Model Y speculation

[jim]

Now that Elon and all of Tesla has decided to make the model Y on the model 3 platform it could come soon. Only problem is the model 3 is in such demand and back log that will be the deciding issue for the production date of the Y.
It will be very interesting to see what happens.

A pick up will also come on the model S and 3 platform some day. So many cars and trucks to build, so little time and material.

 

[Domenick]

...A pick up will also come on the model S and 3 platform some day. So many cars and trucks to build, so little time and material.

Tesla needs to build another vehicle assembly factory (or several) as well!

 

[WadeTyhon]

Tesla needs to build another vehicle assembly factory (or several) as well!

I know Musk has talked about additional gigafactories in the future. In addition to a production facility in China. If the Model 3 continues to be a hit once it makes it through the reservations, they will probably want to have a production facility in Europe also.

 

[jim]

I know Musk has talked about additional gigafactories in the future. In addition to a production facility in China. If the Model 3 continues to be a hit once it makes it through the reservations, they will probably want to have a production facility in Europe also.

Right they already have picked and awarded a factory in China for model 3 only.
The model 3 factories can make both the 3 and Y on the same lines with programming for each vehicle once they catch up on the model 3 sedan. They have to see how demand goes for each line 1st. Perhaps the model S and X lines will include a pick up before the 3 based pickup appears. Automated lines can make many different vehicles on the same line.
Tesla also may start 2 or 3 other GigaFactories around the World to relieve the very busy US factories. We will have to wait and see how Tesla continues it's very rapid growth.

 

[Cypress]

So at least 2 years to build a new factory, so we shouldn’t expect a Model Y or Pickup before 2020?


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[Pushmi-Pullyu]

...so we shouldn’t expect a Model Y or Pickup before 2020?

I don't think it would be realistic to expect volume production of the Model Y before 2020, and the Pickup will almost certainly come later.

We may see very limited production of the Model Y at the end of 2019. Hopefully Tesla won't make the same mistake it did with the Model 3, getting waaaaaaay out over its skis with an abortive start to production, months before Tesla was actually ready for high-volume production of the model.

Another reason why it's going to take two years, or perhaps a bit longer, is that it takes two years to build and fine-tune a new auto assembly plant. Tesla will certainly need at least one more assembly plant before it puts the Model Y into high-volume production.

Could Tesla develop the Model Y and the pickup simultaneously? While that's not impossible, it seems reasonably clear to me from Elon's various comments that Tesla is fairly far along on designing the Model Y, but just the other day Elon gave a statement suggesting that the Tesla Pickup exists only as some ideas in his mind.

As a reminder, Jay Cole has said that it generally takes 4-5 years to develop a brand new model of car. If the Tesla Pickup exists only as a bunch of ideas in Elon's head, that means we shouldn't expect it before 2022.

All just my opinion, of course.

 

[Cypress]

I don't think it would be realistic to expect volume production of the Model Y before 2020, and the Pickup will almost certainly come later.

We may see very limited production of the Model Y at the end of 2019. Hopefully Tesla won't make the same mistake it did with the Model 3, getting waaaaaaay out over its skis with an abortive start to production, months before Tesla was actually ready for high-volume production of the model.

Another reason why it's going to take two years, or perhaps a bit longer, is that it takes two years to build and fine-tune a new auto assembly plant. Tesla will certainly need at least one more assembly plant before it puts the Model Y into high-volume production.

Could Tesla develop the Model Y and the pickup simultaneously? While that's not impossible, it seems reasonably clear to me from Elon's various comments that Tesla is fairly far along on designing the Model Y, but just the other day Elon gave a statement suggesting that the Tesla Pickup exists only as some ideas in his mind.

As a reminder, Jay Cole has said that it generally takes 4-5 years to develop a brand new model of car. If the Tesla Pickup exists only as a bunch of ideas in Elon's head, that means we shouldn't expect it before 2022.

All just my opinion, of course.

It’s possible since it’s supposed to be based on the Model 3, that once the pent up demand for the 3 tapers off, they could configure the line to produce a mix of Y and 3. As CUVs are selling about 2:1 over sedans in the US.

I think they have to wait to get through the Model 3 backlog to even unveil the Y and make preorders available, otherwise they risk canabalizing 3 sales.


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[Pushmi-Pullyu]

It’s possible since it’s supposed to be based on the Model 3, that once the pent up demand for the 3 tapers off, they could configure the line to produce a mix of Y and 3.

Sure, but do you see pent-up demand for the Model 3 being fulfilled before 2020? I don't! Not with 455,000 pre-orders, and we can be reasonably sure that Tesla will add a lot of people to the waiting list as more and more people hear about Tesla and see the Model 3.

Of course, the Tesla bashers keep saying that the list will shrink as more people cancel their orders than put in new ones. But they said the same about the Model S and the Model X, so frankly those are just more clown comments to point and laugh at!