The impact of the Tesla Cybertruck on Truck space and ICE in general

[101101]

Looks like Telsa has now hit the profit center of ICE vehicles and ICE legacy makers in the US. The impact is immediate and it is leading immediately to lost or at best delayed sales that switch to less profitable electric vehicles sales for ICE makers out of what will remain of their loyalists customers. This happens immediately before presumably before Tesla has really started to commit its CAPEX for the Cybertruck.

The Cybertruck takes the spot the Hummer used to occupy as a kind of category definer. Both vehicles are a bit frog like- all Porsches a bit frog like as well but the Cybertruck is green with a Mars ready power-train with apparent military utility-simplicity-toughness. Cybertruck now defines the segment mind share but it is also the new value definition and it takes that defining price performance to a place where ICE can't follow.

It also raises the bar on electric. Rivian will see its share reduced to those who want conventional styling so bad they are willing to pay a lot more for a much smaller less capable lower performance vehicle, it turns their product offerings into half measures even in the sub segment they claim to be targeting. For Ford and GM and FCA it means what ever they offer has to be good enough to at least appeal to loyalist but really it also has to be be a much better value proposition than anything their ICE technology is capable of offering under any remotely foreseeable outcome. GM apparently knows this claiming it will match the Cybertrucks release quarter the moment quarter was announced (fall 2020) The Cybertruck is the first vehicle that moves the sweet spot for electric price performance well below the cost of where ICE can follow even in theory and it does that starting today and it does it in the heart of their formerly tariff protected profit center.

Wish they would add PV cells to that roll up Toneau bed covering system- good even on Mars.

The Cybertruck hits so many unconscious cues, it mixes f117 with Halo with Big Track. Bubbas are going to love this thing. That exterior is forever, no paint to peal or chip, nothing to scratch etc. This destroys the Ford Raptor in every way for about half the costs. The 39K Cybertruck is more capable than a Raptor outfitted to 90K. The fully outfitted Cybertruck can drag a Raptor up a hill backwards in a tug o war and out accelerate a 2020 Porsche 911 0-60 and beat the Porsche by half a second in the 1/4 mile. The Cybertruck is 2x as quick as the Raptor 0-60 and 3 seconds quicker in the quarter mile with much more interior room and much more storage capacity and much greater carrying and towing capacity for zero emissions and surely million mile power trains that have almost zero maintenance and fuss and are radically more reliable at least 2x more economical- maybe closer to 7x. Cybertruck will be much cheaper to power and insurance should be much lower as well- Tesla's insurance costs will only drop because it doesn't use insurance to hide socializing endless fossil fuel losses (passing on costs to end users) and self insuring there is no waste on non contributing middle man profits- increasingly the case for Tesla's insurance. The Tesla service experience is actually superior because Tesla comes to you. The Cybertruck will clearly have much better water fording ability (no snorkel needed) and and it will be better in the snow (don't even need a block heater) look at where these vehicles are most popular (for a long time now- coldest regions and fud about cold has been resolved) and better handling- Musk says its on rails you can see the camber tilting in turns and it has full load leveling and height adjustment the Raptor doesn't match- flat armored bottom too. Also comes with own power outlets 120 and 240 for tools and compressor. And its way further ahead with self driving tech. Also Tesla doesn't do all the dumb options like charging people $2500 for blue seat accents. And haul distance was resolved with the Tesla Semi- the tech is known for haul.

Just look at storage- bigger bed by 1ft, no wheel well intrusion, storage under the bed, storage in frunk, storage in bed sales, comes with automatic toneu, built bed extender and ramping tech, bed is already pre-hardened beyond anything Ford is offering, no maintenance exterior, 120 and 240v outlets and compressor. Not sure if it will self inflate tires or adjust for terrain.

Maybe Tesla will just let Ford and GM copy but if so I think this shows up in Tesla's financial statements as hard positive cash increases year after year. In the case of GM I don't think is idiot execs and extractive/parasitic shareholders should be allowed to come along for the ride (especially after siding with the idiot admin) without having powered by TESLA draped over everything.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

It's waaaaaaaaaay too early to judge the effect of the Cybertruck on the market. Judging from the NBC Nightly News report tonite -- and NBC News (altho definitely not CNBC!) is generally supportive of Tesla -- we're at the "laugh at it" stage.

Hopefully this will be a case of that famous saying (falsely) attributed to Mahatma Gandhi: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

There's a rumor posted to InsideEVs News that there have already been 200,000 reservations for the Cybertruck. If that's true, then there are an awful lot of people out there who aren't laughing at all!

But we really don't know enough about the Cybertruck and its potential, yet, to have an informed opinion. One rather startling specification: The bed of the Cybertruck has 100 cubic feet of storage, which is about three times the normal cargo space of a short bed pickup! What will people be able to do with such an enormous storage space? Well, for one thing, this will have enough room for a truly spacious camper shell! Those jonesing for a Rivian R1T to take camping... may be reconsidering that plan in the very near future!

As a former pickup driver, I'm not happy about it having sides which are too high to reach into the bed except at the rear, but this truck clearly has other advantages to make up for that deficiency. What other hidden advantages does the Cybertruck offer? (For example: Is there a frunk?) I expect Tesla will let that info leak out rather slowly, to keep interest up.

Rushing to judgement, as so many have already done with Tesla's newest vehicle, will be shown to be a rather large mistake on the part of a rather large number of people.

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[interestedinEV]

Rushing to judgement, as so many have already done with Tesla's newest vehicle, will be shown to be a rather large mistake on the part of a rather large number of people.

Yes and here are my thoughts on this.

No one on this BB will ever accuse me of being a Tesla basher, I have always acknowledged the innovative spirit and the far reaching breakthrough achievements of both Elon and Tesla. On the other hand I have not subscribed to the blind adulation of Elon or Tesla. Many promises and statements have been made that were either not achieved, or not achieved in time promised or clearly not achievable i.e. misleading or not factual. And also a lot of hype was generated that could not sustained. So let us look at it objectively

1. A price starting at $39,000 with stainless steel body, shatter proof glass, a range of 250 miles, futuristic design etc. Seems aggressive, and might be based on some assumptions of breakthrough in battery technology. Call me skeptic that the price will not change. Or if it remains, it will be limited.
   
2. The rumor of 200,000 reservations. Model 3 had a reported ~ 500,000 reservations @ $500 for it. When volume production started, most of the reservations vanished and within a few months, people could buy it without reservation. Remember here it is only $100 (and I am one of those who reserved but I may remove it if I find something else I like). I am sure many others are like me. Even if the numbers are correct, is about $20 million that Elon has as an interest free loan, a far cry from the ~ $250 million he got from the Model 3. I would think that someone in Tesla crunched the numbers and decided asking for $500 again may not result in many reservations. They would have been foolish to turn away even $50 million if they felt they could have got it. They are being a little more realistic about the demand or the willingness of actual buyers to buy into the hype.
   
3. Late 2021 is the targeted date. Now Tesla has so many things on their plate. Getting Model Y may be a more urgent priority, they have factory in China that needs to come up, a possible factory in Germany for which they are scouting for places, the possible roadster, an upgrade to the aging Tesla S (the Plaid). Then there is the loss making Solar City division which needs attention. And the history of making timeline commitments that keep getting pushed off. Does Tesla have the management capabilities to handle all of these differing needs and do they have the funding to do so? My guess and this is my guess is "No they don't", that some thing has to give and it could be the time line of the Cybertruck.
4. If a Cybertruck was not enough, we have the teaser of the Cyberquad. Well that is a different type of vehicle, needs money and attention to develop and sell and the effort cannot be trivial. Why muddy the waters with another product which may not be priority (there are no details on this)? Is this an example of hype that really is not helpful in the long run?
   
5. Writing of competition prematurely. It is true that all the competition today have been paper tigers in the US. The LEAF for example is selling well outside the US (but is possibly on the decline). VW is investing in a big way, The dormant Toyota machine seems to be waking up to the demand for BEVs and if Toyota moves, they will move very fast. I have been saying this for some time, that things are going to change and the dominance of Tesla will be be put to test. It is not that Tesla will falter and fail, things will get more challenging and management attention may be diverted. Rivian has deep pocketed backers (Amazon, Cox Automotive, Ford) and they have to make an impact, they cannot rely on just the bulk orders from Amazon. Ford is not going to allow their F-150 franchise to be lost that easily. (That said, Ford is not going the right way on the Mach-E reservations, they want you to give the money for the reservation without any commitments".) So Tesla has to plan that others will not go down easily and be prepared for that.

I am being pragmatic that while Cybertruck may be successful, it is not going to be a cakewalk for Tesla. Many things can happen between now and late 2021 that will throw all of the promises out of course. So I am in the wait and see mode.

 

[Re-Volted]

I have to agree with much of what you said, and am currently taking a supportive but "time will tell" attitude. The specs and price are too awesome to ignore, so I also put in a reservation, # RN112794167. What do you think, over 94,000 back? Am currently waiting on delivery of a used Model S, yay!, which will have it's warranty winding down as truck production starts, so we'll see how that works out.


Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs

 

[101101]

To me the price of the base model and the base feature list shows the days of the big 3 being protected by the Chicken Tax on imported trucks and us subsidizing these gross polluters with work truck deductions/credits (and the EPA scam where bigger vehicles weren't penalized by weight but had their emissions schedules relaxed which undermined crimping emissions because the Big 3 shifted to heavy to sell more fossil fuels and pushed all their focus over into this tax and tariffed shelter- that was a scam) all that is over as are these margins which are then passed on to parasite big 3 investors as dividends and stock buy backs are over. This is a pin to that balloon. This is Musk and Tesla setting the agenda being proactive and forcing the big 3 to respond with properly margin-ed vehicles no more rip offs.

I think the design will play as more Madmax punk than Bladerunner but the themes behind both involve overthrow of corrupt power. So no more days of them being able to offer a base truck for 50K and then doubling the price with another 50K of options that should have been standard. I have the strong sense that the Cybertruck will be better handling on and off road and more capable in both with better ride.

If you look you can see a slide in the presentation that shows the frunk open from a side top down angle so you can see its dimensions and what will fit. In that same slide it shows the side sails open to partly address the reach over the side of the bed issue- so it has some built in panel truck attributes to help with that issue a bit. I'd like to see them add some PV cells into the slats of that automatic bed cover Toneau roll. I'd also like to see renders of the vehicle in vinyl wrap both mat and glass matching black. This is the new Hummer, this is bold and attention grabbing. This pissing on the conservative past. This allows rebellious sorts of which there are more than a few right now to express with an outrageous statement.

They should have parked an F150 next to the prototype, a Raptor- great if they could have found a way to give rides in that for immediate comparison right after (Ford might not have been happy about that) because its pathetic by comparison. Tesla is selling the disjunct. Polarizing is great! Some of the critics are people who have the same mentality as people who said the iphone would never sell. Right now there are people who don't see the Motorola Razor as a step backwards, just like Porsche trying to put a transmission back in an EV- as silly as adding a transmission to a modern locomotive. Tesla can sell this vehicle with almost no margin to eliminate the fossil fuel blubber that has been screwing over our society and the world. Think idiotic the Trump admin's statement that the US can't afford to go green. We cannot afford not to subject these parasites to both justice and their bill of damage going back decades with interest and lost opportunity costs, we can't afford any more fossil induced austerity. This is profiting from their destruction.

This event was like the birth of Tesla bigger than the Model 3 launch or the Roadster in space. Smashing the windows and hitting both will be history and epic history. Its like breaking a campaign bottle on ship you're launching, and like the hull hardening tests that ensue. They showed a picture of the F117 as an inspiration. That is accurate.