Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

[bwilson4web]

Thanks,

But given that Elon sent out a company-wide email last Saturday saying they had not quite achieved profitability, urging employees to greater efforts*, I don't see how Tesla is going to show a strong profit margin.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/30/elo...nore-distractions-hints-at-profitability.html

Friday, September 28:

Ignore all distractions. One more hardcore weekend and we will all be victorious.
Thanks for being amazing.

Elon
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Sunday, September 30:

We are very close to achieving profitability and proving the naysayers wrong, but to be certain, we must execute really well tomorrow (Sunday).

If we go all out tomorrow, we will achieve an epic victory beyond all expectations.

Go Tesla!!
Thanks for all your hard work,

Elon​

There are two kinds profit, operating and net:

• Operating - In accounting and finance, earnings before interest and taxes is a measure of a firm's profit that includes all incomes and expenses except interest expenses and income tax expenses.
• Net profit, also referred to as the bottom line, net income, or net earnings is a measure of the profitability of a venture after accounting for all costs and taxes. It is the actual profit, and includes the operating expenses that are excluded from gross profit.

Based on Q2, I was expecting an operating profit. Net profit remains to be seen. I'm most interested in their margins for the different cars.

Bob Wilson

 

[bwilson4web]

some IMHO pretty insightful observations:

"Tesla Will Try To Be More Normal"

I was OK with the insights of an SEC filing of 1 of 2 Musk e-mails, the later Sept 30 one. But this 'report' from the article has not shown up in an SEC filing:

Musk will purchase $20 million worth of the company’s stock in the next trading opportunity, according to a person familiar with his plans. He’s Tesla’s largest shareholder, with a 20 percent stake.​

I see this as more of an effort to boost stock price but such purchases and sales require SEC notification. It may take a day or two to get posted, we'll see. Or like me, he might have put in a buy order too late and too low.

Bob Wilson

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I agree with you that Tesla has some tremendous advantages including the proverbial first mover advantage. Helping Tesla is the fact that the people would could be significant competitors are not making the investments that they need.

It has been reported, apparently with some authority, that Volkswagen is planning to invest $48 billion (!!) to ensure future battery supply for its PEVs (Plug-in EVs). That would be a very significant investment, and if true, would certainly signal that VW is serious about making and selling PEVs in large numbers. But even assuming this isn't more EV vaporware from VW, who knows when that will begin to happen? Former IEVs editor-in-chief Jay Cole said it usually takes 5 years to develop a brand new model of car, and even an accelerated timeline usually takes about 4 years. How long has VW been working on making a truly compelling PEV? it's impossible to tell, because they keep making EV concept cars (or concept renders) which they usually claim will become production cars, but almost never do.

​

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

PS: My main issue is that IEV lets their r**** p** d*** constantly attack other posters without any leash (aka moderation)...

No moderation? Then you're going to have a great deal of trouble explaining why a moderator here has told me not to use the terms "troll" or "FUDster" in personal comments directed to hardcore anti-EV demagogues like you; people who are genuine enemies of the EV revolution. People who want to see Tesla go bankrupt and the EV revolution die out.

I think it's wrong for Democrats or Republicans to treat their opposite numbers as the "enemy", but you really are the enemy of everything this forum stands for. You and your fellow hardcore Tesla bashers want to see Tesla go bankrupt just so you can make a profit on its demise, like ghouls killing someone and feeding on the corpse. And you're willing to say literally anything to help make that happen, no matter how false, outrageous, or even libelous it is.

...and defile every thread and article message sections.

A guy who keeps peeing in the pool is complaining that someone is dumping in some chlorine.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

bwilson4web quoted:

Musk will purchase $20 million worth of the company’s stock in the next trading opportunity, according to a person familiar with his plans. He’s Tesla’s largest shareholder, with a 20 percent stake.​

I'm not sure when Elon's "next trading opportunity" will be. I think people who, like him, own stock in companies they run, are constrained from buying or selling any stock in the company within a certain period of time either before or after any material announcement which may affect the stock price, which would certainly include the upcoming end-of-quarter earnings statement.

As I've said, I treasure my ignorance of financial matters. However, after many years on the (now defunct) TheEEStory forum reading posts about stock investing, some of that rubbed off on me, and it has left a lasting stain.

 

[Domenick]

Some interesting numbers today in the Q3: Deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X.

Also, for comparison to what the Bloomberg tracker says, "In the last week of the quarter, we produced over 5,300 Model 3 vehicles."

 

[WadeTyhon]

Some interesting numbers today in the Q3: Deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X.

Also, for comparison to what the Bloomberg tracker says, "In the last week of the quarter, we produced over 5,300 Model 3 vehicles."

As usual Bloomberg is an unreliable source for daily and weekly production.

Meanwhile the projections we made on Sunday were right on the money.

https://insideevs.com/september-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicles-sales-what-to-expect/

 

[TeslaInvestors]

As usual Bloomberg is an unreliable source for daily and weekly production.

Meanwhile the projections we made on Sunday were right on the money.

https://insideevs.com/september-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicles-sales-what-to-expect/

Excellent job indeed! I have no idea what you folks do, but it is amazing. It almost feels like you get it from Tesla itself But of course, that is not to be.

I, OTOH, was way off. I think both myself and Bloomberg tracker was losing track as Tesla is selling to anyone now, not from the reservation list.
(Preparing the crow for myself now. )
I have no clue why Wards auto was so off. Might have just misread the data.

Bloomberg tracker was quite accurate in predicting the total though. But it fails to predict Tesla's "hail mary" (as Lutz says) production weeks.

The delivery note seems to indicate that Tesla is done with the Model 3 organic demand in US. I think it is quite likely we start seeing European deliveries this quarter to keep up the sales pace.

Our Q3 Model 3 deliveries were limited to higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. There remain significant opportunities to grow the addressable market for Model 3 by introducing leasing, standard battery and other lower-priced variants of the car, and by starting international deliveries.

 

[bwilson4web]

Estimated Model 3 sales since Q2 2018:

• 6250 model 3/ wk ~= (100000 - 50000) / 8 weeks :: Using digitized Bloomberg
• 4000 model 3/ kw ~= (68000 - 36000) / 8 weeks :: Using trend line GoodCarBadCar

. . .

Just using a different source than the Bloomberg data I digitized along with an exponential curve from GoodCarBadCar.com:
https://insideevsforum.com/communit...ad-for-tesla-investors.3163/page-3#post-30965

I took the GoodCarBadCar July and August numbers and added the delta between July and August to the August numbers to estimate the likely September numbers. Then I summed them all to get 61,500 Tesla cars. As for the gross profits, I used three SWAGs to estimate the car gross profits. There is another revenue source in energy systems which could easily bring profits over $2B.
. . .

So my estimates for the actual 53,230 Model 3:

• 81,250 = 13 * 6250 :: Bloomberg VIN digitized
• 61,500 :: Using GoodCarBadCar two months: Sept ~= Jul + Aug + (Aug - Jul)
• 52,000 = 13 * 4000 :: GoodCarBadCar trendline

Now I know which method seems most accurate. So we can now estimate operational revenue:

• $60,000 * 53,239 = $3,194,340,000 :: Model 3
• $90,000 * 14,470 = $1,302,300,000 :: Model S
• $120,000 * 13,190 = $1,582,800,000 :: Model X
• ~$6,079,440,000 :: Gross revenue
• ~$1,702,243,200 :: Operational profit @28% profit (from Q2 for S/X)

Bob Wilson

 

[Adam White]

This is quite funny, it’s so obvious to tell those who are short sellers or just anti-EV by their use of “facts” which are just completely made up.
Like the first thread that says most model 3 sales are from Model S/X owners trading down due to lack of tax credit. However Tesla posts numbers of Model 3 owners who are new vs repeat buyers, so that statement was all crap.
They can lie, make up facts, etc, but the momentum is here and it’s not going anywhere. I have a model 3, my first Tesla, or electric car, and I will never go back. There is no need for Gas cars anymore. It costs about 1/5 to fill my car in electricity vs gas. There are superchargers anywhere I need to go long distance. Why would I need gas?
So, come on short sellers, sell your soul to make a little profit. Damage the future of our environment and a company trying to save it, damage it with lies and false facts, and see if you can make a quick buck. You’re all pretty disgusting, and show how pathetic the role of short sellers can be.

 

[Adam White]

Forget profits, I hope Tesla doesn’t post huge profits. I hope they reinvest all of that money and run at a loss as long as possible. That’s the best way to grow and improve and innovate. Most large companies don’t try to post massive profits. They have large income, and they reinvest most of it, if not all, and operate neutral or negative to help grow.

Why the microscope on Tesla vs other companies? Oh, duh, short selling. Gotcha.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

This is quite funny, it’s so obvious to tell those who are short sellers or just anti-EV by their use of “facts” which are just completely made up.
Like the first thread that says most model 3 sales are from Model S/X owners trading down due to lack of tax credit. However Tesla posts numbers of Model 3 owners who are new vs repeat buyers, so that statement was all crap.
They can lie, make up facts, etc, but the momentum is here and it’s not going anywhere. I have a model 3, my first Tesla, or electric car, and I will never go back. There is no need for Gas cars anymore. It costs about 1/5 to fill my car in electricity vs gas. There are superchargers anywhere I need to go long distance. Why would I need gas?
So, come on short sellers, sell your soul to make a little profit. Damage the future of our environment and a company trying to save it, damage it with lies and false facts, and see if you can make a quick buck. You’re all pretty disgusting, and show how pathetic the role of short sellers can be.

"It costs about 1/5 to fill my car in electricity vs gas. There are superchargers anywhere I need to go long distance. Why would I need gas?"
- Were you driving a Hummer before downsizing to a Model 3? Walk us through you rmath.
Hint: A Toyota Camry hybrid goes 52 mpg. An Ioniq hybrid, almost same size as MOdel 3, goes 55-58 mpg.

If you are getting really cheap electricity, chances are it is coal powered.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

So my estimates for the actual 53,230 Model 3:

• 81,250 = 13 * 6250 :: Bloomberg VIN digitized
• 61,500 :: Using GoodCarBadCar two months: Sept ~= Jul + Aug + (Aug - Jul)
• 52,000 = 13 * 4000 :: GoodCarBadCar trendline

Now I know which method seems most accurate. So we can now estimate operational revenue:

• $60,000 * 53,239 = $3,194,340,000 :: Model 3
• $90,000 * 14,470 = $1,302,300,000 :: Model S
• $120,000 * 13,190 = $1,582,800,000 :: Model X
• ~$6,079,440,000 :: Gross revenue
• ~$1,702,243,200 :: Operational profit @28% profit (from Q2 for S/X)

Bob Wilson

Come one! I recall you guessed 65K total deliveries. Now you are acting like you can be an analyst too!

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

InsideEVs has released its delivery estimates for September:

By our estimations, Tesla sold an epic 22,250 Model 3s in September in the U.S.
​

The serial Tesla bashers are gonna have to move their goal posts way, waaaaaaaaaay back this time!


And it's not just the five-digit Model 3 deliveries, either. The upsurge in Model S and Model X deliveries clearly refute the serial bashers' claims that the Model 3 is going to steal sales from the MS and MX. They'll have to move the goal posts on that bit of FUD, too!

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Hint: A Toyota Camry hybrid goes 52 mpg. An Ioniq hybrid, almost same size as MOdel 3, goes 55-58 mpg.

Reality check: Fleet average MPG for American cars is about 26 MPG.

I'm pretty sure he was comparing his BEV to a gasmobile, not to a different type of EV, such as the HEVs you named. Of course you knew that, so your comment is just another of your attempts to sabotage meaningful discussion, innit?

 

[bwilson4web]

Come one! I recall you guessed 65K total deliveries. Now you are acting like you can be an analyst too!

A retired engineer, you wouldn’t understand.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Reality check: Fleet average MPG for American cars is about 26 MPG.

I'm pretty sure he was comparing his BEV to a gasmobile, not to a different type of EV, such as the HEVs you named. Of course you knew that, so your comment is just another of your attempts to sabotage meaningful discussion, innit?

Aw, so you compare to a fleet that is average 13 years old (made of many > 15 year old cars & trucks) and has millions of Ford F150/250/350, Silverados, Ram 350 etc. that typically drive whole day, Chevy Tahoes and big SUVs? May be just pick the semi trucks for comparison instead of a similar sized new efficient car, like what I did.

But thanks for showing the math used here!
Let's see the range once people start using the heaters in cold places to get a better idea.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

A retired engineer, you wouldn’t understand.

Might as well open a tiny fund and show up on TV! Anyone can do better that those "analysts" from Ark Investment.
Coming out with some ridiculous projections in a battleground stock is an easy way onto the TV screens.

BTW, the stock didn't do well today even though delivery numbers were good. That's how unpredictable Tesla is. I think there were few reasons:
1. Today shorts came back. They could not short on Friday and Monday.
2. There was over exuderance on Monday.
3. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
4. Few key elements were bad in the delivery note:
a) GAAP profit forecast disappeqared. It was there for Q3 and Q4 in the last delivery note, when it was 3 months away.If Tesla can't turn a profit this quarter, they never will.
b) Net reservation number went missing.
c) Admission of having finished the backlog of LR/AWD/P versions in the U.S.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Aw, so you compare to a fleet that is average 13 years old (made of many > 15 year old cars & trucks)...

Wrong as usual for your comments; I was pretty sure of that even before fact-checking.

The average age of vehicles in the U.S. has climbed to a record 11.5 years, according to research firm IHS Automotive. (source)​

Have you considered not being quite so predictable in that regard? All antagonism aside, "TeslaInvestors", I honestly do not understand why you make not even the slightest attempt to stick to the truth insofar as you can without sabotaging your attempts to convince everyone that Tesla is failing. Do you honestly not care that everyone knows you post almost nothing but B.S.? Don't you understand that the most convincing lies are the ones with a bit of truth mixed in?

And of course, it would be terribly unfair of me to use actual facts, to point out that an older BEV is unlikely to have significantly degraded energy efficiency as compared to a new one. That is yet another way in which BEVs are superior to gasmobiles!

May be just pick the semi trucks for comparison instead of a similar sized new efficient car, like what I did.

You were responding to a comment comparing gasmobiles to BEVs, and you did so by disingenuously citing figures from an HEV -- not a pure gasmobile. In fact, you bent over backwards to be as disingenuous as possible, accusing Adam White of talking only about the poor MPG of "Hummers". In other words, accusing him of cherry-picking right before you did your own cherry-picking by using figures for an HEV instead of a straight gasmobile. What a hypocrite!

Now, stop peeing on our legs and telling us it's raining. It's not only irritating that you constantly say things which aren't true, it's insulting that you treat us as if we're too stupid to notice! (◣_◢)

"Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure." -- attributed to Mark Twain

But thanks for showing the math used here!

I guess your fake "math" based on cherry-picked figures is that "new math" we hear so much about.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Two phrases for the resident quibbler:
1. Red herring
2. Apple vs. orange

The original poster is nowhere to show his math. Resident quibbler who admitted to be weak in numbers, shows no data.
It obviously depends on lots of factors. There is no telling how it looks in cold winters when you have to run the heater and the window defroster.
Once we add depreciation cost, loan interest, registration fees and increase in insurance premium, then Model 3 won't even come close by a yard.
But that will be too much math for some folks.

Hey look! I am filling up my Honda Clarity Fuel cell for $0! Infinite gain over a gas car. I can go anywhere I want to go, and still plenty of money in pocket to fly far away, even to distant islands across the ocean! I can eat anywhere I want to in my long trips; a fill up to 98% only takes me 5 mins, not the 1-4 hours at a supercharger!
I also like my full dash and the HUD on top! The back seat of my car is pretty comfy too.