Honda throws cold water on electric cars

Discussion in 'Clarity' started by KentuckyKen, Nov 12, 2019.

  1. coutinpe

    coutinpe Member

    That is exactly my feeling! 600 miles driven since the last visit to the pump and the GOM still shows 289 HV miles left...
  2. insightman

    insightman Well-Known Member

    How many would purchase a Clarity PHEV if it was priced to produce a profit equal to, say, a Honda Pilot?
  3. coutinpe

    coutinpe Member

    I think you're 100% right. Why is it so difficult to add 1+1 and figure out the decrease in sales of EVs, PHEVs or even sedans is directly related to the dramatic decrease (except in CA) on gas prices and the increase (at least in CA) of electric rates? Some blame the American "appetite" for SUVs but I still can remember 12 years ago when many people was getting rid of their SUVs and looking for fuel-economy sedans due to the astronomic gas prices (my brother-in-law cursing at spending $100 at the pump to fill his Suburban so he got rid of it to get himself a Lexus hybrid) but SUVs, as it names suggests, have "utility", so people will rather have that if they have no problem affording it. But instead of having "the government forcing people to buy EVs" as someone here suggested, probably some agency should figure out why if oil and gas has become cheaper, electricity rates are up...
  4. Agzand

    Agzand Active Member

    You walk in the Bay Area, and you basically see the electrical grid of a third world country. Rotten wood posts, wires in every direction, trees hanging over transmission lines, etc. The utility has milked the existing grid as long as they can and paid executives bonuses and shareholder dividends, now they have all these problems with fires and black outs, because the infrastructure is depleted. Guess who will be paying for upgrading the grid. It has little to do with gas prices.
  5. craze1cars

    craze1cars Well-Known Member

    Smart CEO. Why on earth should they put any real effort into selling vehicles that appeal to 2% of the world’s population? And are too expensive to really profit from. Senseless. A key to business success is to find your customer first. Honda has done this...their potential customers are the 98% of car shoppers who seek out gasoline powered vehicles. If I were at the helm of a company of that size, I’d be promoting sales to the 98%, not the 2%. That’s how a leader maximizes sales and profit.

    If/when EVs actually take off, Honda can jump on. They have the resources. The technology of building the car is simple, they can do it quick when the market takes off. It’s the energy storage and infrastructure that is not simple. Honda is smartly going to sit on the sidelines and wait for that to sort out. Then they might get back into the game.
  6. Landshark

    Landshark Active Member

    I’ll go with “very few” since they’re not selling well with a $7500 tax credit, Honda incentives between $4K-6K and state rebates from $1500-5000.
    insightman and craze1cars like this.
  7. Landshark

    Landshark Active Member

    Partly because we are using less of the cheap fuels to generate electricity and more of the expensive ones, think solar. I have it on my home. It wasn’t cheap and it doesn’t work well at night, in the winter or on cloudy days.

    Is it really surprising that the state with the most electric cars has electric rates that are 45% higher than the national average?
  8. insightman

    insightman Well-Known Member

    The recent articles quoted on this forum say Honda is definitely pursuing electric cars--for Europe and China. Markets that don't demand electric cars will get hybrids.

    When I learned that my pining for the Honda e would go unfulfilled, I expected to see an electric HR-V variant instead. That car is, indeed, becoming a reality--for China.
  9. Agzand

    Agzand Active Member

    In 2008, Panasonic released the G1, the first M43 mirrorless interchangeable camera. Looking at the technology, I decided that this will be the future and purchased one. The mirrorless market kept growing and M43 increased market share while canon and Nikon, the two biggest players ignored it. Some predicted that they will go out of business, but they kept selling their SLRs. Finally last year, 10 years after my G1, both Canon and Nikon released their mirror less system. Now future looks grim for my M43 system and thousands of dollars that I have invested in it. You can find other examples with PCs and cellphones. Bottom line is that it is not about who enters the market first, but who makes the best product and offers the best technology in a mature market.
  10. jdonalds

    jdonalds Well-Known Member

    My take on the future of EVs is this. If I assume just small improvements in LiOn batteries the interest in EVs will slowly grow as the joy, reliability, and lower cost begins to sink in with people. They will begin to hear so many positive stories from friends, relatives, and neighbors they will become curious and interested in buying one for themselves. If I assume major battery improvements allowing cars to recharge as quickly as their ICE counterparts that will accelerate the growth of the EV market.

    Right now most EVs and PHEVs are losing money for the manufacturers. They are not promoting them, nor do the sales staff know much about them. But most of the cost issue is wrapped up in the batteries. If battery technology cuts the cost that will be another major stepping stone.

    I also believe January 1, 2020 will usher in a step up in EV sales. This is due to a regulation change in Europe that takes effect in 2020 so manufacturers are holding back on shipments this year so they can move them into 2020 to increase their annual volume. I don't know the details but I've heard this from several podcasts.

    Somewhere down the line the scales will tip and electric cars will match and exceed ICE sales. It may be 5 years from now but it will happen. There's just too much to like about electric cars and the world will catch EV fever sooner or later.
  11. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    That's the sound of a major company falling behind during a disruptive tech revolution. If that is really the corporate belief, and if they don't change that soon, then you can put Honda on the list of those current automotive market leaders which won't survive the EV revolution.

    Any industry watcher that's capable of objective observation will note the exponential rise of annual BEV sales, and how that's now following the classic "S-curve" of adoption of new tech during a disruptive tech revolution.

    In 15 years, probably less than 10% of the automobile market will still be gasmobiles.

    The situation with the BEV market in Japan is complex -- that is, there are significant barriers -- because they have had a shortage of electricity since they shut down nearly all their nuclear power plants. But Japan can't say an "island" forever during the EV revolution; eventually Japan has got to solve its electricity shortage, and it will have to move to BEVs replacing gasmobiles just like the rest of the world.

    Japan ought to be making a national effort to develop a new type of safer nuclear reactor, and it ought to be investing heavily in installing large solar power farms in the uninhabitable regions of their islands, plus large offshore wind farms. Sadly, none of those is happening. But I expect one or more of them to start happening soon. The Japanese are much better than we Americans at long-term planning, and it's a surprise to me that they seem to be stagnating in that regard; that they haven't yet started investing in long-term solutions to their chronic shortage of electric power.
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
    Lowell_Greenberg and Ken7 like this.
  12. RickSE

    RickSE Active Member

  13. Ken7

    Ken7 Active Member

    I understand what you’re saying, but there are many other ways he could have phrased this without looking foolish (to those with any knowledge of what’s going on in the auto industry), lying or turning off stockholders.
  14. Ken7

    Ken7 Active Member

    You ‘selectively’ focus on a BEV that may get 85-150 for an ‘implied’ price, as your example shows, of $40,000-80,000. That’s more than a bit misleading when you can get a Tesla Model 3 that will get 250 to 322 miles of range depending on which Model 3 you choose. Prices will range from $39,000-49,000 depending on range and performance and those prices don’t even reflect rebates. There are many states offering rebates and I believe there’s also $3,875 remaining on federal rebates, but I’m not 100%. So likely the prices I quoted will be significantly less. So we’re not talking about Model S pricing.
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
  15. css28

    css28 Active Member

    I decided to compare the US market with the UK for EV's.
    They pay roughly 2 1/2 times what we pay for petrol. They get tax relief on ownership of EV's and can qualify for free charging station installation at their residences.
    When I bought my 2017 LEAF this past summer, it was the only used LEAF on the market in Michigan.
    Per, there are 92 used LEAFs within 50 miles of Salisbury.

    The economics are obviously more favorable for EV ownership there, despite the fact that most of the housing stock lacks a garage or even a parking space adjacent to the residence.
  16. ClarityBill

    ClarityBill Active Member

    UK geometry also favors shorter-range vehicles (and mass transit):

    Intercity distances are much shorter than US.

    It is not possible to take a 700 mile trip across country.
  17. craze1cars

    craze1cars Well-Known Member

    And Honda has less than 1% if the European car market. Again a smart CEO largely ignores this market. Whereas VW is #1 in Europe. So if Europe is where the EV market is at, then obviously VW has considerably more incentive to produce and sell electric cars than Honda does in today’s world. So the smart VW leaders should invest more in the tech. Honda can smartly wait.
    Agzand likes this.
  18. Landshark

    Landshark Active Member

    To be clear, I’m not a fan of the BEV at any price. There’s nothing appealing about a vehicle that forces an owner to land in a gem of a town like Barstow for an hour to recharge. I know, a Supercharger will charge to 80% in 30 minutes, that’s still too long. And, are you really going to push that stated range to 250?

    Like most Americans, I don’t need a car with 200-300 miles of EV range. It’s a waste of battery capacity. I’d rather see that capacity go into 5 PHEV Clarities than 1 Tesla.
    Geor99 and jdonalds like this.
  19. css28

    css28 Active Member

    @Landshark I agree with you in this case. BEV people decry the reduced efficiency of carrying around an unneeeded engine and transaxle but instead carry around 100+ miles of battery that they seldom need.

    Better look out for some enraged Barstowans going forward though :)
    Walt R likes this.
  20. Landshark

    Landshark Active Member

    It’s interesting that VW says they want to produce 50 million electric vehicles in the next few years and then state that production capacity will be 180,000 next year and 1 million by 2025. Seems they’ll be shy by at least 45 million over the next 5 years.

    They don’t have the greatest record for following emissions regulations and apparently math is not their forte.
    David Towle likes this.

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