likely to need it.
Mike Busch is an authority on aircraft mechanical failures. He calls the failures early on as “infant mortality”, and calls the shape of a chart of failures over time as “bathtub-shaped”:
I made a decision back in the 1980’s to NEVER buy an extended warranty of any kind. If I added up all the warranties I’ve been offered over the years on autos, motorcycles, appliances and electronics, I’ll bet it adds up to around $20,000 all in. That’s like money in the bank, so to speak*, that’s available to cover an eventual uncovered repair. I also can’t recall any mechanical issues where an extended warranty would have helped.
All that said, purchasing an extended warranty can be a rational choice. If one is in a financial situation where they
can afford the extended warranty but
could not afford an uncovered repair, then the extended warranty makes sense. Everyone’s situation is unique.
*If I could time-travel back to the 1980’s, I might have made a game of investing the premium of each and every extended warranty offered. If I had put those amounts into a conservative stock or bond mutual fund and reinvested dividends, I’d probably have at least $50,000 in that fund by now. That would certainly cover any unexpected repair! Just a thought for the youngun’s out there!