2M + Cybertruck reserves most high spec FSD- avg 58K price (62B)

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by 101101, Apr 7, 2021.

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  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member



    2 plus million Cybertruck reservations most with full self-driving and most over 60k with average price of 58k its 62 billion in reservations and 100 million down. Model 3 only had 500k reservations. Of course Model 3 had a higher down but here Tesla has proven it can deliver. Cybertruck reminds me of Starship in particular for its economy.

    Look at Starship. It was just found that Spacex is making its own tanks from rocket parts. Which turns out to mean is able to produce a Starship test candidate for about 5 million USD per unit with that set to drop down to about 3 million as the Raptor engines drop from 1 million per unit to 250K per unit. Starship is set to take 1000 people and their luggage to any place on the planet in about 1 hour or about 20x faster than a 747 any place on Earth and for about the same price- so instead of 20hrs or more in flights you go direct no stop overs in 1 hr- seems like it could be less. The price is set to be about the same price as a 747 ticket too. Claim was 2 million cost per flight with about 900k in fuel costs. I was trying to figure out the fuel costs and those seem high. Its about 450K to fuel a 747. Starship will have to go full green. I tried to calculate out what that might mean and I came up with 300k for fuel even with having to convert to synthesize the the methox portion at 48% efficiency if they do all power production on site they can surely hit the CA utility production battery backed solar rate of 1 cent a kwh and if so that should cut the cost of fuel by 2/3rds or about 66% of the fuel cost of the 747 flight. Makes a flight about 1.3 million or about the price of a 747 flight per passenger. But I can see if they buy the LOX with NG power prices baked in they are getting hit prior to going green and doing their own on site power they would still be over paying by about 3x for the methane if they are getting a US coops bulk rate for LNG at 6kwh in 2016 baked in with the commercial purchase- same assumption for cost multiplier for externally provided LOX so cut by 1/6th and save on liquid transports etc.

    System itself is so cheap. Imagine 2 million for the starship body and raw components except for the engines and 3 million for the booster body and raw components except for the engine (but remember Musk envision a single stage system for Earth to Earth passenger and cargo transport- might have 6 less engines,) will that would be 5 million for the system and maybe 9 million for the engines. This thing would be 14 million dollars. Now double that for safety systems and human accommodation. Its 1/10th the cost of a 747 and cheaper than a Dreamliner by a similar factor. It won't be needing a runway so more compact landings and finally makes good use of oil platforms. And it gets people used to the idea of space flight. And it can cross the Earth while only having to cope with about 200 miles of atmosphere and for about 16 minutes
     
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