Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

[TeslaInvestors]

I think it will be good to have a mega thread for Tesla related discussions, consolidated into one place. Otherwise, so many threads on small topics just get lost quickly.
So, please feel free to post any positive or negative news here to keep the discussion going.

Here are some of my observations. Tesla is losing sales very fast in Europe. Subsidies are either ending or decreasing in many countries. In USA, even with full tax credit, the Model S&X sales have declined quite a bit compared to previous years. Some of the countries are so bad, I think it's better for Tesla to just shutter their operations in those countries.

It also seems to me that the Model S&X owners are returning their cars and getting a Model 3 instead, the latest gig. So, most of the Model 3 sales are coming from the higher priced Model S&X sales. This is going to be a huge drag for Tesla's profitability.
I don't believe for a moment that Tesla will see Q3 profitability. if a man can lie openly about going private with $420 price target , funding secured with only the shareholder vote pending (and not correct it in days), then I think that man can lie about anything.

Fire away! Let the war of words begin

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Belgian police goes green. Deploys Tesla Model S in their police fleet. And a green colored generator.

 

[bwilson4web]

Funny, I opened a poll to see if the average of crowd guesses can predict TSLA profit or loss:
https://priuschat.com/threads/q3-countdown.199184/

I'm reporting this post because generally it is bad practice to post a link to another forum. It looks too much like trying to scarf members and that is NOT my intention.

If the moderators would prefer a parallel poll here and remove this post, I'm OK with that if we can use the same buckets (i.e., responses.) I have a foot in both forums and can do the math.

Bob Wilson

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Funny, I opened a poll to see if the average of crowd guesses can predict TSLA profit or loss:
https://priuschat.com/threads/q3-countdown.199184/

I'm reporting this post because generally it is bad practice to post a link to another forum. It looks too much like trying to scarf members and that is NOT my intention.

If the moderators would prefer a parallel poll here and remove this post, I'm OK with that if we can use the same buckets (i.e., responses.) I have a foot in both forums and can do the math.

Bob Wilson

I'm not a member of priuschat; have never owned or leased a Prius. So I can't vote there.
But I will warn people to not rely too much on what Elon and Deepak promised. If you look in the forums, it appears many people are having trouble getting their cars due to quality issues. So, I won't be surprised to see Q3 model 3 deliveries below 40,000. Can't rule out below 30k either.
So, profitability will be a far cry in Q3.

 

[bwilson4web]

Q3 model 3 deliveries below 40,000. Can't rule out below 30k either.

• 3,333/wk ~= 40000 / 12
• 2,500/wk ~= 30000 / 12

Looking at Q2 SEC metrics, "Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761)": https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459018016465/tsla-ex991_6.htm

Tesla produced 53,339 cars in Q2. Yet midway through Q2, Tesla added another production line in a tent. Tesla also had several assembly line shutdowns to fix bottlenecks. To get such low production numbers in the Model 3, Tesla would have to shutdown production and turn off the tent line for half the quarter. Does that seem realistic?

At 5,000 Model 3 per week that would be 60,000 for the 12 week, Q3. Given the addition of an assembly line and fixing the two, existing line bottlenecks, it would be nearly a doubling of Model 3 production. Is that realistic, perhaps.

The last week of June, Tesla reports 5,000 Model 3 in a week. Given Elon's OCD management style, I doubt it will be any easier. For example, there was one report of the assembly line workers sent home because they failed to meet their shift production quota.

Recent reports claim the paint shop is the current bottleneck. It isn't clear that fixing that bottleneck would make sense in Q3. Q4 would be better given the environmental challenge of adding or expanding the paint shop.

Regardless, Bloomberg reports "4,838" Model 3 per week: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Bob Wilson

​

 

[TeslaInvestors]

• 3,333/wk ~= 40000 / 12
• 2,500/wk ~= 30000 / 12

Looking at Q2 SEC metrics, "Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761)": https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459018016465/tsla-ex991_6.htm

Tesla produced 53,339 cars in Q2. Yet midway through Q2, Tesla added another production line in a tent. Tesla also had several assembly line shutdowns to fix bottlenecks. To get such low production numbers in the Model 3, Tesla would have to shutdown production and turn off the tent line for half the quarter. Does that seem realistic?

At 5,000 Model 3 per week that would be 60,000 for the 12 week, Q3. Given the addition of an assembly line and fixing the two, existing line bottlenecks, it would be nearly a doubling of Model 3 production. Is that realistic, perhaps.

The last week of June, Tesla reports 5,000 Model 3 in a week. Given Elon's OCD management style, I doubt it will be any easier. For example, there was one report of the assembly line workers sent home because they failed to meet their shift production quota.

Recent reports claim the paint shop is the current bottleneck. It isn't clear that fixing that bottleneck would make sense in Q3. Q4 would be better given the environmental challenge of adding or expanding the paint shop.

Regardless, Bloomberg reports "4,838" Model 3 per week: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Bob Wilson

I'm sorry, but I was talking about deliveries, not production that you are obsesses with. I can understand why. Tesla likes to misdirect investors to the wrong place But the delivery number is the one that matters for profitability and cash flow.

I don't think 3k or 4k or 5k a week matters anymore. It is the demand that is now the issue. Have you seen the overflowing storage lots around the country? Here is the Burbank lot. I wish there is some IEV reporter who can go fly a drone over this lot. It may resemble the Volkswagen diesel car lot that was posted somewhere.

 

[bwilson4web]

I'm sorry, but I was talking about deliveries, not production that you are obsesses with. I can understand why. Tesla likes to misdirect investors to the wrong place But the delivery number is the one that matters for profitability and cash flow.

We agree because that is when the cash transfers. But there is a curious metric called "dealer prep" that refers to getting the car ready for delivery to the customer. How long is non-Tesla dealer prep and Tesla dealer prep?

I don't think 3k or 4k or 5k a week matters anymore. It is the demand that is now the issue.

So far, we can agree.

Have you seen the overflowing storage lots around the country? Here is the Burbank lot. I wish there is some IEV reporter who can go fly a drone over this lot. It may resemble the Volkswagen diesel car lot that was posted somewhere.
View attachment 2155

Do you have any measurement of the vehicle duration in those lots? Preferably with specific dates of the observations with how many cars remained?

You've made a strong argument that Tesla held back production vehicles to ensure Q3 and Q4 deliveries so their customers would get the full $7.5k Federal tax credit. What you haven't provided is Tesla Model 3 vehicle registrations, the true metric of Model 3 deliveries. But I'm patient.

In ~27 days we'll have the Q3 results and know how much gross profit Tesla made . . . 27 days and counting.

Bob Wilson

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Do you have any measurement of the vehicle duration in those lots? Preferably with specific dates of the observations with how many cars remained?

You've made a strong argument that Tesla held back production vehicles to ensure Q3 and Q4 deliveries so their customers would get the full $7.5k Federal tax credit. What you haven't provided is Tesla Model 3 vehicle registrations, the true metric of Model 3 deliveries. But I'm patient.

Nope. That is hard to get. I doubt even Tesla is keeping track, as apparently the delivery people can't locate customer cars at the last moment
But anecdotal stories from haters is that more trucks going in with cars than coming out. And some have said, the stockpile is growing.
This is where we all see the same picture but come to different conclusions

In ~27 days we'll have the Q3 results and know how much gross profit Tesla made . . . 27 days and counting. Bob Wilson

Yes, in thirty days, we will know deliveries and production from the delivery note.
You will have to wait another 30-40 days for the Q3 results though.

 

[interestedinEV]

OK, here is the what I understand. There are those who believe that Tesla is over-hyped and is going to fall on its face soon. There are others in this forum who believe that Tesla has what it takes (management, technology, market share, brand and name recognition etc) to weather whatever the competition throws at them. And then there are others (me included) who believe that Tesla has great strengths, but that competition has become a lot more aggressive and there are headwinds before Tesla. However, we don't believe that Tesla's demise is imminent. The shorts may be right, but we need to some hard evidence that things are not going well for Tesla. For now it is innuendoes, and fuzzy connections. I also find it ironic that a super thread on Tesla investors is started by a person with a handle TeslaInvestors. So given that I have no information that would prove that the shorts are right or wrong, I will watch and see till more solid information is available.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

I also find it ironic that a super thread on Tesla investors is started by a person with a handle TeslaInvestors. So given that I have no information that would prove that the shorts are right or wrong, I will watch and see till more solid information is available.

Yeah, it's ambiguous, isn't it?
A more apt name would be "Mega thread for Tesla investors by TeslaInvestors of Tesla investors"

Looking forward to insideevs' guess of Tesla deliveries tomorrow morning.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Sold the remaining put options today that I bought on the fraudulent pop. Made a tidy bit fo profit. I was hoping, there will be this kind of dip when the go private dream was dumped. But that didn't pan out.
The problem with options is the gain is diluted. Instead of making almost $100 on each share shorted, I made only about $35 on each put option shares

Thanks to Elon; he keeps attacking the stock price for some reason. Now he has moved on to abusive language for reporters and calling the British rescuer a "child rapist". He has entered self destruction mode.

Tesla is full of surprises.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I don't believe for a moment that Tesla will see Q3 profitability.

I certainly hope you're right! As a strong fan of Tesla, I very much want to see them continue to plow their profits -- their very real profits, which FUDsters keep claiming Tesla doesn't make -- back into growing the company, rather than fritter those profits away by paying dividends to stockholders. Thank goodness Tesla is (in this one respect) being run the old-fashioned way, concentrating on long-term growth and health of the business! It is concentrating on short-term gains which has ruined so many once-sound companies, after the "greed is good" movement of the 1980s took hold on Wall Street and among corporate raiders.

As with Amazon.com, there will be a time when Tesla has grown to the size that it wants to reach, and will slow its growth and start making a consistent quarterly profit. But here's hoping that, just like Amazon.com, Tesla will continue to ignore the whining about "unprofitability" from would-be investors until Tesla -- and not short-term investors -- decides the time is right to slow growth.

"Really, the problem is like people get too focused on like what's happening in the space of a few weeks or a few months. This is -- maximum of investing should not be focused on short-term things. You should be focused on long-term things."

"We have no interest in satisfying the desires of day traders, like we couldn't care less. Please sell our stock and don't buy it."​

--Elon Musk during an investors' conference call

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Have you seen the overflowing storage lots around the country?

I see it as a measure of desperation on the part of those creating anti-Tesla FUD -- not you, TeslaInvestors; you're merely parroting that -- when they start whining about storage lots filling with Model 3's, as if that's somehow a bad thing! Yeah, as Tesla's production and deliveries continue to grow, the storage lots used for depots during the shipping process will -- of course! -- fill to overflowing, and Tesla will have to rent more lots.

Duh.

The anti-Tesla smear campaigners know that nobody will believe their previous FUD about Model 3 ramp up being a failure, imminent collapse of Tesla's finances, etc. etc., because Model 3 production and deliveries are now ramping up quickly. So they have now turned to a much more desperate, and I'd say laughable, claim that overflowing storage lots mean Tesla can't sell what it's producing! They are also whining about the cancellation rate on the reservations, hoping that people won't notice that the cancellation rate of 24% is actually 1% lower than it was for the Model S back in its early production days.

As Elon said, when Tesla reached the milestone of producing 5000 Model 3's a week: "I think we just became a real car company." And overflowing storage lots for cars awaiting the next stage of shipping/delivery is one sign of that!

Go Tesla -- Keep Going Tesla!

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Fire away! Let the war of words begin

Why? It's over. There's no longer any purpose to arguing with serial Tesla bashers. They lost. Tesla won.

Tesla is now ramping up production of its first high-volume car, and will never again be in danger of financial collapse.

You anti-Tesla bashers lost. Get over it.

The Five Stages of Grief

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance.

Y'all are stuck at stage 1. You need to move on.

Go Tesla! -- Keep Going Tesla!

​

 

[bwilson4web]

I'm content to wait to November 1.

Bob Wilson

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Pretty bad import numbers for Tesla China reported by JL warren capital. July imports just 271 units instead of about 1500 a month average.
The extra 25% tariffs is killing Tesla sales in China. Stores idling, employees taking time off.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Sold the remaining put options today that I bought on the fraudulent pop. Made a tidy bit fo profit. I was hoping, there will be this kind of dip when the go private dream was dumped. But that didn't pan out.
The problem with options is the gain is diluted. Instead of making almost $100 on each share shorted, I made only about $35 on each put option shares

Thanks to Elon; he keeps attacking the stock price for some reason. Now he has moved on to abusive language for reporters and calling the British rescuer a "child rapist". He has entered self destruction mode.

Tesla is full of surprises.

Whoa, sold too soon
As I was saying, Elon is in self destruct mode now. Some analysts are copying my stuff

Tesla Analyst Says Musk Is on 'Self-Destructive' Path
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-analyst-says-leadership-skill-144119049.html

 

[bwilson4web]

I prefer to buy low and sell high. Buyer's market today.

Bob Wilson

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Tesla Analyst Says Musk Is on 'Self-Destructive' Path
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-analyst-says-leadership-skill-144119049.html

Seriously, you're citing a Yahoo Finance "article" as a reference? That's possibly even worse than citing Reeking Alpha!

I think the readers' comments to the IEVs news article on the subject cover it pretty well. I'd sum up the reaction from everybody who's not a serial Tesla basher as "Elon sips whiskey and takes a hit off a doobie during late-night podcast; stock shorters go nuts".

There seems to me to be a serious situation with several top Tesla execs all leaving within a short period of time, but the idea that any reasonable person would lose confidence in Elon because he took a single (legal) hit when offered a doobie during a late-night podcast interview, is pretty absurd. I think the evidence is clear that marijuana is less debilitating (not to mention not as bad for your health) than alcohol. Those who think smoking pot is somehow worse than drinking alcohol, need to join the 21st century.

​

 

[bwilson4web]

Found a 'short' tracking web site: http://shortsqueeze.com/shortinterest/stock/TSLA.htm

Short Interest (Shares Short)           32,720,600
Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)           2.2
Short Percent of Float                       25.82%
Short % Increase / Decrease                     -6%
Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior   34,989,500
Shares Float                           126,718,700
Trading Volume - Today                  22,332,777
Trading Volume - Average                15,118,800
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average          147.72%
% Owned by Insiders                          25.31%
% Owned by Institutions                      63.96%
. . .
Market Cap.                       $ 43,932,123,600

​

Let's take another peek next Saturday.

Bob Wilson