What Did I Do Wrong? PHEV v Hybrid Ownership Cost

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scubagrant

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I've been comparing costs of PHEVs with hybrids and found that driving a PHEV within its battery range (electric only) costs more than driving a hybrid. I don't trust my result, so please clue me in. I used the EPA range divided by the battery size to get the miles per kWh then divided my electricity cost by miles per kWh. A sample result was 3.31 miles per kWh for the Prius Prime. At $.28/kWh (yes, California energy is expensive) the Prime costs $.0861 per mile. Its hybrid brother gets an EPA mileage of 57 mpg. At $4 per gallon (again, California energy) it costs $.0702 per mile to drive the mixed energy hybrid- about 18% cheaper. Every one says the PHEV energy cost savings will make up for the initial higher purchase price. My numbers say not true. So... what did I do wrong?
 
There are parts of the USA where high electricity rates and relatively low gas prices make a hybrid more efficient. As for your math, it is easier to just use the raw data from the EPA, fueleconomy.gov:
upload_2025-1-2_2-49-2.webp

  • $0.12/kWh - electric cost in Huntsville
    • $3.60/100 mi - BMW-i3 REx
    • $3.00/100 mi - Prius Prime
  • $3.00/gal - gasoline cost in Huntsville
    • $8.57/100 mi - BMW-i3 REx
    • $5.56/100 mi - Prius Prime
The problem I had was working 10 miles away from home. I could EV commute if the control laws let me. Not hard in fair weather but below 55 F, nearly impossible. Worse, it only charged at home at half the rate of the BMW i3-REx. So when I got home, it took hours to get any battery charge for "25 miles." So in real life:
  • $3.60/100 mi - BMW i3-REx (much cheaper to operate)
  • $5.56/100 mi - Prius Prime
I understand the Prius Prime is 'less bad' than my 2017 Prius Prime. But I traded the Prius Prime for a 2019 Tesla Model 3 Std Rng Plus.

Bob Wilson
 
OP did the math correctly and I believe that way, not the EPA sticker way, is by far the clearest. Directly calculate your cost per mile for each mode and then apply it to your use case. Here our electricity is about 0.14/KWh and gas is currently about $2.75. An EV (or PHEV running on elec) would be 4 or 5 cents/per mile and an equivalent size ICE that gets 30mpg would cost about 9 cents per mile. Interestingly, a pure hybrid like a standard Prius would have per mile costs essentially equal to the EV. Now, head out on a road trip where DCFC's cost about 45-65 cents per KWh and that reverses, making the EV more expensive to drive. But, holy cow, you folks in Cali have some high costs.
 
scubagrant said:
I've been comparing costs of PHEVs with hybrids and found that driving a PHEV within its battery range (electric only) costs more than driving a hybrid.
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You're used to seeking out a gas station (a close one or a low-cost one), perhaps waiting in line for a pump (Costco), dealing with your credit card (worrying it will be hacked), pumping the gas (hoping a carjacker won't show up while you're there), and trying to remove the nozzle without dripping gas on the side of your vehicle (deciding if drips inside the filler door are acceptable). All of this goes away if you can charge at home.

If you value your time highly, avoiding gas stations may tip the balance in favor of a plug-in hybrid.
 
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You need to also figure in the maintenance savings, esp once mileage gets up there. Esp if you do some your own, like tire rotations, cabin filter changes, inspections, lubes, etc. With my two BEVs insurance is about the same as equivalent ICE cars. I know that is not the case with all BEVs, esp Teslas, though (my son has one).

I also live in a part of NA with the highest gas prices, and the lowest electricity costs. Plus 90+ % of my charging is at home (@ .09/kWh CAD). So for me driving BEVs is a no brainer. And not to mention, I much prefer the driving qualities of a BEV. Can't ever see going back to ICE even if operating costs were the same.
 
"... all of this goes away if you can charge at home. If you value your time highly, avoiding gas stations may tip the balance in favor of a plug-in hybrid."

I charge the Leaf at home and come out way ahead with energy costs compared to driving the Toyota Camry, which is the car we're replacing. I get about 5 miles per kWh, my wife gets a little less than 4. So why are the EPA estimates for the PHEVs so poor? The best was the Prius at 3.3 m/kWh.
 
"... for me driving BEVs is a no brainer. And not to mention, I much prefer the driving qualities of a BEV. Can't ever see going back to ICE even if operating costs were the same."

At $.09 Canadian, you're right, it's a no-brainer. Mine is $.28 US. And with the EPA's estimates of no better than 3.3 m/kWh it puts ICE vehicles in contention again. I never, ever thought I say that. I'm hoping the EPA's numbers are wrong.
 
Yeah, maybe Canada still has real public utilities instead of profiteers? IDK. Like you, I really like the idea of EVs and PHEVs, but it is still very difficult to make an economic case for getting one here in the States. Much higher initial cost than ICE or even hybrid, then minimal or even no fuel cost savings. Plus, the inconveniences (lack of infrastructure and relatively slow fueling times compared to ICE) of public charging on road trips. There are about a half dozen EVs and PHEVs I really like, but I choke on the numbers.

scubagrant said:
"... for me driving BEVs is a no brainer. And not to mention, I much prefer the driving qualities of a BEV. Can't ever see going back to ICE even if operating costs were the same."

At $.09 Canadian, you're right, it's a no-brainer. Mine is $.28 US. And with the EPA's estimates of no better than 3.3 m/kWh it puts ICE vehicles in contention again. I never, ever thought I say that. I'm hoping the EPA's numbers are wrong.
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Raylo, every day I read about new battery technologies that increase range dramatically, are cheaper, slash charging time, or use materials that are easy on the environment. But until they can get those improvements to market, it's a tough call for some. When I bought my Leaf it was for a 50 mile daily commute. I've loved ownership; not concerning myself with oil changes, brake pads, radiator maintenance and the like. I can't imagine someone who understands BEVs even considering a road trip. That's why I'm interested in the PHEV. But again, if EPA range estimates are correct, fueling them will be more costly on top of the terrifying purchase price.
 
scubagrant said:
I can't imagine someone who understands BEVs even considering a road trip. That's why I'm interested in the PHEV. But again, if EPA range estimates are correct, fueling them will be more costly on top of the terrifying purchase price.
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The trick is to get the right BEV for the job. I have the Ioniq 6 for trips. And have done a few long ones, incl in very sparse charging country. It is still literally the best trip BEV.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-charging.html

And I have a Subaru Solterra for off-road to our cabin. It does not have high range or super fast charging (like the I6), but is very adequate for around town and short trips. But more importantly, it is also the best off-road BEV in its value category. We need a 2nd car anyway, so we are covered for all the uses we need.
 
Yeah, I see a half dozen of those articles in my homepage feed every day. They are mostly clickbait linked to me since I have shown a lot of interest in the topic, but with very little hard information or relevance. I am also coming to this like you. I can't imagine a road trip in a BEV yet and was focusing on PHEVs, like the RAV4 Prime. But the $ premium for those over the straight hybrids would buy gasoline for years. And as good as the straight hybrids are, the cost premium for them over the pure ICE equivalents is also a zero sum game for the lifecycle. People don't like govt. mandates and subsidies, but if we don't have them this transition to EVs will be long and painful. And $$ for early adopters.

scubagrant said:
Raylo, every day I read about new battery technologies that increase range dramatically, are cheaper, slash charging time, or use materials that are easy on the environment. But until they can get those improvements to market, it's a tough call for some. When I bought my Leaf it was for a 50 mile daily commute. I've loved ownership; not concerning myself with oil changes, brake pads, radiator maintenance and the like. I can't imagine someone who understands BEVs even considering a road trip. That's why I'm interested in the PHEV. But again, if EPA range estimates are correct, fueling them will be more costly on top of the terrifying purchase price.
Click to expand...
 
TLDR; For what it's worth. . . The infrastructure is coming. It's nice to have some standards before we invest billions and have to rip it out because the standard changed. J3400 will make this a reality, it's not like gas stations magically appeared on every corner in the US overnight, and the government did not subsidize installing them everywhere, yet . . .

I sold my 2016 PHEV Sonata to my sister. Amazing car, she just replaced the traction batteries, 3rd party, still expensive, but interestingly seems to have bumped the range closer to 30-32 (from 27). Not sure where Bob was on the charge time, but it charges in less than 3 hours wide open, so not a problem. She dropped it here for a few months, drove down from Montana, cheaper than alternatives while visiting the east coast in the winter :) . I also have all EV's now, but when I had the Sonata I rarely put fuel in it. I had a 10+ mile commute one way. I now have a 16+ mile commute, Yesterday I drove her car, and manged to make it there and back on a charge. Coasted into the driveway with a goose egg on the GOM EV lamp still lit.

Nitetime power here is cheap, 0.08. Though I've now put in enough solar to do everything, so not relevant for me.

It is cheaper to drive on a trip with gas than the BEV's by a large margin. Damn thing gets close to 50mpg, 600 miles on a full tank and a full charge. Two tanks of fuel fom MT, and sis stayed in a hotel 1/2 way with free charging. BEV, expect to pay $0.40 to $0.60/kwh, and expect the KWh you shove in the vehicle to be more than whatever the GOM on the BEV may say, or listed capacities ... Now that I actually monitor / meter everything. . .

I plugged it in last night at 1800, after my journey . . . Note, with the solar I strictly control my charge rate so I was bleeding power sparingly from my house batteries over to the Sonata overnight, based on house usage lower than expected, thus the charge rate was generally very low. The car will charge at about 3.6KW in well under 3 hours.

The RED line is the EV charging pedestal I have, Charged the KIA earlier in the day
upload_2025-1-4_9-43-42.webp

So I dumped 9102.5 KWh's of power at the Sonata. Pack is supposed to be 9600, and it reserves 20% for Hybrid mode, so I should be dropping around 7700wh into the thing. . . Call it 8000, so figure you will push about 10-15% more power at the batteries than their rated size. This will hold true for a BEV as well based on my real world experience. There are just power losses every time you move it from place to place. I have the same problem with solar, but I digress.
upload_2025-1-4_9-39-54.webp
32000 (32.0 miles)/9102.5 = 3.5155
Roughly 3.5 miles actual per KWh. Not too shabby, it's a pretty big car. Now to be fair I drove it with an Egg between my foot and the accelerator, AND THE BRAKE PEDAL! No A/C. No butt coolers. I only went about 8 miles both ways on an interstate, and kept it under 65 (There was a bit of traffic, not moving all that fast anyway). I average around 35Mph on my commute, right at 1/2 hour door to door. PHEV's are generally not as efficient as a pure BEV. Also the ICE will cut on if it get's cold to run the heater, and it will charge batteries.

I can get the GOM on the Niro to report around 4.8/Kwh round trip, but my actuals tend to be closer to 4 than 5. One thing I've found with the BEV's is that the Mi/KWh number are much more accurate if you don't keep them topped up, ie the numbers will drift down the farther you go on a charge. That being said I can easily get 250 miles (230 rated) on the Niro without getting edgy about re-charging.

I've taken several longer trips in both the Niro and the Kona, without difficulty, and drove the Niro from Phoenix to Biloxi and back 2 years ago, just to get a feel for it. Not too bad required planning. There are now several more fast charging stations along the way, and I want to roll up to my sisters in Rexford. Should be a fun trip, but unlike the Sonata with three required stops, one doubling up with the hotel ... Plugshare has me with Nine based on about 200 miles per leg. A few will be much shorter because of the lack of infrastructure along the way, and the charging times on both of my vehicles are pretty bad for tripping. Then again, I'm old and I'm never in a hurry any more when I travel, so . . .

A PHEV may make more sense if you travel longer distances and just want to get your feet wet.
 
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Is it really $0.28/mile in off peak time? Have you factored in any possible time of use or EV rates?
 
"Is it really $0.28/mile in off peak time? Have you factored in any possible time of use or EV rates?"

My EV meter use is only during the off-peak hours. The $.28/kWh is based on the entire bill of $26.13 for 98 kWh.


"I can get the GOM on the Niro to report around 4.8/Kwh round trip, but my actuals tend to be closer to 4 than 5."

You confirmed what I was afraid of- that the PHEVs wouldn't save me any money. Based on the EPA figures, my Calcs show a measly 3.06 m/kWh. Annually, with that poor mileage it would cost me almost $2,000 more in electric power (PHEV) compared to the gas powered hybrid version. Using your real life mileage, the PHEV would save less than $80 each year, paying for the purchase price difference decades later. I'm using $4 for the price of gas and 10,000 mile annually.
 
Raylo said:
"Coming" isn't "here". And it ain't coming anytime soon.
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Bullsh-t. Thats disingenuous at best, and you have no idea of what you are talking about. Within five miles of my house EVgo has built three (3) new fast charging stations. This area just happens to be ideal for EV's, and there are a lot of them running around here. Between here and Tucson there used to be one place to charge there are now two, and there is a new Chargepoint just on the edge of Phoenix. The number of fast charging stations here in Phoenix has over tripled over the last three years. Between here and Yuma I had to make it the whole way from my house to the Target there. Now Rivian has a station in Gila Bend, there is a Nice place in Dateland, and their is a new one along I-8 in Wellton that should be open within the next 6 months. Further there are now a couple of stations out at the edge of the city in Buckeye/Tolleson. There is a new setup on I-10 between here and LA, besides the one in Quartzite both are severely overcrowded, there are Four (4) stations coming between Phoenix and Indio, all have broken ground, this should relieve the pressure dramatically. I travel to show-low, 210 miles at the edge of my range. I used to just have to stop at the library on arrival and pray it was working. Now if I go via US-60 I can stop in Globe at the travel stop or I can stop in Payson using the north route at the EA, and there is an additional station in Show Low besides the one at the city center.

I happen to be a direct stockholder of EVgo, and have significant money in it, so I kind of keep up. They are not making money. I also have significant holdings in Chargepoint. Ditto, I've taken a bath. Long term, I think it's important to support companies that support infrastructure I want. Since you are so concerned with this I'm certain you also have Stock in these companies? Or do you just want to rag on the fact we don't have any infrastructure for you to use and expect someone else to pay for it? Perhaps if you twinkle your nose you can magically install stations? Perhaps a few billion more from the government largesse to build 10 more new stations?

The prices of DC charging platforms has plummeted over the last three years. J3400 conversion has just begun, the new platforms just need the right plug on the end of the cable. I expect some of the growth to actually slow, and simply fill in in strategic high traffic areas like between Phoenix and Indio. There will never be the fast charging demand that there is for Gasoline stations, since a vast majority of charging will be done at home, or on private charging in complexes where the rates are less.

Three years ago this map you could have removed almost every single station outside the 303 loop except for Show-low and Marana. Cooledge, Casa Grande, Eloy, Safford, blah, blah, *all* new. Further the reliability of the existing stations had improved dramatically in the last three years. Plotted my trip to Montana two years ago when my sister was moving there. Not doable without traveling around my elbow to get to my hand. Now? couple of long stretches, will need to charge right before, otherwise not a problem. These were not built with government handouts and will not shut down when the GOP takes over. Once critical mass hits (like here) with people owning enough EV's and traveling enough to create the need, it will get built. I'd give it another year or two to be passable most everywhere, and generally non-problematic within 5.

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scubagrant said:
"Is it really $0.28/mile in off peak time? Have you factored in any possible time of use or EV rates?"

My EV meter use is only during the off-peak hours. The $.28/kWh is based on the entire bill of $26.13 for 98 kWh.


"I can get the GOM on the Niro to report around 4.8/Kwh round trip, but my actuals tend to be closer to 4 than 5."

You confirmed what I was afraid of- that the PHEVs wouldn't save me any money. Based on the EPA figures, my Calcs show a measly 3.06 m/kWh. Annually, with that poor mileage it would cost me almost $2,000 more in electric power (PHEV) compared to the gas powered hybrid version. Using your real life mileage, the PHEV would save less than $80 each year, paying for the purchase price difference decades later. I'm using $4 for the price of gas and 10,000 mile annually.
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Back when gas was $4/gal here for a while, I did some napkin numbers, came up with around $0.25-0.30/KWh as the break even with the Sonata against 40MPG. 0.075/kwh here off-peak at the time, no brainer. Honestly you should get better than 3.06 with a newer vehicle, mine is rated 3.5. Depends on where and how you drive. Interstate 70MPH cruize A/C you'll get the advertised number. Around town, not too much stop and go, A/C average 35-40Mph you'll do way better. If it's all about money, I'd get a regular hybrid, 2015-2020, whatever body style you like. If you just want a new car, a couple grand shouldn't really matter. I always buy fully-loaded, so the price differential is much lower percentage wise. You can spend $80K on a new ICE vehicle without any difficulty. Bought all my electrics a year or so old. Niro had 250 odd miles on it, someone didn't like it.
 
Raylo said:
Great, unless you live or drive through this part of your map:

View attachment 23691

Or here:

View attachment 23690
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This is so utterly disingenous it borders on insanity. You selected two 80-odd square mile areas that have zero, nada, nothing on them. No infrastructure. No roads beyond what is shown. You want to go to some of those areas off that road I suggest something sure-footed like a donkey, and bring your satellite phone and plenty of water.

You said: ' "Coming" isn't "here". And it ain't coming anytime soon'. And again I say bullsh-t. It's mostly here already.

Let's blow out the map... Globe to Show-Low or Payson is 100 miles or less. You sliced out chunks of the map along 60, thru Fort Apache. Going northeast there are no charging stations between Globe and Show Low. There are no other roads either. What you see on the map. . . That's it. There are no gas stations either. As you climb down into the river bottom near the bridge on the reservation there is a rest area about 1/2 way. Then the southern slice of the map down thru to Safford. There must be at least 500 people that live there. The roads you see on this map are pretty much it. You get off them, you are driving on dirt and desert dunes. Bring plenty of water, stupid people die out there all the time. Phoenix is a big metro, but you get out past Tucson, you start driving thru a lot of big sky. Everything out thru Fort Apache into New Mexico is cliffs and mountains all the way to the continental divide. No people, no roads, no nuthin.

But if you feel like putting some solar panels, batteries out in the desert and hanging a charging station for some random electric 4-wheeler that is lost, by all means, nobody is stopping you. Bring plenty of water. In the mean time . . . The charging stations you see below are also where you can find gas along those routes. There ain't nuthin in between. So pretty much the charging infrastructure through this area is on par with the ICE infrastructure, and again Globe and Safford came on line within the last year. What is lacking now is the infill around high traffic areas that have too many EV's trying to charge at too few stations. Perhaps some of the charging companies are actually poised to make a profit in 3-5 years, as they invest in the high volume areas where they can possibly make a profit. We shall see. For now they are all losing money hand over fist.

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Raylo said:
Great, unless you live or drive through this part of your map:
Click to expand...
If you live there, you have electricity no doubt, so you are good.
Modern EVs average 250 mile per charge.
If you frequently drive that far, then an EV is not right for you currently available charging. Yes, sometimes you may have to go out of your way to charge. Most of these places are located in areas that are actively opposing EVs.
In general, no matter where you are, are you closer to electricity or gasoline?
I have to go out of my way to get gasoline.
 
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