Ford's battery problem vs. Toyota batteries

[bwilson4web]

Source: Ford Content Sourcing EV Batteries Instead Of Making Them

...
as FoMoCo’s head of product development and purchasing, Hau Thai-Tang, revealed in a recent analyst call. “We don’t have that volume initially to justify that capital expenditure,”
...
Thai-Tang also pointed to Toyota as a cautionary tale of what happens when an automaker invests heavily in one type of battery. “They invested to vertically integrate nickel-metal hydride batteries for their hybrids. And after spending over $1 billion to do that, the technology shifted to lithium ion, and they were among the last to switch over. I don’t want to put Ford in that position.”​

I am reminded that nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries were subject to a patent limitation about the size. The patent limitations all but forced Toyota to invest in NiMH production. Furthermore, Toyota had at least 20 years ($50 million/year) to recoup their battery investment which they did. This smells of the old trope, "Toyota Prius is not profitable." At least Toyota designed, developed, and sold a lot of NiMH traction battery hybrids and switched to LiON when it made sense.

This is another case that Sandy Munro pointed out how ossified management wants to outsource all of the car and at the end of the assembly line, attach their badge. Their ability to innovate doesn't exist.

Bob Wilson

 

[marshall]

But Tesla doesn't make their batteries either. They buy from Panasonic or CATL.

I can certainly see why there is some hesitation in battery manufacturing due to the possibility of a solid state battery lurking in the background.

Is any car manufacture, making their own batteries currently?

 

[gooki]

BYD make their own but batteries.

I believe next year the Toyota Panasonic JV will be finalized, essentially meaning Toyota will be making its own lithium ion batteries.

Tesla is expected to start it's own cell production this year or next.

 

[gooki]

Reading that article is scary. Ford's EV volume intends to be very low for the foreseeable future. Below 150,000 unit annually.

 

[bwilson4web]

But Tesla doesn't make their batteries either. They buy from Panasonic or CATL.

Source: https://electrek.co/2020/02/11/tesla-building-pilot-battery-cell-manufacturing-line-fremont/

...
Tesla currently buy cells from Panasonic made in Japan for Model S and Model X, as well as cells made by Panasonic at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada for Model 3.

The automaker used those cells, which they help design, to make their own modules and battery packs, but they have never produced their own cells.

It would be a brand new product line for Tesla.

The cells produced on Tesla’s new pilot production line would be the first official cells manufactured by Tesla.
...​

Ford apparently isn't even interested in the Nevada co-location of cell and packs that eliminates moving cells over roads and rail lines.

Source_2: https://jamesclear.com/first-principles

“I tend to approach things from a physics framework,” Musk said in an interview. “Physics teaches you to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. So I said, okay, let’s look at the first principles. What is a rocket made of? Aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, plus some titanium, copper, and carbon fiber. Then I asked, what is the value of those materials on the commodity market? It turned out that the materials cost of a rocket was around two percent of the typical price.”

Instead of buying a finished rocket for tens of millions, Musk decided to create his own company, purchase the raw materials for cheap, and build the rockets himself. SpaceX was born.

Within a few years, SpaceX had cut the price of launching a rocket by nearly 10x while still making a profit. Musk used first principles thinking to break the situation down to the fundamentals, bypass the high prices of the aerospace industry, and create a more effective solution.​

So I'm fairly confident Tesla will bring cell manufacturing in-house and avoid the 'profit' tax of Panasonic and CATL. Ford of course has different goals and objectives.

Bob Wilson

 

[gooki]

FWIW raw material cost for batteries is $35 per kWh. Maxwell dry electrode process eliminates the most power hungry aspect of battery production.

With the volumes Tesla is talking about I expect their cell price to be around $65 kWh. Significantly undercutting the market price.

 

[cmwade77]

BYD make their own but batteries.

I believe next year the Toyota Panasonic JV will be finalized, essentially meaning Toyota will be making its own lithium ion batteries.

Tesla is expected to start it's own cell production this year or next.

Umm, no the name says it all, Panasonic will be making the batteries for Toyota.

 

[gooki]

It's a 50/50 JV. So 50% of the cell profits comes back to Toyota.