Amazon Orders 100,000 Electric Delivery Trucks From Rivian

I

interestedinEV

Well-Known Member
bwilson4web said:
How many production units have been made as of 09/19/2019?
Click to expand...

Bob: You the know the answer, which is "None". However in all fairness, none have been promised for delivery on 09/19/2019. The indicated delivery dates are towards the end of 2020, and they are still sticking to it. The point is that they have a strategic plan, they have well heeled financial backers, they are tying up with suppliers (e.g. cox automotive) who can support them. They have a good name recognition and appear to be doing all things right. Are they going to pose an existential threat to Tesla or are they just another paper tiger? Only time will tell. However, I do not believe they can be ignored or written off. Real competition is coming to Tesla, whatever anyone says. That is not necessarily a bad thing overall.
 
Understand I'll feel better about Rivian's future once pre-production units roll off the line and production vehicles show up. Just going from 0 to 100,000 units in ~14 months is daunting considering the technical problems:
  • battery suppliers
    • trying to copy the multi-cell Tesla pack is wise but they would be #2 to try it
  • power electronics suppliers
    • ordinary silicon, power electronics is common but Tesla is already using silicon carbide
  • motors
    • efficient vs cost
  • ordinary body materials and parts suppliers
  • workforce training and production organization
  • distribution and service
That is a lot to do in 14 months but I'm patient. Still, let's revisit it when the production units begin to show up.

Bob Wilson
 
What wonderful news! I thought that Rivian already had an excellent chance of succeeding, with a major investment from Amazon.com and a deal with Ford, but this huge order (altho spaced out over 10 years) just about guarantees that the company will be successful!

Go Rivian!
​
 
bwilson4web said:
How many production units have been made as of 09/19/2019?
Click to expand...

I dunno what your intent was here Bob, but that comes across as a bit snarky. I think you know that this isn't a vehicle that Rivian currently has in development, or at least it's not one that they've ever mentioned as being in development.

This is a long-term order for future deliveries over 10 years. Amazon.com is planning ahead, and now Rivian has a pretty powerful incentive to develop a vehicle for that order! We will hope that the vehicle will find other buyers, too.

And how wonderful to see Amazon.com funding development of a BEV delivery van!
​
 
The market is littered with 'good idea' EVs that imploded going between concept-prototype and true production. It isn't the quality of engineering or ability to show what may be a good product. But rather, stepping from the first prototypes to production that has been 'a bridge too far.'

In one respect, Tesla has done this four times:
  1. Original roadster
  2. Original Model S
  3. Original Model X
  4. Original Model 3
Each and every time has seen predictions of gloom and doom followed by brief periods a slightly profitable production. Every new model introduction has benefited from lessons learned in the previous models and early production. There is a "shorts" cottage industry predicting the collapse of Tesla ... now sounding more of disc/record with a skip replaying the same hits over and over again.

It is a hard problem and one that existing car makers can handle if they can escape their legacy ICE engineering. I'm reminded of Bob Lutz claiming Tesla will fail because they don't have 'pickup sales' to support their EV work. Lutz failed to acknowledge that legacy ICE rules led to the discontinued Volt.

Go Rivian which is avoiding the 'public company' fly paper that Tesla got stuck in. Imaginary conversation at the "short" bar, 'If only Rivian would go public so we could short it. <sigh>'

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Understand I'll feel better about Rivian's future once pre-production units roll off the line and production vehicles show up. Just going from 0 to 100,000 units in ~14 months is daunting considering the technical problems:
Click to expand...

They are starting production in 2020 and they need get 10,000 units to Amazon by 2022. It is a little more than 3 + years. While I do not want to minimize the challenges, it is an achievable goal. Even if they can reach a capacity of 2-3000 units a month by end of 2021, they can supply Amazon with 10,000 trucks in 2022. The Rivian challenges would be to meet the Amazon commitments without affecting supplies to the general public. To avoid that, they need to ramp up correctly without the problems that Tesla had. Hence it is essential that the management ensure that they have the right production engineering and operation management people and systems in place today.

Amazon says the 100,000 electric delivery trucks order is the largest ever for this sort of vehicle. The company wants to have 10,000 of them on the streets by 2022. Rivian will have to deliver the other 90,000 units by 2030.


Pushmi-Pullyu said:
What wonderful news! I thought that Rivian already had an excellent chance of succeeding, with a major investment from Amazon.com and a deal with Ford, but this huge order (altho spaced out over 10 years) just about guarantees that the company will be successful!

Go Rivian!
​
Click to expand...

Don't forget the $350 million investment from Cox Automotive. Amazon has invested $700 million, Ford 500 million. Even compared to them the Cox investment is pretty impressive. Cox Automotive may not have the brand recognition or the cachet that Amazon or Ford have, but there is a lot they bring to the table. They own auto trader and KBB, so they have a pulse on the market. They control a lot of the transportation of cars, own car auctions, have service support networks etc. This means Rivian can establish a distribution chain easily without a lot of the investment. Tesla claimed that they could not meet deliveries as they did not have car carriers. Manaheim (a subsidiary of Cox) is one the biggest players in the auto-hauling business, so Rivian will not have that problem for example.

https://insideevs.com/news/370065/cox-investment-rivian-350-million/
 
interestedinEV said:
https://insideevs.com/news/371826/amazon-electric-delivery-trucks-rivian/

For those who are not on the Rivian Forum, here is link
https://rivianchat.com/forum/threads/amazon-gives-rivian-order-for-100-000-trucks.5355/#post-57516 (you may have to register)

Amazon says the 100,000 electric delivery trucks order is the largest ever for this sort of vehicle. The company wants to have 10,000 of them on the streets by 2022. Rivian will have to deliver the other 90,000 units by 2030.
Click to expand...


Huge win for Rivian, and Amazon... Gives Rivian production (cash flow) security, and very little new tech involved as I am sure these vehicles will use their same battery and drive technology, so its just the composite box that will be new tech for them. Also notice a few great things in the rendering, this is the first box rig I have seen unveiled that takes full advantage of the EV strengths (its low, on a skateboard). This is exactly where Rivian should focus to compliment their pickups and SUV's... Light weight box vehicles are a great logical step for EV's. Unlike the Tesla Semi, which has made zero progress since the unveil 2 years ago, I think this one will see production.
 
bwilson4web said:
Understand I'll feel better about Rivian's future once pre-production units roll off the line and production vehicles show up. Just going from 0 to 100,000 units in ~14 months is daunting considering the technical problems:
  • battery suppliers
    • trying to copy the multi-cell Tesla pack is wise but they would be #2 to try it
  • power electronics suppliers
    • ordinary silicon, power electronics is common but Tesla is already using silicon carbide
  • motors
    • efficient vs cost
  • ordinary body materials and parts suppliers
  • workforce training and production organization
  • distribution and service
That is a lot to do in 14 months but I'm patient. Still, let's revisit it when the production units begin to show up.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...


The difference in Rivian and Tesla is Rivian has partners to help them with manufacturing logistics, and engineering, where Elon wanted to go it alone (Elon thinks he is the smartest guy in every room) Rivian has partners, and a humble CEO that listens to people who have been there and done that..

Should also note Rivian is a customer of Sandy Munro, meaning they have been advised on all the Tesla current technology and how to better it in areas Tesla is weak... Rivian is a company built the right way, likely will see a much smoother ramp than Tesla has been able to achieve. I would not be surprised to see Rivain be able to flip the switch to profitability at about 50K units a year, where Tesla still loses at 300K units a year.
 
David Green said:
Should also note Rivian is a customer of Sandy Munro, meaning they have been advised on all the Tesla current technology and how to better it in areas Tesla is weak... Rivian is a company built the right way, likely will see a much smoother ramp than Tesla has been able to achieve. I would not be surprised to see Rivain be able to flip the switch to profitability at about 50K units a year, where Tesla still loses at 300K units a year.
Click to expand...

I do not believe that Rivian can make a profit at 50K units a year, but they are doing everything right. They have the old school partners (Ford, Cox), the new technology partners (Amazon), hence can avoid the problems that Tesla had. However, even with that, they are going to find it difficult and complex. It is not a given they will succeed, but they are setting themselves the right way. Tesla still has a head start, but it does not mean both cannot co-exist.
 
interestedinEV said:
I do not believe that Rivian can make a profit at 50K units a year, but they are doing everything right. They have the old school partners (Ford, Cox), the new technology partners (Amazon), hence can avoid the problems that Tesla had. However, even with that, they are going to find it difficult and complex. It is not a given they will succeed, but they are setting themselves the right way. Tesla still has a head start, but it does not mean both cannot co-exist.
Click to expand...

Rivian has structured their company very "light" and what I mean by that is low debt structure, and not spending valuable CAPEX on overcapacity the way Tesla has. Tesla is a company that while a startup, it has been built with higher capacity than they are able to fully utilize. Musk stated Fremont has the capacity to build 700K+ cars a year but Tesla only has a market for around 300K-350K, so where will they sell those extra 350-400K cars? Tesla also has more capacity coming online in Shanghai early next year, meaning the company becomes more bloated. I think Rivian has more humble goals, and is going to build the company slowly, and set to make a profit on lower volumes, (see GM Corvette which is very profitable even in low volumes) With the amazon order, and I expect many other companies will follow as this "last Mile" cargo van segment is huge, and a place an EV really makes sense.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top