Bump in Tesla competition or just announcements?

[bwilson4web]

More a question for @Domenick but also the community. I get the impression a lot of EU manufacturers have recently decided to announce their Tesla competing cars. Perhaps there is some way to map 'Tesla' competition announcements per month?

Given Tesla did not go out of business in the first two quarters of 2018 and solved their production problems, I'm wondering how many of these late entries are reactive. Certainly, nothing suggests proactive sharing of Elon's vision of CO{2} reduction and cost savings.

Bob Wilson

 

[Domenick]

I think it's mostly a matter of perception. OEMs have a pretty long development cycle and product coming out this year and next has been in the works for some time.

I wouldn't necessarily look at them as competition for Tesla, but as offerings that will (hopefully, at least) expand the market. I fully expect some of these products to cannibalize some of the company's own product. For instance, E-Pace versus I-Pace is a battle I see the gas burner losing badly (to grab an example still fresh in my mind after watching an E-Pace review a while back).

No doubt Tesla may lose some specific sales to these, but it may also just as easily gain sales as the new entrants help popularize electric vehicles as a whole.

 

[David Green]

I think it's mostly a matter of perception. OEMs have a pretty long development cycle and product coming out this year and next has been in the works for some time.

I wouldn't necessarily look at them as competition for Tesla, but as offerings that will (hopefully, at least) expand the market. I fully expect some of these products to cannibalize some of the company's own product. For instance, E-Pace versus I-Pace is a battle I see the gas burner losing badly (to grab an example still fresh in my mind after watching an E-Pace review a while back).

No doubt Tesla may lose some specific sales to these, but it may also just as easily gain sales as the new entrants help popularize electric vehicles as a whole.

Domenick, I think you are correct, looking at the data sets I have seen cars like I-Pace will hit Tesla harder initially, as nearly all of the people pre ordering that I see on the forums were previously Tesla owners, reservation holders, and/or dreamers. Once the production gets up to speed, and cars like the I-Pace are in the showrooms, I think they will take take on the ICE vehicles directly. In the Jaguar lineup the F-Pace is the one that I-Pace will hurt the most, I-Pace is smaller then F-Pace, but interior space of I-Pace is larger then the F-Pace... A will attach a photo for you to compare sizes... E-Pace is tiny... View attachment 1606

 

[Domenick]

Domenick, I think you are correct, looking at the data sets I have seen cars like I-Pace will hit Tesla harder initially, as nearly all of the people pre ordering that I see on the forums were previously Tesla owners, reservation holders, and/or dreamers. Once the production gets up to speed, and cars like the I-Pace are in the showrooms, I think they will take take on the ICE vehicles directly. In the Jaguar lineup the F-Pace is the one that I-Pace will hurt the most, I-Pace is smaller then F-Pace, but interior space of I-Pace is larger then the F-Pace... A will attach a photo for you to compare sizes... E-Pace is tiny... View attachment 1606

Yes, you are correct. F-Pace is definitely a lot closer to the budget E-Pace. I need to brush up on F-Pace reviews. I totally had it confused with the F-Type, which is, of course, a totally different kind of machine.

 

[David Green]

Yes, you are correct. F-Pace is definitely a lot closer to the budget E-Pace. I need to brush up on F-Pace reviews. I totally had it confused with the F-Type, which is, of course, a totally different kind of machine.

My Jaguar salesman recently went to I-pace training in LA, and got to drive, etc... He came back and said WOW... If someone test drives the I-Pace we will never sell them any other car in our showroom. He was impressed, I think he finally understood why I insisted to place a deposit even before they were officially taking orders.

 

[Domenick]

In the spirit of the thread, the Jaguar I-Pace was first revealed in November of 2016, with launch dates said to be around the middle of 2018, so that's about a 2-year heads up.

VW's batch of next-gen EVs starts in 2019 with the hatchback that's not coming to the U.S., so the Crozz will be the first in 2020, which was first revealed in April of 2017. That's a 3-year span from Motorshow to showroom.

News of the Audi e-tron first appeared in October of 2016 and should arrive later this year, so another 2-year span.

The first hints of an EV, which turned out to be the Hyundai Kona came in Nov 2016, though solid news only came in June of '17. But that's still 1-1/2-2 years notice.

I'm sensing a pattern of 2 years from reveal to market, so all the things showing up now were, for the most part, announced a couple years prior.

 

[David Green]

In the spirit of the thread, the Jaguar I-Pace was first revealed in November of 2016, with launch dates said to be around the middle of 2018, so that's about a 2-year heads up.

VW's batch of next-gen EVs starts in 2019 with the hatchback that's not coming to the U.S., so the Crozz will be the first in 2020, which was first revealed in April of 2017. That's a 3-year span from Motorshow to showroom.

News of the Audi e-tron first appeared in October of 2016 and should arrive later this year, so another 2-year span.

The first hints of an EV, which turned out to be the Hyundai Kona came in Nov 2016, though solid news only came in June of '17. But that's still 1-1/2-2 years notice.

I'm sensing a pattern of 2 years from reveal to market, so all the things showing up now were, for the most part, announced a couple years prior.

If 2 years is your reporting window, you guys better dig for some scoop on what GM is up to, I hear they are very close to production with their next BEV... I am surprised they have been so quiet about it, but I would guess we will hear something from them at LA later this year if not sooner. I am really hoping a production E-tron, and Taycan make it to the LA show this year, that would really be amazing. I want to see the LA show dominated by EV's.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

If 2 years is your reporting window, you guys better dig for some scoop on what GM is up to, I hear they are very close to production with their next BEV...

What about the long-rumored Buick car with Voltec drivetrain? Of course that would be a PHEV. I hope that doesn't turn into car for the Chinese market only!

​

 

[Domenick]

If 2 years is your reporting window, you guys better dig for some scoop on what GM is up to, I hear they are very close to production with their next BEV... I am surprised they have been so quiet about it, but I would guess we will hear something from them at LA later this year if not sooner. I am really hoping a production E-tron, and Taycan make it to the LA show this year, that would really be amazing. I want to see the LA show dominated by EV's.

The next electric GM product is likely to be a Bolt-based CUV. My hunch would be a Detroit Auto Show launch, but LA is not out of the question.

 

[David Green]

The next electric GM product is likely to be a Bolt-based CUV. My hunch would be a Detroit Auto Show launch, but LA is not out of the question.

I know what the product will be (everyone has seen the leaked image, I assume?) but I am hoping you can get some official scoop? My guess is LA, as that is more the green car show... My guess is reveal at LA, media test drives at CES, and then release next fall about a year from now... The only questions I have is AWD? 60 KWH battery? Priced from 42K to 50K? Supercruise available?

Next year at Detroit GM will unveil the rear-mid engine Corvette?, and the 2020 2500HD pickups?, I do not think they need to do an EV there too, especially when the NAIAS is dying anyway...

 

[interestedinEV]

With the relaxation in CAFE standards in the US, is there going to be as much a push to EV's in the US? Europe may be a little friendlier climate. My 1 -c- is unless someone can come out with a $35,000 EV sedan with 220+ miles and be comfortable and sleek, Tesla will still own the market and most of the announcements will be "we will make it when we get to it".

 

[David Green]

With the relaxation in CAFE standards in the US, is there going to be as much a push to EV's in the US? Europe may be a little friendlier climate. My 1 -c- is unless someone can come out with a $35,000 EV sedan with 220+ miles and be comfortable and sleek, Tesla will still own the market and most of the announcements will be "we will make it when we get to it".

I do not think Tesla can build the 35K version of the model 3 and make money. They have a long way to go to optimize their manufacturing and distribution efficiency.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I do not think Tesla can build the 35K version of the model 3 and make money.

Well, since Elon Musk recently said that they can't yet build and sell the base $35k version of the car profitably -- he said that it will be a few more months before they can do so -- that's a pretty safe statement.

We may not see the $35k Model 3 offered for sale until the beginning of 2019.

I just hope the Trumpian tariffs won't force Tesla to raise prices across the board, because then the Usual Suspects will crow that they were "right" all along about Tesla not offering a TM3 for $35k... without, of course, admitting that accidentally turning out to be correct for the wrong reason isn't the same as being "right".

​

 

[David Green]

Well, since Elon Musk recently said that they can't yet build and sell the base $35k version of the car profitably -- he said that it will be a few more months before they can do so -- that's a pretty safe statement.

We may not see the $35k Model 3 offered for sale until the beginning of 2019.

I just hope the Trumpian tariffs won't force Tesla to raise prices across the board, because then the Usual Suspects will crow that they were "right" all along about Tesla not offering a TM3 for $35k... without, of course, admitting that accidentally turning out to be correct for the wrong reason isn't the same as being "right".

​

Tesla lied to investors and purchasers when their Model 3 unveiling showed a 35K Model 3, also being eligible for the $7500 tax rebate. 2 lies here, first there is no 35K car, Tesla adds a delivery fee of 1K to all cars, so we are at 36K, and then if you want any color other then black its another 1K, so 37K. That hypothetical 37K car does not have adaptive cruise control (unless you buy A/P for 5K) Heated Seats (unless you upgrade to the premium package for 5K) Hmm, That baby gets pricey when you want to add options that are standard on most other cars in the 37K price class (standard even in Toyota's at 27K).

 

[Lars]

Well, since Elon Musk recently said that they can't yet build and sell the base $35k version of the car profitably -- he said that it will be a few more months before they can do so -- that's a pretty safe statement.

We may not see the $35k Model 3 offered for sale until the beginning of 2019.

I just hope the Trumpian tariffs won't force Tesla to raise prices across the board, because then the Usual Suspects will crow that they were "right" all along about Tesla not offering a TM3 for $35k... without, of course, admitting that accidentally turning out to be correct for the wrong reason isn't the same as being "right".

​

There seem to be a lot of wanna bees. New EVs announced are always to appear "next year". Porsche, Maserati, BMW, Mercedes target the Model S and X. These cars, as sexy as they are, are priced over what most folks can afford.

On the other end of the spectrum the current target is the $35k (US) entry level Model 3 "dream machine" for the rest of us. The new 2019 Long Range Nissan Leaf, granted with somewhat less sportiness, will simply not sell for more than $35k. This price seems to be the water mark for mass market EVs. This version of the Leaf will also put price pressure on all ~200 mile EVs, inducing the Chevy Bolt.

But here is a potential game changer, by Tesla again. I would not be surprised, that once Tesla gets his house in order, they will put a $25k 'entry level' EV on the market. You need the initial investment - R&D and a factory capable of mass production - in place and the finances in order. Tesla at this point is obviously still struggling to achieve this state of stability. But once achieved, making EV is much simpler than manufacturing gas/oil burners.

The cost of the battery is still the killer. But if Tesla's existing battery technology is indeed "10 years ahead of the competition", as stated by some experts the know, Tesla could do it and even make profit on the $25k car. Not 30% per unit, but the numbers sold will carry the day. Such a drop in price would shake all traditional auto manufacturers, regardless where they operate.
This prediction was made by Tony Seba in his book, published in 2014, entitled 'Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation'.

 

[bwilson4web]

Tesla lied to investors and purchasers when their Model 3 unveiling showed a 35K Model 3, also being eligible for the $7500 tax rebate. 2 lies here, first there is no 35K car, Tesla adds a delivery fee of 1K to all cars, so we are at 36K, and then if you want any color other then black its another 1K, so 37K. That hypothetical 37K car does not have adaptive cruise control (unless you buy A/P for 5K) Heated Seats (unless you upgrade to the premium package for 5K) Hmm, That baby gets pricey when you want to add options that are standard on most other cars in the 37K price class (standard even in Toyota's at 27K).

If you truly believe this nonsense, the SEC wants to hear from you. Heck, the "whistleblower" provision is a no-cost lottery. Source: https://www.sec.gov/complaint/select.shtml

Questions and Complaints
Report a possible securities fraud

Ask a question or report a problem concerning your investments, your investment account or a financial professional

Learn about the whistleblower provisions in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act​

Bob Wilson

 

[David Green]

There seem to be a lot of wanna bees. New EVs announced are always to appear "next year". Porsche, Maserati, BMW, Mercedes target the Model S and X. These cars, as sexy as they are, are priced over what most folks can afford.

On the other end of the spectrum the current target is the $35k (US) entry level Model 3 "dream machine" for the rest of us. The new 2019 Long Range Nissan Leaf, granted with somewhat less sportiness, will simply not sell for more than $35k. This price seems to be the water mark for mass market EVs. This version of the Leaf will also put price pressure on all ~200 mile EVs, inducing the Chevy Bolt.

But here is a potential game changer, by Tesla again. I would not be surprised, that once Tesla gets his house in order, they will put a $25k 'entry level' EV on the market. You need the initial investment - R&D and a factory capable of mass production - in place and the finances in order. Tesla at this point is obviously still struggling to achieve this state of stability. But once achieved, making EV is much simpler than manufacturing gas/oil burners.

The cost of the battery is still the killer. But if Tesla's existing battery technology is indeed "10 years ahead of the competition", as stated by some experts the know, Tesla could do it and even make profit on the $25k car. Not 30% per unit, but the numbers sold will carry the day. Such a drop in price would shake all traditional auto manufacturers, regardless where they operate.
This prediction was made by Tony Seba in his book, published in 2014, entitled 'Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation'.

The New Nissan leaf is already a great value for most EV buyers.... On the 25K Tesla, if they cannot build the stripped down Model 3 for 35K, what makes you think they can go through development again, and build a 25K model? as the price goes down the numbers get much more complicated. None of the OEM's make money on small cars, they just do those for marketshare.

Tesla's battery tech is not 10 years ahead of anybody, any OEM can buy cells from Panasonic just like Tesla does, and build a similar battery. There are many parameters of battery performance, and Tesla has chosen a riskier chemistry then most others, but Tesla also leads in the area of fires...

 

[David Green]

If you truly believe this nonsense, the SEC wants to hear from you. Heck, the "whistleblower" provision is a no-cost lottery. Source: https://www.sec.gov/complaint/select.shtml

Questions and Complaints
Report a possible securities fraud

Ask a question or report a problem concerning your investments, your investment account or a financial professional

Learn about the whistleblower provisions in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act​

Bob Wilson

I have no reason to be a whistleblower, I am a spectator in this one as I do not work for, or supply to Tesla, not an equity or debt holder in any way, shape, or form, and most of all would not be a customer for their overpriced, and poorly built products.

 

[bwilson4web]

Ok, buy one share, ~$315, and file a complaint. In the meanwhile:


Bob Wilson

 

[David Green]

What does a rocket launch have to do with Tesla? SpaceX might be a better investment, they seem to have good management, and have been able to keep Elon from screwing it up by keeping him busy sleeping over at the Tesla factory.