Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

interestedinEV said:
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The biggest casualty however may be Elon's ego. He refused the earlier deal, forcing SEC to sue him and then more or less agreed to the same conditions. This also could have been avoided.
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So now you like Elon's defeated ego?

Seriously, you should never play poker with Elon ... nor me nor @Pushmi-Pullyu.

Pushmi-Pullyu said:
The question isn't whether or not there's going to be a TSLA short squeeze over the next few business days.
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Uh, I'm figuring not until Q1 2019. The reason is the shorts only have to pay interest on their margin call. And then the Federal Reserve just increased the interest rate ... probably not enough but soon.

Bob Wilson
 
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Y

Does that mean he's no longer a corporate officer? It would seem strange to me that a CEO wouldn't be a corporate officer, but having exposed my ignorance on this subject, I'll decline to guess. ;)
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I am not a lawyer or expert but I did take class which discussed corporate governance. As a CEO he will be a corporate officer. He is also a director. But he has lost he Chairman position. The Chairman presides over board meetings and generally he has some powers that other directors do not have (again the articles of organization should address that as also state law). So technically Elon has a boss from whom he may need to get permission for certain actions. Similarly, the Chairman could remove items from the agenda or close a discussion on a subject during board meetings. Again, actual impact will depend upon who they select as Chairman. If it is Elon's brother or friend, may be not much. If the do the right thing and chose an experienced individual with no connection to Elon, it may be meaningful.

Also in addition to the Board, may be Elon's new lawyer advised him to settle. This lawyer Chris Clark was the one who defended Mark Cuban and that lawyer may have said that. "this is case is not winnable and its best to take this slap on the wrist".

https://www.foxbusiness.com/busines...ormer-attorney-after-rejecting-sec-settlement
 
bwilson4web said:
So now you like Elon's defeated ego?

Seriously, you should never play poker with Elon ... nor me nor @Pushmi-Pullyu.
Bob Wilson
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I disagree, Elon was given a great deal and he refused, taunting the SEC to sue him. He could have folded but he insisted on calling their bluff. They played their very strong cards, share price took a dive and he folded the very next day. SEC had a much stronger hand and may be his new hot shot lawyer had to tell him that. The news articles state that Elon did not want to settle as he felt it would compromise his stand, but he did settle. I am going to guess if the news on Friday was that Elon had settled, the price of the share may have gone up, instead he allowed them to file the case and it went down. I am not sure that Elon played his cards well. The critical skill in playing poker is knowing when to fold. He should have folded before the case was filed.


I suspect he allowed his ego to rule. However as I maintain, it was slap on the wrist.
 
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interestedinEV said:
I disagree, Elon was given a great deal and he refused, taunting the SEC to sue him. He could have folded but he insisted on calling their bluff. They played their very strong cards, share price took a dive and he folded the very next day. SEC had a much stronger hand and may be his new hot shot lawyer had to tell him that. The news articles state that Elon did not want to settle as he felt it would compromise his stand, but he did settle. I am going to guess if the news on Friday was that Elon had settled, the price of the share may have gone up, instead he allowed them to file the case and it went down. I am not sure that Elon played his cards well. The critical skill in playing poker is knowing when to fold. He should have folded before the case was filed.


I suspect he allowed his ego to rule. However as I maintain, it was slap on the wrist.
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I think it may have been a discussion with Chris Clark that changed his mind. Impossible to know unless someone puts the question to him and he decides to answer it.

I can't help but think that maybe he waited until the weekend to do the actual settlement to time the stock rebound with the positive effect that may come from the release of Monday's numbers. Perhaps he thinks he can get a squeeze happening, though I'm not convinced the numbers will be enough to move the stock to get it into that territory. That would need the simultaneous announcement of Q3 profit. Then....maybe.
 
interestedinEV said:
I disagree, Elon was given a great deal and he refused, taunting the SEC to sue him. He could have folded but he insisted on calling their bluff. They played their very strong cards, share price took a dive and he folded the very next day. SEC had a much stronger hand and may be his new hot shot lawyer had to tell him that. The news articles state that Elon did not want to settle as he felt it would compromise his stand, but he did settle. I am going to guess if the news on Friday was that Elon had settled, the price of the share may have gone up, instead he allowed them to file the case and it went down. I am not sure that Elon played his cards well. The critical skill in playing poker is knowing when to fold. He should have folded before the case was filed.


I suspect he allowed his ego to rule. However as I maintain, it was slap on the wrist.
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The lawsuit was filed Thursday. It seems you are saying it was Friday, that caused the stock drop? Stock already opened low on Friday. Elon could have accepted it on Friday itself.
But I think this is ok; a quick slap on the wrist.The investor and DOJ lawsuits might add more losses and penalties.
SEC also added some tight ropes around Elon's loose talking and twitting about important matters. If Tesla and Elon make similar mistakes again, then the punishments may get more severe.

BTW, IEV is again deleting and moderating my totally legit comments, while posters like Get Real are allowed to abuse other posters with useless comments without any moderation.
Oh well, we live in the era of truth suppression. :(
Can someone please tell the IEV author that the title is grammatically wrong and also twisted from the real one, since it is Elon who settled.
The sentence below means SEC remains Tesla CEO :)
"SEC Settles With Musk: Remains Tesla CEO, No Longer Chairman"
It should really be ""Musk Settles With SEC: Remains Tesla CEO, No Longer Chairman".
Or if you want to keep the bias, make it "SEC Settles With Musk; Musk Remains Tesla CEO, No Longer Chairman"
95% of the headlines say "Musk settles with SEC".
 
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bwilson4web said:
With the weekend and Sunday, does your team get an extra day to work the numbers ... if sources are available? Or would having the month end on a Friday give your team more quality time?

Bob Wilson
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Since we are all excitedly waiting for Q3 Model 3 numbers, here I'm putting together various estimates we had so far.
Mine is also included. Lots of issues reported in the last minute deliveries, so it's possible Tesla misses Eon's optimistic guidance.
After the numbers are released, we will see how accurate each model is.

Q3 2018 July August September Total Tesla Q3 note Error %
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
IEV ----- 14250 ----- 17800
Wards ----- 3086 ----- 6000
TeslaInvestors -n/a -n/a - n/a - 35000 (q3 total)

* Wards Auto:YTD till August 37706
 
Domenick said:
...I'm not convinced the numbers will be enough to move the stock to get it into that [short squeeze] territory. That would need the simultaneous announcement of Q3 profit. Then....maybe.
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My prediction of a short squeeze assumed there's going to be an announcement of Q3 profit, along with very good sales/delivery numbers; I'm choosing to be optimistic here. If those things don't happen, then I don't see a short squeeze happening.
 
Tesla Q3 ends at midnight today. I suspect we'll see preliminary press releases on Monday and the financial reports by November 1. My only regret is not taking advantage of the Tesla $270 stock sale on Friday.

Bob Wilson
 
marshall said:
Electrek seems to think they will meet their goals.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/28/tesla-model-3-production-goal-achieved-record-quarter/
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Yes, saw that one. But Electrek is talking about production. We are guessing the new Model 3 deliveries. Last quarter, there were 11k (almost 40%) undelivered cars. So these two can be widely different. Part of he reason was obviously that only 14% of the cars produced did not require rework, so could not be sold right away/

I've used a simple model based on some data. So don't put too much faith on my guess, and don't blame me if the actual is lower or even much higher.
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Can someone please tell the IEV author that the title is grammatically wrong and also twisted from the real one, since it is Elon who settled.
The sentence below means SEC remains Tesla CEO :)
"SEC Settles With Musk: Remains Tesla CEO, No Longer Chairman"
It should really be ""Musk Settles With SEC: Remains Tesla CEO, No Longer Chairman".
Or if you want to keep the bias, make it "SEC Settles With Musk; Musk Remains Tesla CEO, No Longer Chairman"
95% of the headlines say "Musk settles with SEC".
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I let them know about your issue with the title. They say it's a riff of the CNBC title "SEC settles charges with Tesla's Elon Musk, will remain as CEO but relinquish chairman role and pay stiff fine"
While I understand your point, it seems CNBC and IEVs both believe their readerships are smart enough to know that the SEC was never CEO of Tesla, and so wouldn't be confused by the title despite its apparent grammatical incorrectness.
To your other point, yes, it could have been more neutral to say something like The SEC And Tesla CEO Elon Musk Settle..."
 
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Domenick said:
I let them know about your issue with the title. They say it's a riff of the CNBC title "SEC settles charges with Tesla's Elon Musk, will remain as CEO but relinquish chairman role and pay stiff fine"
While I understand your point, it seems CNBC and IEVs both believe their readerships are smart enough to know that the SEC was never CEO of Tesla, and so wouldn't be confused by the title despite its apparent grammatical incorrectness.
To your other point, yes, it could have been more neutral to say something like The SEC And Tesla CEO Elon Musk Settle..."
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Thanks! Yes, I saw the CNBC article was titled that way. I think that was the only one among all the headlines. And the IEV one. No big deal about this, but thanks again!

But setting the bar so low that it is enough if the "smart readership" understands it or not seems quite odd, IMHO. So, then all typos, spelling errors, grammatical mistakes, etc. are all fine. For that matter, most people understand toddler talk. So someday that might become ok too. Not a big deal, but just saying. :)
 
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Since I follow the "story" of Tesla Motors/ Tesla Inc. so closely, I sometimes lose sight of the forest for the trees; that is, lose sight of how the public at large sees Tesla.

Case in point: Both CBS Nightly News and BBC America News had major news segments yesterday on the SEC filing a lawsuit against Elon and Tesla, and Elon agreeing to settle.

A lot of Tesla fans have been saying the lawsuit isn't a big deal. I think I've repeated that assertion at least once or twice in my comments. Well, it seems pretty clear that the public at large does think it's a big deal.

Speaking of recent news, there's a new story at the InsideeEVs news site that Elon Musk sent out a company-wide email yesterday, saying they were close to profitability for the quarter, and urging employees to greater efforts to pass that mark. In other words, as of yesterday, Tesla's accountants estimated that the company hadn't yet achieved profitability for the quarter. So it seems almost certain that Tesla will post only a razor-thin profit margin. That's too bad; I was hoping for a comfortable margin, with which to whack the serial Tesla bashers about the head and shoulders. :D ;)

It's going to be interesting to see what Tesla's stock does over the next week. I expect to see some major movement, possibly both ups and downs in price!

"May you live in interesting times." -- apocryphal ancient Chinese curse
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
Last quarter, there were 11k (almost 40%) undelivered cars.
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Sez who? For your production estimate, are you using Bloomberg's increasingly inaccurate production tracker, which contrary to all evidence (including Bloomberg's own disclaimers) you seem to think is meaningful, or at least pretend to?

If that's the basis for your claim, then it's without any merit at all.

* * * * *

This was posted Sept. 21 in Bloomberg's "Production Blog":

The biggest problem for our model this quarter has been a dramatic separation between our two datasets. Prior to today’s changes, our model for registered VINs estimated Tesla’s total production at about 87,000, while our reported VINs model estimated a whopping 102,000 cars. We concluded that the reported VINs model had gone off track.

Tesla doesn’t produce cars in perfect sequence—we’ve known that from the beginning and our model accounts for it. What our model doesn’t account for is major gaps in VIN production. This quarter, there appears to be at least two such breaks in the normal order of VIN deployment.
​
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Sez who? For your production estimate, are you using Bloomberg's increasingly inaccurate production tracker, which contrary to all evidence (including Bloomberg's own disclaimers) you seem to think is meaningful, or at least pretend to?

If that's the basis for your claim, then it's without any merit at all.

* * * * *
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Just read the Q2 delivery note from Tesla, which you should have done before coming after me with your pitch fork.
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/n...sla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries

Important pieces from there:
* "Model 3 production (28,578)"
* Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X.
* 11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2

18440 is 64.52% of 28578. So > 35.48% of Model 3 were not delivered ( as some produced in prior qtr were delivered).
11166 out of 28578 is 39.07% in transit.
 
Domenick said:
smart enough to know that the SEC was never CEO of Tesla
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LOL!
TeslaInvestors said:
So, then all typos, spelling errors, grammatical mistakes, etc. are all fine.
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Except for mirth, I try to criticize such things in a private message to the author or using the "Report" function if too much time has passed. Yet, I had considered what damage an SEC under Bob Lutz, Scott Pruitt, or Andrew Wheeler might do.

Even in these forums, there have been over the top, emotional postings against Elon Musk. If these critics were in charge of the SEC, they might have sued to have Elon and the board of directors banned from Tesla, fined to bankruptcy, and imprisonment. There would be no negotiation but a long, drawn out, legal case with an abundance of bile embedded press releases.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
LOL!

Except for mirth, I try to criticize such things in a private message to the author or using the "Report" function if too much time has passed. Yet, I had considered what damage an SEC under Bob Lutz, Scott Pruitt, or Andrew Wheeler might do.

Even in these forums, there have been over the top, emotional postings against Elon Musk. If these critics were in charge of the SEC, they might have sued to have Elon and the board of directors banned from Tesla, fined to bankruptcy, and imprisonment. There would be no negotiation but a long, drawn out, legal case with an abundance of bile embedded press releases.

Bob Wilson
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We appreciate any reports of typos and/or misspellings. A couple of our contributors have a first language other than English, so things slip by. I don't even have that excuse and I still slip up.
 
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