Curious sales

[Roy_H]

May sales of used Mirai are up at 47 sold, recovery is starting from the pandemic. 11 added for sale. Average sale price $17,189 (based on advertised price). Tustin continues to command a $7,000 premium, but only 6 sold. 81% Toyota Certified which means they had extended warranty and 3 year free fuel card. Average asking price is now $15,508. 11 cars have been on the market for more than a year, mostly the cheapest available.

 

[Roy_H]

June sales for used Mirai in California are slightly up from May at 45, I guess I expected more. Cars added is 80, close to a record. When a lot of cars are added for sale the following months sales are higher as sales people work harder to clear their lots. Percent certified is down to 44% and also average price at $15,469.

You may notice that previous month's data changes when I upload a new chart. This is because I go back and re-calculate prior 2 or 3 months due to cars marked as sold being returned to the dealer and are back on the market.

 

[Roy_H]

I am very surprised that Toyota has not published its Q2 sales results yet. I decided to create a chart showing new FCV sales by quarters and you can see that the sales jump all over the place. Even worse if monthly. Since there is no official Mirai sales for Q2 I have put in best estimate.

 

[Roy_H]

Huge jump in both sales and cars added to the used Mirai market. 124 used Mirai sold in July and 112 added to the market. 72% sold were Toyota certified with 3 years free fuel. Average selling price $15,839. Iv'e been expecting over 100 Mirai to enter the market each month for some time because most are 3 year leased and sales/leases have been generally over 100/mth since October 2016.

 

[Roy_H]

I stopped doing monthly Mirai used sales because my data got corrupted and I couldn't be bothered to fix it. But I did decide to put new California FCV sales here:

 

[tps5352]

I am in my fourth and probably final year of driving a 2017 Honda Clarity FCV. You've perhaps heard me say this before, but this time I really mean it: I should be switching to a new BEV this year--most likely a Tesla Model S or X. (For various reasons I've pretty much eliminated other options--like Lucid, Faraday Future, Byton, Fisker, Aptera, Rivian, and Bollinger. Instead I'm waiting to hear about any 2021 Tesla "refresh" before pulling the trigger.)

Without looking at any studies, just going off "gut" feelings and apocryphal interactions with other drivers, my guess is that many seasoned FCV drivers have not kept up on, nor are they necessarily being swayed by, technical/economic debates over driving costs per mile as they consider ditching hydrogen- for all-battery cars. I bet that they generally liked the cars themselves, enjoyed the technological features, and relished in the generous free fuel allotments provided by manufacturers (probably the result of government subsidies). Instead, I believe, existing drivers are tired from the anxiety of just finding convenient and reliable sources of hydrogen fuel.

Here in the Sacramento area there remain only three stations; and that number all-too-often drops temporarily to only two or even to one working station. Sometimes all three are out of fuel or broken. I get by because my driving needs are modest. But those conditions are I'm sure intolerable for working people or busy families. Meanwhile Tesla keeps adding superchargers; the latest in Davis.

Meanwhile, articles like these are probably influencing potential new, younger customers:

- https://electrek.co/2020/01/16/vw-c...work-on-fuel-cells-to-accelerate-battery-evs/
- https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/mercedes-benz-gives-fuel-cell-cars-report

with presumably truthful(?) graphics like this (from Volkswagen), which I'm sure have been reported elsewhere on Inside EVs:

And then there are disturbing articles like this one:

- https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/1...-honda-clarity-lease-is-up-honda-destroys-it/

So doubts by both new and old customers about hydrogen as a fuel are reinforced by suggestions that the great California hydrogen experiment has ended up being just another smoke-and-mirrors government-subsidized boondoggle.

Well, that characterization may be extreme, overly-simplified, and unfair. I am not sorry I participated in the hydrogen experiment. But it sure seems like BEVs are winning the race, at least here in America. 2021 and 2022 may be "tipping point" years. Will hydrogen cease being a fuel for passenger cars? Maybe H2 will settle for a lesser but still important role as a "clean" fuel for commercial vehicle uses?

 

[Leomon]

I am in my fourth and probably final year of driving a 2017 Honda Clarity FCV. You've perhaps heard me say this before, but this time I really mean it: I should be switching to a new BEV this year--most likely a Tesla Model S or X. (For various reasons I've pretty much eliminated other options--like Lucid, Faraday Future, Byton, Fisker, Aptera, Rivian, and Bollinger. Instead I'm waiting to hear about any 2021 Tesla "refresh" before pulling the trigger.)

Without looking at any studies, just going off "gut" feelings and apocryphal interactions with other drivers, my guess is that many seasoned FCV drivers have not kept up on, nor are they necessarily being swayed by, technical/economic debates over driving costs per mile as they consider ditching hydrogen- for all-battery cars. I bet that they generally liked the cars themselves, enjoyed the technological features, and relished in the generous free fuel allotments provided by manufacturers (probably the result of government subsidies). Instead, I believe, existing drivers are tired from the anxiety of just finding convenient and reliable sources of hydrogen fuel.

Here in the Sacramento area there remain only three stations; and that number all-too-often drops temporarily to only two or even to one working station. Sometimes all three are out of fuel or broken. I get by because my driving needs are modest. But those conditions are I'm sure intolerable for working people or busy families. Meanwhile Tesla keeps adding superchargers; the latest in Davis.

Meanwhile, articles like these are probably influencing potential new, younger customers:

- https://electrek.co/2020/01/16/vw-c...work-on-fuel-cells-to-accelerate-battery-evs/
- https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/mercedes-benz-gives-fuel-cell-cars-report

with presumably truthful(?) graphics like this (from Volkswagen), which I'm sure have been reported elsewhere on Inside EVs:

And then there are disturbing articles like this one:

- https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/1...-honda-clarity-lease-is-up-honda-destroys-it/

So doubts by both new and old customers about hydrogen as a fuel are reinforced by suggestions that the great California hydrogen experiment has ended up being just another smoke-and-mirrors government-subsidized boondoggle.

Well, that characterization may be extreme, overly-simplified, and unfair. I am not sorry I participated in the hydrogen experiment. But it sure seems like BEVs are winning the race, at least here in America. 2021 and 2022 may be "tipping point" years. Will hydrogen cease being a fuel for passenger cars? Maybe H2 will settle for a lesser but still important role as a "clean" fuel for commercial vehicle uses?

Great post! I just posted something similar to this!

Yes FCEV are dead, and id argue commercial vehicle uses are not feasible. The cost to build out an infrastructure to support this far outway the pros of eliminating emissions at the tailpipe.

A better option are hybrid options or all electrical commercial trucks with battery swap programs.

Thats why I REALLY REALLY dislike toyota and their advertisement campaigns. They know what they are doing. They know the efficiency is horrible, they are just looking to recoup their losses in billions of R&D. Or I cant think of any other reason why they keep pushing this tech.

If a lowly electrical engineer can understand it, surely they do..

 

[tps5352]

...I just posted something similar to this!...I REALLY REALLY dislike toyota...advertisement campaigns....

Oh well. Four years of my life wasted. (Ironically coinciding with the last administration in Washington.)

Well, not really. The car was OK, easy to drive with mostly good features. But fueling was inconvenient and it has racked up significant recall repair time. We were "pioneers," I am reminded.

However, I am also aware of the "occasional" problems with Teslas and pretty much every "cool" car. I want a car made by Honda; but one that looks and performs like a Tesla. Since Honda's green efforts seem stuck in the mud, to me, could there be a Honda + Tesla partnership? Never happen, but what a team.

You mentioned Toyota with its Mirai program. Has Honda bee guilty, too, with its Clarity? And Hyundai? The California consortium of hydrogen car companies is located just 15 miles east of me in West Sacramento, California. I guess the projects to replace ICE vehicles with greener cars that still require expensive "fuel"-station infrastructure has proven, at long last, to be a failure. I get the impression that the Honda Clarity FCV program is winding down. (The all-battery version is already gone. They still have the plug-in hybrid, though. Last of the three versions.)

As we speak Iwatani is replacing its long-suffering West Sacramento hydrogen pump and infrastructure. Back online in February, if we are lucky. (It was the oldest in the system and inherited during a California-wide purchase from the original company--Linde.) If uses liquefied H2, I believe. Wonder if this expensive 2021 repair investment will actually pay off? At least I may get more reliable fueling there for the remaining three months of my lease. Honda Clarity FCVs will disappear from circulation, since they were all leased. But purchased Toyota Mirai and Hyundai cars will still be around for awhile.

 

[Roy_H]

However, I am also aware of the "occasional" problems with Teslas and pretty much every "cool" car. I want a car made by Honda; but one that looks and performs like a Tesla. Since Honda's green efforts seem stuck in the mud, to me, could there be a Honda + Tesla partnership? Never happen, but what a team.

All the reported problems with Tesla are cosmetic. Buy one that you can thoroughly inspect first and I am sure you will be happy.

 

[Leomon]

Oh well. Four years of my life wasted. (Ironically coinciding with the last administration in Washington.)

Well, not really. The car was OK, easy to drive with mostly good features. But fueling was inconvenient and it has racked up significant recall repair time. We were "pioneers," I am reminded.

However, I am also aware of the "occasional" problems with Teslas and pretty much every "cool" car. I want a car made by Honda; but one that looks and performs like a Tesla. Since Honda's green efforts seem stuck in the mud, to me, could there be a Honda + Tesla partnership? Never happen, but what a team.

You mentioned Toyota with its Mirai program. Has Honda bee guilty, too, with its Clarity? And Hyundai? The California consortium of hydrogen car companies is located just 15 miles east of me in West Sacramento, California. I guess the projects to replace ICE vehicles with greener cars that still require expensive "fuel"-station infrastructure has proven, at long last, to be a failure. I get the impression that the Honda Clarity FCV program is winding down. (The all-battery version is already gone. They still have the plug-in hybrid, though. Last of the three versions.)

As we speak Iwatani is replacing its long-suffering West Sacramento hydrogen pump and infrastructure. Back online in February, if we are lucky. (It was the oldest in the system and inherited during a California-wide purchase from the original company--Linde.) If uses liquefied H2, I believe. Wonder if this expensive 2021 repair investment will actually pay off? At least I may get more reliable fueling there for the remaining three months of my lease. Honda Clarity FCVs will disappear from circulation, since they were all leased. But purchased Toyota Mirai and Hyundai cars will still be around for awhile.

Like the post below said, TESLA issues are mostly cosmetic. The Core tech is very solid.

I think most manufacturers are either doing EV or BOTH EV and FCEV because they want more eggs in more baskets if you know what I mean.
There was a hydrogen fuel cell hype, but thats really killed off now as EVs have been shown to be a great alternative. While FCEVs have been left in the dust.

"Time well tell" and it has told us. The BEST FCEV Mirai can barely beat a prius

While the best EV, basically beats all the ferraris and porsches combined and has the fastest 0-60 bar none.

And the Model S Plaid is coming out..

 

[tps5352]

...BEST FCEV Mirai..

Not sure about acceleration, but I test-drove both the Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity FCEVs. The Mirai was OK. Fine car. But the Clarity was the better-built, more comfortable, and more fully appointed sedan. Semi-luxurious. I detected too many cost-cutting measures in the Mirai. The Clarity felt like a hydrogen-fueled Accord. (I did not try a Hyundai FCEV, as they were not available in northern California in 2017.)

...And the Model S Plaid is coming out..

Yes. I am attracted to the Plaid because of:

• 500+ miles of claimed range.
• Tri-motor engineering (wish it was quad-motor, like a Rivian)
  
• What I assume will be nifty new features.
• It's basis as a Model S, which I think is a beautiful car.
• The ability to actually pre-order one (which in itself is somewhat reassuring).

But it is unsettling, to me, that we really do not completely known about the:

• true distribution date,
• final external appearance,
• internal cockpit design,
• touch screen size and orientation,
• presence/absence of steering column controls,
• and many other features/specifications

correct?

And, frankly, I find the claimed acceleration, top speed, and cost rather scary. (It appears Tesla is in a little 3-way PR war with Porsche and Lucid.)

So like many people I am waiting to hear more about any 2021 "refresh" to Models S and X, and more about the Plaid, before I commit.

 

[Leomon]

Not sure about acceleration, but I test-drove both the Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity FCEVs. The Mirai was OK. Fine car. But the Clarity was the better-built, more comfortable, and more fully appointed sedan. Semi-luxurious. I detected too many cost-cutting measures in the Mirai. The Clarity felt like a hydrogen-fueled Accord. (I did not try a Hyundai FCEV, as they were not available in northern California in 2017.)



Yes. I am attracted to the Plaid because of:

• 500+ miles of claimed range.
• Tri-motor engineering (wish it was quad-motor, like a Rivian)
  
• What I assume will be nifty new features.
• It's basis as a Model S, which I think is a beautiful car.
• The ability to actually pre-order one (which in itself is somewhat reassuring).

But it is unsettling, to me, that we really do not completely known about the:

• true distribution date,
• final external appearance,
• internal cockpit design,
• touch screen size and orientation,
• presence/absence of steering column controls,
• and many other features/specifications

correct?

And, frankly, I find the claimed acceleration, top speed, and cost rather scary. (It appears Tesla is in a little 3-way PR war with Porsche and Lucid.)

So like many people I am waiting to hear more about any 2021 "refresh" to Models S and X, and more about the Plaid, before I commit.

Wow if u can afford the plaid im jelly! haha

i think in all aspects it will be a Model S with upgraded internals.
Musk and team doesnt have time to design a new platform so in theory it should look identical to the current model S.
New platform means new production line and he has no space as it is..

Tesla for me wins hands down vs Porsche and Lucid.

While its certainly beautiful the Taycan *cough* turbo just has inferior range, battery design and lifetime. And its also way more expensive. The repeatable acceleration time are certainly interesting however. But in real world, not all that practical.

 

[tps5352]

Wow if u can afford the plaid im jelly! haha...in real world, not all that practical.

Yes. I think you could buy a new Long Range Model S or X plus a new, lesser Model (3 or Y), for the cost of a Plaid.

I naively ventured into the Plaid "arena" on another forum site. People can't wait to get their hands on a Plaid to take to the track (hopefully) or back roads (an apprehension-causing scenario). I keep thinking about that poor F&F-series movie star who died in a super-car (driven by someone else). I take it you really have to know what you are doing to employ that kind of speed and acceleration. Is Tesla making a huge (liability) error in judgement?

I am hoping that the normal (already plenty quick) Long Range Models S and X get new batteries and hence another sizeable increase in mileage. That would be enough for me.

 

[tps5352]

I am in my fourth and probably final year of driving a 2017 Honda Clarity FCV. You've perhaps heard me say this before, but this time I really mean it: I should be switching to a new BEV this year--most likely a Tesla Model S or X....existing <FCV> drivers are tired from the anxiety of just finding convenient and reliable sources of hydrogen fuel....in the Sacramento area there remain only three <hydrogen> stations; and that number all-too-often drops temporarily to only two or even to one working station...Will hydrogen cease being a fuel for passenger cars?...

02/28/21 Update:

• I return my Honda Clarity FCV sometime before June. (Do I have to spend hundreds to clean and prepare the car before delivery, only to have it eventually "crunched" by Honda? I'd much rather see it donated to California charities nearby to hydrogen dispensers.)
  
• I've already (finally!) purchased a new 2021 Tesla Model X inventory car. (For me, the hydrogen experiment is at long last almost over.)
  
• The West Sacramento Iwatani hydrogen fuel dispenser (closest to me) is still being upgraded. It is now slated to be back online in mid-March (not February, as originally promised). Meanwhile, I find that I cannot remove Shell hydrogen dispenser pump nozzles (at two locations in Sacramento) from my car's fueling port after filling up. Something to do with the cold affecting the nozzles' release locks. (No problem at Iwatani fuel dispensers.) Plus the Shell stations maintain no public restrooms! Just two more nails in the coffin of my one-time love-affair with hydrogen. (Ha. ha.)