MINI to bring J01 all new electric hatch to the Oxford Plant for global export in 2027

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fishbert

fishbert

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https://www.motoringfile.com/2022/1...d-electric-mini-in-production-reorganization/

Main points:
  • For 2024 model launch, MINI will kill the current F56 Electric hatch eliminating the only electric product made in Oxford.
  • MINI is planning to bring a revised version of J01 all new electric hatch (initially built in China) to the Oxford Plant for global export in 2027. This could also point to the J02 Aceman following suit which would bring the entire MINI family into the UK or EU for easier export to the markets with large Chinese tariffs such as the US.
 
This sentence makes it sound like the SE will be absent from the US market from 2024 to 2027 (I added the underline):
This redistribution of production will not only help future proof the Oxford Plant but also allow BMW to avoid US tariffs on the cars paving the way for their introduction to the US market.
 
So, it sounds like that for 3 years (‘24, ‘25, & ‘26) US will only get overtaxed China SE’s, then in ‘27 we’re back to getting China SE’s made in Oxford, but w/o any tax credit. Does that sound correct?

In a related note, the EU is ramping up the pressure on the US concerning the disappearance of the tax credit. Is it possible it very well might be reinstated at some point?


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Jim In Tucson said:
In a related note, the EU is ramping up the pressure on the US concerning the disappearance of the tax credit. Is it possible it very well might be reinstated at some point?
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I'm skeptical that it will change, the protectionist incentives aren't unusual as far as countries go. Also there's no trade agreement between the UK and US, so it's really unlikely anything will change in MINI's favor (remember the UK is no longer part of the EU).
 
insightman said:
This sentence makes it sound like the SE will be absent from the US market from 2024 to 2027 (I added the underline):
This redistribution of production will not only help future proof the Oxford Plant but also allow BMW to avoid US tariffs on the cars paving the way for their introduction to the US market.
Click to expand...

I read somewhere that the MINIs produced in China are only for the Chinese market, though BMW was considering expanding production there to possibly export it to the US. Naturally, I can't find where I read that.
 
Jim In Tucson said:
So, it sounds like that for 3 years (‘24, ‘25, & ‘26) US will only get overtaxed China SE’s, then in ‘27 we’re back to getting China SE’s made in Oxford, but w/o any tax credit. Does that sound correct?
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It depends on how you interpret the word "introduction" I underlined in this post above.
 
endquote said:
Does a 22/23 SE get more valuable until an equivalent model is available in 27?
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With all due respect, I think anyone expecting their SE to do anything but depreciate at a typical rate is dreaming.

When you look at ICE vehicles, a brand's reputation for reliability only factors into things after a number of years, and even then only has a modest influence.

Conversely, despite doom-and-gloom projections about EVs, Teslas lose value at about the same rate as an ICE vehicle, and don't do all that much better than Nissan Leafs, despite being at opposite ends of the cost/luxury spectrum and the latter's reputation for poor battery life.

The only thing influencing this market calculation at present are supply-chain issues related to the pandemic. As those get sorted, I would expect regression towards the mean for the SE.

Never invest in depreciating assetts!
 
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CuriousGeorge said:
With all due respect, I think anyone expecting their SE to do anything but depreciate at a typical rate is dreaming.

When you look at ICE vehicles, a brand's for reliability only factors into things after a number of years, and even then only has a modest influence.

Conversely, despite doom-and-gloom projections about EVs, Teslas lose value at about the same rate as an ICE vehicle, and don't do all that much better than Nissan Leafs, despite being at opposite ends of the cost/luxury spectrum and the latter's reputation for poor battery life.

The only thing influencing this market calculation at present are supply-chain issues related to the pandemic. As those get sorted, I would expect regression towards the mean for the SE.

Never invest in depreciating assetts!
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If supply vs demand determines prices and if there are no new MINI Cooper SEs coming to the US in 2024, 2025, and 2026, wouldn't that increase the demand for used SEs?

I see on cars.com a Signature with a $2,700 price drop available for only $39,998! OK, that car's not gonna sell for $39,998, but there are no great bargains on used SEs there.

Its not as if there's a competing car that can fill in for the missing SE after 2023. Only used SEs will occupy the small, sporty, EV niche the SE created.
 
fishbert said:
Eh... the $4k tax credit will also cause the private party used market to tank, which means dealers don't have to offer as much to be competitive on a trade-in.
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Owners would have to work out the numbers. If you are in Arizona, the trade-in could save up to 9.8% in sales taxes, effectively reducing the new car purchase price. Michigan however does not have a sales tax rebate for trade-ins.

I don't think private sellers are going to ask for the purchaser's tax return to verify if they truly qualified for the $4k rebate (would have just gone to dealership).
 
As expected. Times perfectly when my lease will be up (if I ever get my car)

I guess F56 SE production will continue to around early summer.
 
teslarati97 said:
I don't think private sellers are going to ask for the purchaser's tax return to verify if they truly qualified for the $4k rebate (would have just gone to dealership).
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The used EV tax credit is only available for purchases through a dealer, so qualifying for it would never be a question at all with a private seller.
 
Puppethead said:
BMW is now going to build EVs in the US so maybe there there's hope for MINI in a few years. I guess the "Inflation Reduction Act" is really working.
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There are already news articles saying that if the Republicans take the House and Senate, they'll roll back all of Biden's changes, including the IRA. So, BMW, Toyota, Samsung, Micron, and all of those other companies that have expressed plans to build factories in the US may flip.
 
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