How long until BMW/MINI hits the 200,000 vehicle tax credit cap?

C

CuriousGeorge

Well-Known Member
To attempt to answer this question myself, I pulled up official sales figures from the IRS:

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit-quarterly-sales

The cumulative sales plot is essentially linear, but if you plot the yearly sales it appears to be closer to exponential, as you might expect, but in two waves/phases:

upload_2021-12-11_15-40-23.webp
The question is, why the big drop between 2018 and 2019? That's pre-pandemic, so the accompanying societal disruptions can't explain it. The i3 came on the market in 2017 and while it is on its way out, is still being sold. Is there some other popular BMW PHEV the production of which was stopped in 2018? Or did EV/PHEV sales in general just take a dip that year?

Anyway, skating out onto thin ice and fitting an exponential function to yearly sales in 2019, 2020, and 2021 (not quite complete), I estimate that the 200,000 threshold will be reached during the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2023 - IOW, about the time the new SE is supposed to make it to market! :(

(And yes, I realize that changes in the tax law have been proposed - including excluding vehicles built in China - that could impact all of this.)
 
CuriousGeorge said:
To attempt to answer this question myself, I pulled up official sales figures from the IRS:

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit-quarterly-sales

The cumulative sales plot is essentially linear, but if you plot the yearly sales it appears to be closer to exponential, as you might expect, but in two waves/phases:

View attachment 14416
The question is, why the big drop between 2018 and 2019? That's pre-pandemic, so the accompanying societal disruptions can't explain it. The i3 came on the market in 2017 and while it is on its way out, is still being sold. Is there some other popular BMW PHEV the production of which was stopped in 2018? Or did EV/PHEV sales in general just take a dip that year?

Anyway, skating out onto thin ice and fitting an exponential function to yearly sales in 2019, 2020, and 2021 (not quite complete), I estimate that the 200,000 threshold will be reached during the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2023 - IOW, about the time the new SE is supposed to make it to market! :(

(And yes, I realize that changes in the tax law have been proposed - including excluding vehicles built in China - that could impact all of this.)
Click to expand...
A little more digging suggests that the dip or offset may be related to this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...f6dac0-fead-11ea-b0e4-350e4e60cc91_story.html

Regardless, it is unfortunate timing that BMW/MINI looks like it will hit the 200k mark right around the time the new EV is released.
 
From the news coverage I’ve seen, it looks like the new EV tax credits (as they’re currently written, which of course could change) Congress may approve sometime in the next few weeks as part of the Build Back Better bill are set to replace the existing EV tax incentives that begin to decrease after reaching a threshold of 200,000 units sold.

If passed, the proposed new EV tax credits (which will have no limits based on quantities of units sold) will go into effect for 10 years beginning on January 1, 2022, and will include a $7,500 credit on the new SE as long as its battery is rated at 40 kWh or greater during the first five years the credit is available and at least 50 kWh during its second five years of availability. And I expect the new SE’s battery to meet those targets since the smaller of the two batteries offered in the Ora Cat, the Chinese EV the new SE will be based on, is rated at 58 kWh (besides, I think it’s likely MINI will use the Ora Cat’s larger 63 kWh battery).

There are all kinds of benefits to the new EV tax credits as currently proposed — including no longer tying how much a person makes to how much of an incentive they’ll qualify for, and making the credit an instant point-of-sale discount at the time you purchase an EV beginning in 2023 (!) — but one massive downside for people interested in the current SE, whose battery is rated at just 32.64 kWh, is that the new minimum 40 kWh requirement will decrease the amount of the tax incentive available on a 2022 or 2023 SE from $7,500 currently to just $4,000 after December 31, 2021.* :(

Which is why I REALLY hope my ‘22 SE, which just arrived at the port in Baltimore two days ago, gets to my dealer in time for me to take delivery this year!

(*As currently proposed, the new EV credits will go into effect January 1, 2022, whether they’re approved this year or next — meaning if they’re not approved until next year, they’ll be retroactive from January 1, 2022. If it does take Congress until a few weeks into January or February to approve, I certainly hope that people who take delivery of new SEs in the new year before Build Back Better is signed into law will still qualify for the full $7,500 tax incentive currently available — especially since I could be one of them! — because BMW clearly isn’t going to reach their threshold of 200,000 EVs sold by then. But I haven’t seen this addressed in any of the coverage I’ve read so far.)
 
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Puppethead said:
I believe MINI is considered a separate brand from BMW, so they aren't lumped together for the 200,000 limit
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That was my understanding as well (based on the Volvo/Polestar situation), but further research suggests that they are indeed lumped together.

Clarity would be good - any IRS employees on this forum? :)
 
Look at Ford and GM on the IRS website. Note how Ford has Ford and Lincoln. Note how GM has Chevy and Caddy. Now look at VW, Porsche, Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini (is it listed?), and something else VW owns. I'm not sure why Ford and GM have their brands lumped, but VW and BMW don't.
 
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