ROBOTAXIS - Thoughts?

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Hey All - What do you all think about the announcement this week of RoboTAXIS being allowed to charge of rides in california? Some research actually shows that robotaxis are likely to increase congestion in our lifetime rather than decrease it which i found interesting ...

anyways, I share my opinion here if interested:

Genuinely interested in what people think though.. I remember when this was just in movies. .
 
gooki said:
The ride sharing aspect of robotaxis will reduce congestion.
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Yes I'd agree with that in the long term, but I doubt it in our lifetime completely, reason is that unless the whole road is 100% autonomous (or close to it) and therefore machines talking to each other, it won't be efficient. You'll get very bad drivers driving irrationally on the same roads as these therefore likely to cause congestion.
 
marshall said:
I thought Uber and Lift had increased congestion due to folks using them over mass transit.
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Yes you’re right, problem is you can’t have all three operating at max - public transport, ride hailing + private cars. So short term makes sense that congestion actually increased due to the number of empty ubers going around. However the cheaper ride hailing becomes, the less private cars will see and therefore less congestion
 
marshall said:
I thought Uber and Lift had increased congestion due to folks using them over mass transit.
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The majority or Uber/Lyft rides are not shared rides hence increased congestion. Autonomous TAAS should be able to cut congestion in half.
 
Powered said:
Yes I'd agree with that in the long term, but I doubt it in our lifetime completely, reason is that unless the whole road is 100% autonomous (or close to it) and therefore machines talking to each other, it won't be efficient. You'll get very bad drivers driving irrationally on the same roads as these therefore likely to cause congestion.
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If executed well electric autonomous transportation as a service will under cut private car ownership within half a decade.

And in ride sharing, say in average, three passengers per vehicle and you'll cut congestion significantly.

The only thing that I can see increasing congestion over the medium term is if TAAS becomes so cheap people travel more.
 
Because taking three passengers at once is less efficient than each passenger taking their own car?
 
Powered said:
However the cheaper ride hailing becomes, the less private cars will see and therefore less congestion
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gooki said:
Because taking three passengers at once is less efficient than each passenger taking their own car?
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I guess I don's see folks doubling or tripling up in a robo taxi for the most part unless they are all in one family.

When I look at the morning or evening commute, I see mostly single drivers and full commuter buses. As such, I don't see robo taxis reducing congestion.

Robo taxis will be pretty much the same service as Lift or Uber without the driver, mostly short hops or to the airport.

Anyhow, I guess will have to agree to disagree.
 
The only things that will reduce congestion are:
1. Better and more mass transit.
2. More roads and bridges.
3. Mandate less cars through taxes, costs, regs, etc.
4. Population decrease, or at least a large exodus from large metro areas.
5. Economic collapse, ie severe recession, depression.

The 1st two are unlikely to happen, given the current and likely future political environment. The last three are far more likely, esp #3. Another more dangerous epidemic could cause #4, too. And with what is happening in the US and around the world with printing money, taxes, irresponsible govts spending,... a day of reckoning could trigger #5, the likes of which we have never seen in a century or more.

Autonomous Driving is still a pipe dream, which would require 100% implementation to have an effect. Will be a long, long time before that happens. Esp given simpler, quicker and more effective solutions, or even the more dire ones that will happen first.
 
Waymo already does this. I received this email a year back. This is in a geo-fenced area in Phoenix metro. I have personally not ridden in it, but Waymo has made no bones about doing this.


mail


mail

Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way

Over the years and with your support, we’ve been testing and refining our fully self-driving technology – including cars without a trained driver up front.

We’re excited to share that soon you may experience one of these driverless rides!


Here’s what you can expect:
  • If you get matched with a fully driverless car, you’ll see a notification in your Waymo app that confirms the car won’t have a trained driver up front.
  • You'll also see a "What to expect" button in your app, which you can tap to learn more about our driverless rides.
  • You can enjoy having the car all to yourself.
  • As always, if you need assistance during any part of your trip, you can contact a rider support agent through the car's help button or in your app.

Rest assured, Waymo will still be taking care of you; this is just the next step as we travel down the road toward a fully self-driving future. Thank you for joining us on this journey! If you have any questions, you can contact support.
 
Doing it in a controlled Geo fenced area is not the same as being able to do it everywhere that you can drive a car today. But so what, will not do anything to reduce congestion.
 
marshall said:
I guess I don's see folks doubling or tripling up in a robo taxi for the most part unless they are all in one family.
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Why not? We do it for planes, busses and trains. It'll become common place for robo taxis as well.

1. It'll be 50% cheaper to ride shared rather than exclusive.

2. The route and schedule is optimized by software taking away the greatest barrier to car pooling today (organisation).

3. Huge incentive for the fleet operator to make it work as it results in more income for less capital and less miles.
 
Umm, this is a big fat NOPE, my computer and phone crashes often enough that I can't imagine what would happen if the cars computer crashed while driving. Not to mention once the government or someone else hacks it to not let you out and drives you into the river. So on and so forth. Can you tell I am not a fan of self driving cars?
 
gooki said:
Why not? We do it for planes, busses and trains. It'll become common place for robo taxis as well.
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It's all about cost and convenience. If the cost isn't low enough or the convenience high enough, folks are not going to accept it.

Flying on an airplane for example, the cost is much lower and faster compared to driving over long distances. So folks will accept multiple passengers.

I see robo taxis as a human replacement for the types of conveyances that Lift or Uber is doing now. Now if it becomes cheap and convenient, I see more single passenger trips and a reduction in vehicles owned, but I don't see multiple people in the vehicle unless they are family members.
 
This concept is massively overrated. It will not reduce the amount of congestion, it will increase it. If these robotaxis are supposed to be super cheap to drive, it will incentivize more people to take additional trips. This is easily observable in driver response to gas prices. As gas prices decrease, more miles are driven. More trips means more congestion

Also, hardly anyone actually carpools. That is fairly uncommon. Nobody actually wants to get in the car with random strangers and carpooling may require multiple unnecessary stops, so virtually all trips will be solo. The idea that suddenly everyone would be ok with ride sharing is just wishful thinking. If this doesn't already happen with Uber/Lyft, then it won't happen with robotaxis.

Even if the total number of potential human trips remains the same, the number of car trips will increase. Think about it. Instead of having cars go from one destination to the other then parking, you potentially have the same car just dropping someone off then driving off to make another trip. This means more cars on the road at all times.

I believe that all the assertions made by the "robotaxis will fix everything" crowd are wishful thinking based on faulty observations.
 
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R P said:
The only things that will reduce congestion are:
1. Better and more mass transit.
2. More roads and bridges.
3. Mandate less cars through taxes, costs, regs, etc.
4. Population decrease, or at least a large exodus from large metro areas.
5. Economic collapse, ie severe recession, depression.

The 1st two are unlikely to happen, given the current and likely future political environment. The last three are far more likely, esp #3. Another more dangerous epidemic could cause #4, too. And with what is happening in the US and around the world with printing money, taxes, irresponsible govts spending,... a day of reckoning could trigger #5, the likes of which we have never seen in a century or more.

Autonomous Driving is still a pipe dream, which would require 100% implementation to have an effect. Will be a long, long time before that happens. Esp given simpler, quicker and more effective solutions, or even the more dire ones that will happen first.
Click to expand...

It's not politics that make the first two unlikely, it's the fact that these projects are insanely expensive. Sure more and better mass transit would be nice, but that's financially infeasible for many locations.
 
SouthernDude said:
It's not politics that make the first two unlikely, it's the fact that these projects are insanely expensive. Sure more and better mass transit would be nice, but that's financially infeasible for many locations.
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Yes, but it is politics that have made them expensive (regulations, approval timelines and bureaucracy). If you go back a bit in history, the 60s, roads and infrastructure were built for a fraction of today's cost (incl inflation) and in record times. Why, we because we weren't burdened by continuous legislation that added costs and lengthened timelines. Now, a single bridge or overpass takes forever to get approved and built.
 
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