Range under load may be one of the Cybertruck's best feature

[101101]

Tesla said 120/240v but didn't give us watts. We know know the Cybertruck will ford but it didn't mention that at all. Will we as 12 Wing Productions asked get a version we can hose out. How sealed will the body be? What about water evacuation? Is the bed sealed, does it have a drain plug, does the frunk have a drain plug?

It also didn't tell us tow range under load. That is a complicated multi-dimensional figure but it also didn't give us expected impact on range under load or even a range on that dimension. It told us something about economy as it did with the Tesla Semi, some figure like 2x as efficient per mile. But do we really think the efficiency would drop that low? Any chance its still less energy than a Toyota Prius when its under load?

But I think we can see based on what we know about the Tesla Semi and its range under full load and the stresses and estimated weights and tow capacity and the charger capacity, we can see how it will turn out for the Cybertruck based on what we know about it and shared components and similarities. Starting to think with the top model under full load it may be 45 minute charge every 400 mile or so under full load. It won't be the 1/2 reduction some people try to state based on electrics that weren't meant to tow or even the 1/2 that happens to ICE. And lets remember electric hauls and has hauled for decades the heaviest stuff like in locomotives for decades.

I don't think Tesla gave a range on this figure just as it didn't give a figure on power socket output because those two figures would be information that would allow the competition to rest on its laurels or think they can slow down or give them bargaining power or leverage they shouldn't have. Still thinking it is easy to see if you reason backwards from the components shared and related between the Tesla Semi and Cybertruck the vehicle's the range under load will be solid to awesome.

But the ICE shills are starting to coalesce around this because the already terrible ICE economics are made stupendously bad when you add any load to a ICE pick up- start hitting 10 mpg. Think about how laughable that is, big 3 pick-ups when put under any load drop down in fuel economy to something like Class 8 loaded tow haul fuel economy. Think we might be looking at the equivalent of the Diesel Gate scam here but not going to happen on a Tesla electric truck, quite the opposite. And totally funny too if the big 3 try to bounce back from that scam- suddenly look 15 mgp under load- does them no good!!!

With the semi we're given one figure the range under load figure. We don't get the hyper-mile-ing figure or the unloaded figure. There is no part of any of the power train or battery or designs that isn't radically more efficient.

Also think the "+" in 250kwh+ suggests some chance the Cybertruck could use a Mega Charger which would could probably charge it to full capacity in 12 minutes.

 

[101101]

Let me try this again:

Top Cybertruck 400 mile tow range under full load destroys 2020 Ford Raptor

With Cybertruck you'll stop every 6hrs or 400 miles with 2x the load 17500 tow+ payload.With Raptor its every 4hrs or 288 miles with 1/2 the load (8150lbs tow + payload) and you get raped on fuel. Charge vs fuel time can range from nothing for Cybertruck to 1/2 what it takes for Raptor to 2x as long but convenience should be comparable or better.

If the Tesla Semi is any indication Tesla haul tech under load only loses about 20% range (620 miles unloaded vs 500 miles loaded) vice the ICE 50% loss (see below.) This implies Cybertruck would have 38% greater tow range than a 2020 Raptor, adjusted for Cybertruck's greater than 215% total haul capacity advantage that jumps to 300%. At best you will be getting out of a Raptor to gas it about 2hrs sooner and 113 or so miles earlier and it will hound you to fill it up at the start and end point of your trip where a cybertruck may not. And there are concrete, even likely scenarios where you may spend less time charging a Cybertruck than filling a Raptor. But the cost difference for the trip is utterly enormous just having a 2020 Raptor haul the equivalent of what a Cybertruck could over a 400 mile span 1x a month would make the payment on a new truck.

Tesla semi was announced with 500 loaded range to 620mile unloaded range for top version. It has a megacharger which is said to charge its battery to full in 30min (sometimes said to charge to 80% in 30min but for commercial trucking seems reserve is included for million mile battery and no degradation- Porche calculates this way with Taycan.) The mega charger is apparently 4x 250kwh inputs. The semi has 4 model 3 motors. The base version of the semi truck with 300 miles range presumably uses 4 x 75kwh model 3 battery packs. The top model is simply 7 model 3 battery packs. If there is an 8th pack its just a reserve capacity pack for optimal charging (80% is 100% for run) its a 1 kwh per mile average under full load vehicle. Total powertrain battery packs and motors is under 9k lbs.

A Model 3 75khw battery pack holds the equivalent of 2.52 gallons of fuel. So a top model Tesla Semi will go 500 miles pulling 80,000lbs on 15.57 gallons of fuel equivalent. Its a 5.35x savings on fuel. Thats about 32 miles to the gallon- fully loaded its the same economy as a 2019 4 cyl Honda Accord but its the plausibly the lower end of the expected efficiency increase from the electric power train over ICE class 8 under load with its 6mpg- some ICE Class 8 does better than 6mpg. Model 3 is real world 330 miles on 75kwh- 150 eMPG or about 7x average ICE car. It utterly destroys nonsensical obsolete hybrid ICE, which isn't even half as efficient for much less performance. A Tesla Semi under full load 80,000 towing gets 2x the fuel efficiency with zero emissions of a 2020 Ford Raptor empty with no load.

Cybertruck is made of Tesla Semi drive parts just driving a total at max 1/4 the weight, it will have about the same or lower cd and a much lower aero cross sectional area and much lower rolling resistance and only 2/5- 1/3 the battery but more than 3/4 the raw mechanical motor capacity but again less battery and presumably less in the way of wiring gauge to the motors etc. So we can plausibly expect the same kind of drop which is 20% or a drop 2.5x more efficient than the ICE drop- but fluffy ICE pickups are somehow much worse under load in a conspicious diesel gate kind of way then even diesel class 8s even though both just drop 50%. Raptor pulling less than half the total load of a Cybertruck drops in to the higher end of Class 8 diesel fuel economy where Cybertruck stays way above a Toyota Prius!

So, 400 miles for Cybertruck under full load between 48 minute full recharges or if mega charger is available (as the plus in 250kwh+) 12min full charges. But a Cyber on mega might use 3 of 4 connectors for 750kwh or 16 minutes to full charge. But let us remember that Cybertruck carries between payload and max tow or 215% of what the 2020 Ford Raptor does per haul. You might as well multiply the range per recharge for Cybertruck relative to Raptor by 2.15x or 892 miles per charge for Cybertruck because it will take Raptor 2 trips to do what Cybertruck does in one or in less than half the time.

The Raptor will get 8 miles to the gallon under load (18mpg hwy, 15 city 16 mpg combined) it has a 36 gallon tank. It will go 288 miles between 5 minute fill ups or 3min 36 sec to fill at 10 gallon per min and a bit over a min to get in out and pay. But could take double the fill rate or 7 min with delays. On a 892 mile trip you'll have to fill that Raptor 3x or min 21 min worth at minbut that's 13hrs so you might need a little more time than that for yourself. You'll need 109 gallons of fuel vs 5.93 gallons equivalent for cybertruck for equivalent load across the same distance in Raptor half haul terms. Cybertruck does a little over 83mpg unloaded which drops to 67.5 mpg loaded zero emissions, way better than a Prius!!! Cybertruck will save you $350 to $400 dollars on the trip in gas (see below.) With cybertruck having equivalent 1/3 the stops. If 892miles equivalent was your unload destination maybe the Cybertruck is recharging while you unload.

But lets just go raw real world where the Cybertruck will make you get out and recharge. You'll have to recharge under full load (2x Raptors max payload and towing) at 400 miles or the distance between LA and Roseville CA at the 6hrs mark (69 mph avg per google at this moment today.) You might have to take a piss then, you might want to eat. But you might be there for between 12 and 48 min on recharging. But you might already be at your destination possibly nixing the logistics of hook up.

The Raptor with a mere 1/2 half the total cargo would have forced a stop for gas 2hrs or 112 miles earlier at Merced at the 4hrs mark. You will be stopping more frequently in the Raptor and getting raped on gas and e.g. levelized energy in CA getting $21.34 cybertruck in gas vs $419 Raptor and getting raped on gas even in the best case.

To sum up under full load the

Raptor will only go 2/3 as far (288 vs 415 miles or 4hrs vs 6hrs) pulling less than 1/2 the load before it forces you to refuel. With a full load haul under 400 mile the Cybertruck may charge while you unload or stop over at the destination making it so you don't even need to make a stop- never the case with Raptor. Over longer hauls you may spend half the amount of time charging that a Raptor would fueling (access to full mega 12 min charge and adjusted for greater trip span and haul capacity) to 2x as long worst case with straight 250kwh chargers long distance. But you will make at least 1.38x more stops with Raptor and cargo adjusted up to 3x more stops over a long haul. You might have to stop with Raptor on hills. Of course there are still more gas stations and not all superchargers are easy to access with a load- help if a cable adaptor could be provided but dangerous. But this is raw charge we're looking at and Raptor will almost always have to fuel before you start out (Cybertruck will be topped when you get up) and Raptor may need a gas station at destination- Cybertruck mat not- but I didn't factor these in. The Raptor has half the load capacity Its something like 1/17 as energy efficient at hauling 1lbs down the road when fully loaded.

 

[101101]

Lets hit the cybertruck costs again to go full load 400 miles on a 200khw pack underfull load

What we should be paying in CA or less:

8 min Energy 1.1 cents kwh battery backed utility solar or $2.20 for the trip.

Home rates with battery backed solar may approach this or be even better depending on capacity.

What we do pay in CA:

Equivalent energy at the gas pump hyper subsidized rate of $2.5 (US hypersubsidy) - $3.85 (CA slight subsidy recovery) per gallon Is $14.82 - $22.83

Bad CA utility rates 18cents a kwh to 23 cents a kwh (pure rape and criminality being jacked up 23x to protect useless fossil fuel fraud and rent seeking) is $36-46

Supercharger CA: $52

Raptor to go 415 miles with half the load: $199.71, it takes 2+ trips for equivalent load or $399.42

So for full load 400 mile Cybertruck trip (2+ trips Raptor) savings of between $397.22 (gas $3.85) and $347.42 Save 6+ hrs on 1/2 trips

If you question this against the Roadster 2 remember its 620+ miles on 200kwh
and its optimized for speed with 2x the top and 1 second quicker 0-60.

Next step is for Tesla to apply recuperative braking to trailers and pv and aero to trailers. Non aero trailer would impact cybertruck range.

Tesla products are known now. We can see the building blocks on threshold market penetrating cost/performance and tech convergence components already. Adding 30X or super caps or solid state or pouches just make it better. Why was it necessary to have million mile Model 3 motors and batteries? Its not just for AEV taxis its so Tesla can offer the best warranties by far on the Semi


So for instance Tesla semi is 7x Model 3 battery packs at 1054lbs each and 4 model 3 motors at about 200lbs each. So its a roughly a 8200lbs (could be 9200lbs) power train but its not carrying 1200lbs of fuel or a fuel tank or heavy emissions equipment. And Class 8 ICE engine and trans run 5500lbs to 6000lbs. Tesla Semi would have maybe 1000lbs to 1500lbs to make up elsewhere. It doesn't have a driveshaft or heavy differentials.

 

[ajdelange]

It also didn't tell us tow range under load.

How could they tell us that? It depends mostly on the towed load and battery size and but little, in today's 90+ % efficiency regime on the rest of the vehicle. For example, if it takes 300 Wh/mi to tow a given trailer a mile and the CT's efficiency is 90% then we'll need 333 Wh from the battery to pull that trailer 1 mi. If the CT needs 485 Wh (number from ABRP) to go that same mile then total demand will be 333 + 485 = 818 Wh/mi and 200 kWh usable from the battery would give us a range of 200/.818 = 244 mi. If we improve the efficiency of the vehicle to 95% then we would only need 316 + 459 = 775 Wh from the battery and range goes up to 257 miles. That's nice, of course, but not a real attention grabber.

If we look at a trailer that requires 400 Wh/mi the numbers are 186 and 196 miles for, respectively, 90 and 95% efficiencies and assuming a 200 kWh battery.

The only sense in which range under load is really the CT's best feature is in that it has a big battery.

 

[ajdelange]

Next step is for Tesla to apply recuperative braking to trailers

Why? The energy recovered from an anvil you have just hauled up a mountain upon bringing back down again is the same whether it's in a trailer or in the bed of the truck.

Now what is an interesting thought is a trailer with supplemental battery in it. Or even wilder a trailer with its own battery AND some motors.