Economically California is the 5th largest economy in the world. In order of the size of the economy it goes 1. China, 2. EU. 3 US. 4. Japan 5. California. 6. Germany
Granted, California is not completely representative. For instance its taste for station wagons which are very popular in the EU is long gone. But it also doesn't have quite have the taste for light trucks the larger US market has making California more like the rest of the world. It has however often been referred to as the most competitive market in the world. And it is the home of one famous EV make and the home of much regulatory policy that has rippled throughout the world. And it is the home of Hollywood which has been important culturally in a global way and the home of Silicon Valley which has been important for business and culture. California man not remain as influential but it has been influential in a defining way during the internal combustion era and that era as results in California show is quickly coming to an end.
It also seems California was the market for BMW which I will argue has defined the internal combustion era. I know that BMW was not the largest maker. It didn't make the Model T and it didn't make the Camry or the VW Bug. I am also aware during this end stage of internal combustion that BMW has not produced the highest quality vehicles. BMW has in the past produced top quality and top reliability vehicles but in later decades those honors belonged to Toyota and Honda. However BMW as the "Ultimate Driving Machine" did produce the vehicles that people were most willing to pay a premium for and seemed to have the highest status for most people even outliving the yuppie claim. At the very top end Mercedes seemed to have an edge at times, but in general BMW seemed to be the brand more people were willing to pay a premium for. And in particular its 3 Series seemed to capture its mass market premium appeal especially in the land of California. California could be said to be the land of BMW.
But now when you look you don't see new BMW's in California. It is to the point that that it is hard to tell new BMWs from old BMWs. You don't see new BMW cars but you also don't see new BMW SUVs and its the new BMW SUVs which BMW claims is keeping its total brand sales from falling in the wake of 29% decline in sale of its cars globally- note BMW doesn't make light trucks. You don't see either new BMW cars or new BMW trucks in California. What you see is a complete almost instant route by EVs of BMW vehicles. And you also don't see BMW with a real competitor product on the horizon and BMW's EV offerings have taken a huge hit to sales as well.
This is the trend for the entire world. The new key trend setting market will not be California. It will be China and it is already the largest auto-market in the world by pretty much all measures, just as by honest measures China is the largest economy in the world right now. So just as BMW has disappeared from California the new auto brands are going to be companies like BYD and Nio.
This brings me to the most important points in this post. First notice how quick this happened to defining brand of the ICE era in its defining market. Also realize that this happened to this brand because of BEVs. Also realize now it is cheaper, much cheaper to make BEVs than to make internal combustion engine vehicles because with BEVs its not selling into the head wind of a peaked and declining market for ICE and there is no facing of unrecoverable prospective sunk costs. And also it is just cheaper to make a BEVs period. And the superior value proposition of BEVs is recognized by consumers, one firm does it without an advertising budget competing against defining BMW in California. Also don't be distracted by anomalies like the F150, globally its not even a niche, and in CA its outsold by an BEV car.
The transition this most resembles is the transition from landlines to cell phones. Just as with not having a cord making it so you can only take calls in a single room and BEVs make it so you don' t go to gas stations anymore and make it so you can even use your own electrons and energy. Plus they are just plain higher value better products in every way and don't come with the guilt factor. If you're in a culture where your generation did things that killed social mobility as with current parents in the US you don't want the added guilt of having poisoned future generations and having put them at risk of un-survivable war that guilt factor is huge. So imagine a switch where owning corded telephones as opposed to cell phones was not only stupid but also unethical now imagine that the switch actually lowered your bill. How fast would that happen? Look at California.
Granted, California is not completely representative. For instance its taste for station wagons which are very popular in the EU is long gone. But it also doesn't have quite have the taste for light trucks the larger US market has making California more like the rest of the world. It has however often been referred to as the most competitive market in the world. And it is the home of one famous EV make and the home of much regulatory policy that has rippled throughout the world. And it is the home of Hollywood which has been important culturally in a global way and the home of Silicon Valley which has been important for business and culture. California man not remain as influential but it has been influential in a defining way during the internal combustion era and that era as results in California show is quickly coming to an end.
It also seems California was the market for BMW which I will argue has defined the internal combustion era. I know that BMW was not the largest maker. It didn't make the Model T and it didn't make the Camry or the VW Bug. I am also aware during this end stage of internal combustion that BMW has not produced the highest quality vehicles. BMW has in the past produced top quality and top reliability vehicles but in later decades those honors belonged to Toyota and Honda. However BMW as the "Ultimate Driving Machine" did produce the vehicles that people were most willing to pay a premium for and seemed to have the highest status for most people even outliving the yuppie claim. At the very top end Mercedes seemed to have an edge at times, but in general BMW seemed to be the brand more people were willing to pay a premium for. And in particular its 3 Series seemed to capture its mass market premium appeal especially in the land of California. California could be said to be the land of BMW.
But now when you look you don't see new BMW's in California. It is to the point that that it is hard to tell new BMWs from old BMWs. You don't see new BMW cars but you also don't see new BMW SUVs and its the new BMW SUVs which BMW claims is keeping its total brand sales from falling in the wake of 29% decline in sale of its cars globally- note BMW doesn't make light trucks. You don't see either new BMW cars or new BMW trucks in California. What you see is a complete almost instant route by EVs of BMW vehicles. And you also don't see BMW with a real competitor product on the horizon and BMW's EV offerings have taken a huge hit to sales as well.
This is the trend for the entire world. The new key trend setting market will not be California. It will be China and it is already the largest auto-market in the world by pretty much all measures, just as by honest measures China is the largest economy in the world right now. So just as BMW has disappeared from California the new auto brands are going to be companies like BYD and Nio.
This brings me to the most important points in this post. First notice how quick this happened to defining brand of the ICE era in its defining market. Also realize that this happened to this brand because of BEVs. Also realize now it is cheaper, much cheaper to make BEVs than to make internal combustion engine vehicles because with BEVs its not selling into the head wind of a peaked and declining market for ICE and there is no facing of unrecoverable prospective sunk costs. And also it is just cheaper to make a BEVs period. And the superior value proposition of BEVs is recognized by consumers, one firm does it without an advertising budget competing against defining BMW in California. Also don't be distracted by anomalies like the F150, globally its not even a niche, and in CA its outsold by an BEV car.
The transition this most resembles is the transition from landlines to cell phones. Just as with not having a cord making it so you can only take calls in a single room and BEVs make it so you don' t go to gas stations anymore and make it so you can even use your own electrons and energy. Plus they are just plain higher value better products in every way and don't come with the guilt factor. If you're in a culture where your generation did things that killed social mobility as with current parents in the US you don't want the added guilt of having poisoned future generations and having put them at risk of un-survivable war that guilt factor is huge. So imagine a switch where owning corded telephones as opposed to cell phones was not only stupid but also unethical now imagine that the switch actually lowered your bill. How fast would that happen? Look at California.
