Cheap Chinese cars

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R P

R P

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Doesn't look like they will be coming to the US.
https://insideevs.com/news/719283/chinese-ev-tariffs-biden-quadruple/
But what exactly are the US govt objectives? They pushed hard on the EV transition, which now seems to be stalling. One of the big causes of that is the high cost of fully electric cars. More EVs was supposed to help stop climate change or at least meet emission targets. Cheaper Chinese cars could really help that, and get us back on target.

In my case, doesn't matter, as I am fully ICE less with my two BEVs. I have the cars I want which should do me for quite some time going forward. But what about everybody else, and those that can't afford an expensive new car?
 
We need to be prepared for war. You can't do that without significant manufacturing capacity.

The fight against climate change is over. There is no way we will stop at 1.5 degrees C and more than likely we will pass 2 degrees C. All that is left is to accept the consequences, which will be war, property loss, famine and death.

Used EVs are pretty reasonable. I bought a Nissan Leaf with under 20,000 miles for under 20 grand. Hertz has been having a fire sale on their EVs. The last time I looked, Bolts were under 20 grand, Subarus where between $26,000 USD and $29,000 USD.
 
marshall said:
We need to be prepared for war. You can't do that without significant manufacturing capacity.

The fight against climate change is over. There is no way we will stop at 1.5 degrees C and more than likely we will pass 2 degrees C. All that is left is to accept the consequences, which will be war, property loss, famine and death.

Used EVs are pretty reasonable. I bought a Nissan Leaf with under 20,000 miles for under 20 grand. Hertz has been having a fire sale on their EVs. The last time I looked, Bolts were under 20 grand, Subarus where between $26,000 USD and $29,000 USD.
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So what you are saying is that we abandon the efforts meet the EV transition goals set just a few years ago? Buying cheap used EVs will not increase the total number of EVs share on the road.

Personally I never did believe that the EV transition and global warming goals would be met. We are still in a long term (relatively) earth recovery from the last ice age. The sea levels have been much higher in the past. Having said that I do believe in and support cleaner global air, for our heath and well being. But I agree we need to adapt.

China seems to be moving faster than any other country with their EV transition. That is good. Only problem, does that also mean they will be burning more coal to support their grid?

As for manufacturing, the US needs to stop supporting their losers, if they want more innovation and lower cost manufacturing. Reminds me of the UK back when they supported their loser car and aircraft manufacturing industries. Didn't work, and they went under anyways.

And I do fully recognize the Chinese threat to the world. They do not hide the fact and with their actions to take over the world. But I don't think wars will stop them. Its' just a matter of time when they will also be the superior military power. And space will be a big part of that. It will take a return to real innovation unencumbered by govt regulations to turn around the US. Anyway, that is my opinion. I live in Canada, and fully understand that we are totally irrelevant in this battle, and can only hope the US comes to their senses.
 
R P said:
Buying cheap used EVs will not increase the total number of EVs share on the road.
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Well there 4 more in my neighborhood. I think you are perfect example, where you increased the number of EVs on the road when you sold the Kona EV and bought another EV. So I don't think one can say it will not increase the number of EVs.

R P said:
Personally I never did believe that the EV transition and global warming goals would be met. We are still in a long term (relatively) earth recovery from the last ice age.
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The problem with that thinking is the rate in which change is happen, and human kind has never lived in those types of climates.

Anyhow, none of this matters. We will blast past 1.5 degrees C and it's getting more likely we will blast past 2 degrees C. The will to make the hard changes just isn't there. Just accept the consequences, prepare for war, and don't make your future adversary more powerful.
 
China cheap labor
R P said:
Doesn't look like they will be coming to the US.
https://insideevs.com/news/719283/chinese-ev-tariffs-biden-quadruple/
But what exactly are the US govt objectives?
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The EV transition objectives are the same and PROTECTING USA labor is part of that objective.

The Price of Evs in the United States are falling as well but will never be as low as China simply because of the labor costs differences.

In 2021, the last full year for which Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics offers data, the average Chinese worker earned 105,000 yuan a year, the equivalent of $16,153. The average American worker earned some $58,120 a year, 3.5 times his or her Chinese counterpart — still wide but not what it was.



. Which means while the Chinese EVs are less expensive they are roughly the same price for Chinese to buy as it costs an American to buy an american made EV (or any vehicle as far as that goes)

If we import the Chinese casr then that means we would be ending the American auto manufacturing Industry because we cannot compete at those price points. It's the same reason most of the stuff we buy comes from China and why we dont manufacture as many products as we did in the past.
 
China is accused of unfairly subsidizing their EV car makers, essentially dumping cheap cars onto the global market. That's the reasoning behind this, to protect the US auto industry. And no, the EV market is not stalling. It's just not growing as fast as companies projected.
 
The fight against climate change is not over. 1.5 degrees of warming ain't gonna happen, but 2 degrees is less catastrophic for humanity than 2.5 degrees, and 2.5 degrees is less catastrophic than 3, etc., etc.

And yes, the EV market will be fine in the long term. Companies like Ford and Hyundai/Kia are seeing sales grow rapidly as Tesla slips. But the U.S. does desperately need less expensive EVs. However they did it, the Chinese are 2 steps ahead of other car companies selling vehicles in the U.S.
 
Bruce M. said:
But the U.S. does desperately need less expensive EVs. However they did it, the Chinese are 2 steps ahead of other car companies selling vehicles in the U.S.
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There are plenty of non-Chinese affordable EVs available in Europe, but nobody bothers to bring them to the US market. US carmakers really need to get away from the expensive land yachts, but they make so much profit off of them they won't. You'd think they'd remember how Japan grew in dominance with affordable small cars in the 1980s.
 
Puppethead said:
There are plenty of non-Chinese affordable EVs available in Europe, but nobody bothers to bring them to the US market. US carmakers really need to get away from the expensive land yachts, but they make so much profit off of them they won't. You'd think they'd remember how Japan grew in dominance with affordable small cars in the 1980s.
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There's a reason that Ford's only "car" is the Mustang and the same reason GM just announced the end of the Chevy Malibu. Honda no longer imports their Fit. Americans want big, expensive trucks and SUVs. They want these giant, gas-guzzling machines so much they're willing to finance them with 8-year loans. How can US carmakers get away from their profitable land yachts if the market continues voting for them with their (borrowed) dollars?
 
R P said:
does that also mean they will be burning more coal to support their grid?
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My understanding is China has been cancelling and reducing the amount of Australian coal ordered. Furthermore, the Chinese have vastly increased their solar and wind generation resources which paired with their battery manufacturing means redirection away from the more expensive fossil fuels.

China is doing this for strong, economic reasons because it is cheaper to go solar and wind. It also reduces their health costs.

Bob Wilson
 
China is seeing a significant shift in energy sources:
upload_2024-5-13_5-15-53.webp

Wind and solar are cheaper than coal. Nuclear has a future with next generation nuclear cycles. Replacing uranium-water plants with thorium-salt will significantly reduce risks and improve thermal dynamic efficiency. China had already gone with supercritical steam generators that are substantially more efficient than older systems.

Higher temperatures in molten salt and supercritical steam significantly improves efficiency:

Eff = 1 - ( Tc / Th)​

Assuming a cold temperature of 100 C (i.e., boiling water at 1 bar), we get:
  • 43% = 1 - ( (100+273) / (374+273) ) :: subcritical (ordinary)
  • 54% = 1 - ( (100+273) / (538+273) ) :: supercritical (current practice)
  • 63% = 1 - ( (100+273) / (760+273) ) :: ultra-supercritical (research)
  • 373k 647k 811k 1033k :: kelvin conversions of C
Improved efficiency reduces how much heat is needed to generate a kWh of electricity.

Bob Wilson
​
 
While China may be working at increasing their renewables, they have not stopped their coal plant expansions.

upload_2024-5-13_6-29-36.webp
 
I was not aware of this source: https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/boom-and-bust-coal-2023/

upload_2024-5-13_9-22-34.webp

If as reported, China is adding supercritical plants the improved efficiency, 54% vs 43%, offsets some of the CO{2} from the added capacity.

From the same source web site:
upload_2024-5-13_9-31-55.webp

Certainly, it bears watching but I sure like the Chinese trend in solar and wind.

upload_2024-5-13_9-35-53.webp

BTW, I knew China had cut back on buying Australian coal purchases which significantly reduced their exports.

Bob Wilson
 
It's great to see China expanding their use of renewables like wind and solar. But the reality remains that coal is their main source of electrical power, and will remain so for many years to come. China has the 2nd highest coal reserves in the world, and they are not about to ignore or abandon that advantage.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-is-dominating-the-world-s-new-coal-power-plant-pipeline-1.2031188
They use coal as their main power generation just as the US uses natural gas. Wind and solar are too variable to use as the only or main source of power. And with China's population and industrial base, they very much need and depend on a stable and reliable source of power. Having said that it is great to see their EV expansion, as that at least could help air quality in the population centres. And hopefully they are also working on more clean coal burning technologies. The measure for that will be whether their overall emissions will drop or continue to rise over the next few years. I think in the US we will see emissions continue to drop with more renewables and natural gas displacing coal. And the slowdown in the rate of EV expansion will ease the pressures on the grid.
 
Regardless, this source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysi...-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are set to fall in 2024 and could be facing structural decline, due to record growth in the installation of new low-carbon energy sources.

The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows China’s CO2 emissions continuing to rebound from the nation’s “zero-Covid” period, rising by an estimated 4.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023.

The strongest growth was in oil demand and other sectors that had been affected by pandemic policies, until the lifting of zero-Covid controls at the end of 2022.
  • China has been seeing a boom in manufacturing, which has offset a contraction in demand for carbon-intensive steel and cement due to the ongoing real-estate slump.
  • The emissions rebound in 2023 has been accompanied by record installations of low-carbon electricity generating capacity, particularly wind and solar.
  • Hydro generation is set to rebound from record lows due to drought in 2022-23.
  • China’s economic recovery from Covid has been muted. To date, it has not repeated previous rounds of major infrastructure expansion after economic shocks.
  • There has been a surge of investment in manufacturing capacity, particularly for low-carbon technologies, including solar, electric vehicles and batteries.
  • This is creating an increasingly important interest group in China, which could affect the country’s approach to domestic and international climate politics.
  • On the other hand, coal power capacity continues to expand, setting the scene for a showdown between the country’s traditional and newly emerging interest groups.
Taken together, these factors all but guarantee a decline in China’s CO2 emissions in 2024.​

Bob Wilson
 
Never a good idea to under estimate what the peoples in other countries can achieve. For example, a 10x reduction in the cost of EV drones. I paid ~$300 for one from Costco last year only to buy a pair of $35 micro-drones yesterday. Worse, the Costco drone requires a more recent iPhone and the one I bought failed. Both drone and iPhone are down. But the $35 micro drone requires no iPhone.

Bob Wilson
 
marshall said:
Well there 4 more in my neighborhood. I think you are perfect example, where you increased the number of EVs on the road when you sold the Kona EV and bought another EV. So I don't think one can say it will not increase the number of EVs.

The problem with that thinking is the rate in which change is happen, and human kind has never lived in those types of climates.

Anyhow, none of this matters. We will blast past 1.5 degrees C and it's getting more likely we will blast past 2 degrees C. The will to make the hard changes just isn't there. Just accept the consequences, prepare for war, and don't make your future adversary more powerful.
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War? Possible, people get silly, and we seem to like to solve problems that way. The temperature stuff is just silly. We cannot have a serious debate on climate with 50 or so years worth of somewhat useful data. Totally impossible without consistently obtained data, which we don't really have. The sun can burp and fry us. A few volcano's go off we might be a tad chilly for a while. If Yellowstone goes up, life on earth is going to get very interesting. 200 or so years is climate, 20 years is weather.

China is going to build lots of EV's and lots of people are going to buy them, all the tariff's in the world are not going to change that. Downward pressure on prices outside the US also creates downward pressure in the US, regardless of what we do tariff-wise. China is not going to be able to subsidize the industry forever at extreme rates, but they seem to continually reduce the cost of the components that make up most of this stuff. Bodes well long term.
 
R P said:
Seems like the Gen Zers want the cheaper Chinese cars. They also are more concerned about Climate Change and would like to buy EVs if they could afford them to help mitigate that.
https://insideevs.com/news/720467/young-people-china-study-autopacific/

And if the rest of the world keeps buying Chinese cars, where will that leave the US in 2030?
https://insideevs.com/news/720591/ev-tariff-biden-august-cm/
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I think there is a market for small, affordable EVs in the U.S., despite the general American taste for land yachts. The Bolt sold in quite respectable numbers, despite having been stalled for quite a while due to that big recall. I think the EV 3 and other small and affordable vehicles -- like the new Bolt, whenever it arrives,as well as the affordable EVs Ford is working on -- will find an audience. Right now, if you want an EV and don't have 40 grand to spend, pickings are slim.
 
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