Who are the Tesla SHORTS

[bwilson4web]

Apparently a list of fund managers:

• David Einhorn
  • Ross Gerber -> "Opposite Einhorn Fund"
• Jumpier Chanos
• Whitney Tilson
• Mark B. Spiegel
• Andrew Left - reported to have left his previous SHORT position
• (Anton Wahlman) - missing from this list
• (Bob Lutz) - missing from this list

I have long suspected there is a list of SHORTs. Of course this does not include their media such as SeekingAlpha and CNBC.

Bob Wilson

 

[bwilson4web]

Well this was a pleasant surprise:
https://www.thestreet.com/investing...rs-15025846?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

By Anton Wahlman

No automaker has managed to make money manufacturing and selling electric cars yet. In fact, electric-car giant Tesla (TSLA - Get Report) has been the prime example of what happens when you try to sell a product that's so expensive to manufacture that you have to price it at below-cost to post unit growth.

Tesla sold 245,000 cars in 2018 and is on track to sell almost 360,000 in 2019, but has posted losses every single year since its inception. For example, the company lost $1 billion in 2018, and 2019 doesn't look like it will break this trend. After all, Tesla managed to lose $702 million in 2019's first quarter alone.
. . . ​

This guy is persistent. Cleverly he has ignored 2018 Q3-Q4 and 2019 Q2 is soon upon us. Now he has expanded beyond SeekingAlpha. The rope is running out.

Bob Wilson

 

[David Green]

Well this was a pleasant surprise:
https://www.thestreet.com/investing...rs-15025846?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

By Anton Wahlman

No automaker has managed to make money manufacturing and selling electric cars yet. In fact, electric-car giant Tesla (TSLA - Get Report) has been the prime example of what happens when you try to sell a product that's so expensive to manufacture that you have to price it at below-cost to post unit growth.

Tesla sold 245,000 cars in 2018 and is on track to sell almost 360,000 in 2019, but has posted losses every single year since its inception. For example, the company lost $1 billion in 2018, and 2019 doesn't look like it will break this trend. After all, Tesla managed to lose $702 million in 2019's first quarter alone.
. . . ​

This guy is persistent. Cleverly he has ignored 2018 Q3-Q4 and 2019 Q2 is soon upon us. Now he has expanded beyond SeekingAlpha. The rope is running out.

Bob Wilson

Wow, Bob... Record sales in Q2, and still posted a 400M loss to shareholders... Cap Ex for 2019 guided lower....

 

[David Green]

Apparently a list of fund managers:

• David Einhorn
  • Ross Gerber -> "Opposite Einhorn Fund"
• Jumpier Chanos
• Whitney Tilson
• Mark B. Spiegel
• Andrew Left - reported to have left his previous SHORT position
• (Anton Wahlman) - missing from this list
• (Bob Lutz) - missing from this list

I have long suspected there is a list of SHORTs. Of course this does not include their media such as SeekingAlpha and CNBC.

Bob Wilson

Can you chew over these numbers from Tesla's top sales qtr's, and tell me what has gone so wrong in 6 months? I put my thoughts in Bold

Q4 2018 Deliveries 91,000
Auto Rev $6.323B Tesla in Q4 2018 averaged nearly $70 K per car sold, which lead to a tiny profit
Total Rev $7.226B
$139MM GAAP Profit

Q2 2019 Deliveries 95,356
Auto Rev $5.376B Tesla in Q2 2019 averaged $ 56K per car sold
Total Rev $6.350B
($408MM) GAAP Loss

Its pretty clear to me Tesla cannot make net profit unless they can get the revenue per vehicle above $65K, and it looks like they severely trimmed CAP EX for the year, meaning less growth in service centers, and Superchargers. I guess this is why all the Execs have been leaving, the ship is indeed sinking, can you show me calculations of known facts that shore this up? Not future promises, but provable facts?

 

[bwilson4web]

Can you chew over these numbers from Tesla's top sales qtr's, and tell me what has gone so wrong in 6 months? I put my thoughts in Bold

Q4 2018 Deliveries 91,000
Auto Rev $6.323B Tesla in Q4 2018 averaged nearly $70 K per car sold, which lead to a tiny profit
Total Rev $7.226B
$139MM GAAP Profit

Q2 2019 Deliveries 95,356
Auto Rev $5.376B Tesla in Q2 2019 averaged $ 56K per car sold
Total Rev $6.350B
($408MM) GAAP Loss

Its pretty clear to me Tesla cannot make net profit unless they can get the revenue per vehicle above $65K, and it looks like they severely trimmed CAP EX for the year, meaning less growth in service centers, and Superchargers. I guess this is why all the Execs have been leaving, the ship is indeed sinking, can you show me calculations of known facts that shore this up? Not future promises, but provable facts?

Nice static analysis. Of course we have different accounting methods:

    Q2 - 19     Q1 - 19     Q2 - 18    Q1+Q2 (19)    Q1+Q2 (18)
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of period
$ 5,448,293 $ 2,682,798 $ 2,783,238   $ 5,448,293   $ 2,783,238
Cash Flows from Operating Activities Net loss
$  (389,262)$ (667,645) $  (742,706 )$ (1,056,907) $ (1,527,333)[/FONT]

So counting down to Tesla bankruptcy:

    Q2 - 19     Q1 - 19     Q2 - 18    Q1+Q2 (19)    Q1+Q2 (18)
    ~14.0 Qs    ~4.0 Qs     ~3.7 Qs    ~5.2 Qs       ~1.8 Qs

To quote Mark Twain, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” Tesla is not going out of business anytime soon. In fact it looks to be +3 times stronger Q2 over Q1 and +2 times stronger Q1+Q2 2019 over Q1+Q2 2018.

We also know the product mix is changing over time from Model S/X, ~$100k/unit, to Model 3, ~$50k/unit. Though some may consider the upper trim, EVs like the I-Pace and E-Tron, to be decimating the Model S/X sales, neither Audi nor Jaguar has a competitive product to the Model 3 which is where Tesla production expanded.

So Tesla remains a long term investment. I've not sold any at a loss, yet, and see no reason to sell now.

Bob Wilson

 

[David Green]

Nice static analysis. Of course we have different accounting methods:

    Q2 - 19     Q1 - 19     Q2 - 18    Q1+Q2 (19)    Q1+Q2 (18)
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of period
$ 5,448,293 $ 2,682,798 $ 2,783,238   $ 5,448,293   $ 2,783,238
Cash Flows from Operating Activities Net loss
$  (389,262)$ (667,645) $  (742,706 )$ (1,056,907) $ (1,527,333)[/FONT]

So counting down to Tesla bankruptcy:

    Q2 - 19     Q1 - 19     Q2 - 18    Q1+Q2 (19)    Q1+Q2 (18)
    ~14.0 Qs    ~4.0 Qs     ~3.7 Qs    ~5.2 Qs       ~1.8 Qs

To quote Mark Twain, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” Tesla is not going out of business anytime soon. In fact it looks to be +3 times stronger Q2 over Q1 and +2 times stronger Q1+Q2 2019 over Q1+Q2 2018.

We also know the product mix is changing over time from Model S/X, ~$100k/unit, to Model 3, ~$50k/unit. Though some may consider the upper trim, EVs like the I-Pace and E-Tron, to be decimating the Model S/X sales, neither Audi nor Jaguar has a competitive product to the Model 3 which is where Tesla production expanded.

So Tesla remains a long term investment. I've not sold any at a loss, yet, and see no reason to sell now.

Bob Wilson

My point was that Tesla has shown they cannot turn a profit on cars at $56K, they need higher transaction prices, and the structural cost has increased, more interest payments and debt than 1 year ago. Also shareholders have been diluted, with increased executive compensation, and stock sales, and now you lost the CTO, (Co Founder that was there before Elon), arguably the 2nd in command at the company.

Losing the talent, called brain drain is a serious problem for Tesla. You are right, nobody really has a model 3 competitor, but nobody else added 12B in debt trying, and loses money every year selling them. You are now 2 full years into the Model 3 production run, and the market is starting to show some signs of saturation... Model 3 sales way down in July in the USA, and Europe. You will see when inside EV's reports next week.

Good Luck with that long term investment, TSLA is a bet on whether Musk and Co can crack full self driving first, if not, you lose... If Yes, they live to play another day. Tomorrow is going to be rough riding in the TSLA world my friend, keep your head up... Raising $2.4B was a lifeline for them, let's see how long they can make it last?

On the future Model Y enters a crowded market, and the pickup... What pickup? Ford, GM and Rivian are already testing prototypes (Ford's can tow 1.25 million lbs) , I would say they are well out in front on trucks.