‘Tesla Killers’ Are Having A Really Hard Time Killing Tesla

[interestedinEV]

There is a another discussion on the Taycan and few others, where the some posters on this forum are predicting the imminent demise of Tesla. My position has been, that competition sounds fine and dandy, but no one has still shown an ability to take Tesla head on. Yes, on the fringes, some Tesla customers may go elsewhere, but there is no mass exodus at this time.

This article summarizes the situation quite well

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-fail-to-dent-tesla-s-electric-car-dominance

It’s a trope that’s been around roughly as long as Elon Musk has been in the car business: When a new electric vehicle is unveiled, it’s dubbed a potential “Tesla killer.”


But from the flaming-out of Fisker to present day, Tesla has largely dominated the American electric-vehicle market. Musk has even managed to expand the company’s preeminence over the still small segment despite two new battery-powered luxury SUVs arriving in U.S. showrooms the last 10 months: Jaguar’s I-Pace and Audi’s e-tron.


Their starts are the latest indications that legacy automakers aren’t assured instant success when they roll out new plug-in models. Tesla’s Model S and X have largely held its own against the two crossovers that offer shorter range and less plentiful public charging infrastructure. Jaguar and Audi also lack the cool factor Musk has cultivated for the Tesla brand by taking an aggressive approach to autonomy and using over-the-air software updates to add games and entertainment features.

 

[bwilson4web]

I suspect the 'Tesla killers' are just Tesla-screen to minimize sales losses to Tesla.

Bob Wilson

 

[David Green]

There is a another discussion on the Taycan and few others, where the some posters on this forum are predicting the imminent demise of Tesla. My position has been, that competition sounds fine and dandy, but no one has still shown an ability to take Tesla head on. Yes, on the fringes, some Tesla customers may go elsewhere, but there is no mass exodus at this time.

This article summarizes the situation quite well

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-fail-to-dent-tesla-s-electric-car-dominance

It’s a trope that’s been around roughly as long as Elon Musk has been in the car business: When a new electric vehicle is unveiled, it’s dubbed a potential “Tesla killer.”


But from the flaming-out of Fisker to present day, Tesla has largely dominated the American electric-vehicle market. Musk has even managed to expand the company’s preeminence over the still small segment despite two new battery-powered luxury SUVs arriving in U.S. showrooms the last 10 months: Jaguar’s I-Pace and Audi’s e-tron.


Their starts are the latest indications that legacy automakers aren’t assured instant success when they roll out new plug-in models. Tesla’s Model S and X have largely held its own against the two crossovers that offer shorter range and less plentiful public charging infrastructure. Jaguar and Audi also lack the cool factor Musk has cultivated for the Tesla brand by taking an aggressive approach to autonomy and using over-the-air software updates to add games and entertainment features.

I find your analysis interesting,

Lets see last year when the I-Pace hit the market Tesla had been profitable, had record S and X sales, and stock was trading above $350

Since I-Pace and E-Tron hit the market Model S and X sales YoY, QoQ, and MoM are down by nearly 50%, the company has swung back to losses, and the stock is trading in the $220's which is down over 30%, Tesla is being killed... Slowly... Now we have EQC, Taycan, Crozz, ID3, New Chevy, all joining the party this fall/winter, and Model 3 has reached initial saturation, and is fighting for sales, and the big news today, Tesla solar is lighting buildings on fire... I guess Tesla solar is like the Model S... HOTT...

 

[interestedinEV]

I find your analysis interesting,

Now we have EQC, Taycan, Crozz, ID3, New Chevy, all joining the party this fall/winter,
.

Checked on all these cars
EQC: Details only in KMs etc not miles and "registration is not available in your country" (US). So there is no indication when it will available worldwide, let alone the US. I cannot imagine it will be by the end of this year, may by next year this time or end of next year.
Taycan: No delivery dates, you need to register, a dealer will contact you and only they do you have a date.
Crozz: This is from the VW website "With an anticipated top track speed of over 110 mph and DC Fast Charging to 80% battery power in just 30 minutes, the ID. CROZZ Concept, expected to hit dealerships by the end of 2020, will excite all your electrons." (https://www.vw.com/electric-concepts/section/id-crozz/). Even VW is not expecting to deliver it this year.
VW ID3 is not expected to ship until 2020 and they are taking reservations in Europe only (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_ID.3).
New Chevy: Cannot find any details on this, just an older set of articles. There is a recent one (https://carbuzz.com/news/chevy-s-new-ev-looks-great-but-has-a-terrible-name) which talks about a GM introducing a new EV in China. If the new Chevy EV was coming out this year, there would be a lot more buzz about it. Nothing that shows that it will be there this fall or winter.

So I am not sure if you have different information that I am not able to find. Given what I know, it is improbable that any of the above will be available for sale in the US this year or even early next year. I would even hazard a guess that most of these may come available only towards the end of 2020. So I do not see any of these joining the party soon. The Taycan possibly might the first of the lot, but again it is aimed at a very niche segment. So this is why I am skeptical of claims that the bottom is going to drop out of the Tesla market any time soon. The dark horse here is Hyundai, they have some offerings but do not seem to be pushing it either.

 

[David Green]

Checked on all these cars
EQC: Details only in KMs etc not miles and "registration is not available in your country" (US). So there is no indication when it will available worldwide, let alone the US. I cannot imagine it will be by the end of this year, may by next year this time or end of next year.
Taycan: No delivery dates, you need to register, a dealer will contact you and only they do you have a date.
Crozz: This is from the VW website "With an anticipated top track speed of over 110 mph and DC Fast Charging to 80% battery power in just 30 minutes, the ID. CROZZ Concept, expected to hit dealerships by the end of 2020, will excite all your electrons." (https://www.vw.com/electric-concepts/section/id-crozz/). Even VW is not expecting to deliver it this year.
VW ID3 is not expected to ship until 2020 and they are taking reservations in Europe only (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_ID.3).
New Chevy: Cannot find any details on this, just an older set of articles. There is a recent one (https://carbuzz.com/news/chevy-s-new-ev-looks-great-but-has-a-terrible-name) which talks about a GM introducing a new EV in China. If the new Chevy EV was coming out this year, there would be a lot more buzz about it. Nothing that shows that it will be there this fall or winter.

So I am not sure if you have different information that I am not able to find. Given what I know, it is improbable that any of the above will be available for sale in the US this year or even early next year. I would even hazard a guess that most of these may come available only towards the end of 2020. So I do not see any of these joining the party soon. The Taycan possibly might the first of the lot, but again it is aimed at a very niche segment. So this is why I am skeptical of claims that the bottom is going to drop out of the Tesla market any time soon. The dark horse here is Hyundai, they have some offerings but do not seem to be pushing it either.

Well, I do have better sources than you do, my tooling friends have tipped me to the re-tool ongoing at the Chev Bolt plant that is nearing completion, that is certainly not to speed Bolt production, do you think? I expect we will see the new model at an upcoming auto show, and launch later in 2019-early 2020. Gm has been careful about announcements, do not want to steal thunder from the new HD pickups, and 2020 mid engine corvette. Next year will be the new full size SUV's, and I think they will show an Escalade EV concept at Detroit or LA...

I have a Taycan reservation and have been told early 2Q 2020, and considering Audi hit the date they gave me months in advance, I think Porsche is similarly well managed and will hit their dates.

ID3 is not for sale in USA at this time, Americans do not have an appetite for small cars, so Crozz and Roomzz are coming to the USA, one smaller than Y, and one bigger, both currently in validation testing, 1 year out is fair, and the factory revisions are underway now (to be built in the USA)

EQC is in serial production now, deliveries will start in the fall. USA 1-2 months after Europe, similar to E-Tron

 

[bwilson4web]

I'll wait for the EPA metrics and listings . . . with my Model 3 in hand.

Bob Wilson

 

[interestedinEV]

Well, I do have better sources than you do, my tooling friends have tipped me to the re-tool ongoing at the Chev Bolt plant that is nearing completion, that is certainly not to speed Bolt production, do you think? I expect we will see the new model at an upcoming auto show, and launch later in 2019-early 2020. Gm has been careful about announcements, do not want to steal thunder from the new HD pickups, and 2020 mid engine corvette. Next year will be the new full size SUV's, and I think they will show an Escalade EV concept at Detroit or LA...

I have a Taycan reservation and have been told early 2Q 2020, and considering Audi hit the date they gave me months in advance, I think Porsche is similarly well managed and will hit their dates.

ID3 is not for sale in USA at this time, Americans do not have an appetite for small cars, so Crozz and Roomzz are coming to the USA, one smaller than Y, and one bigger, both currently in validation testing, 1 year out is fair, and the factory revisions are underway now (to be built in the USA)

EQC is in serial production now, deliveries will start in the fall. USA 1-2 months after Europe, similar to E-Tron

So here is what I see
EQC: You believe it will be there by end of year in the US, but I see no other independent corroboration of that. I am going to assume it will not be till next year. If they were going to do it by this year, they would be talking reservations. They have not even converted metric to miles on their website.
Taycan: OK, 2Q next year
Crozz: Not expected till end 2020 based on VWs own website. so more than a year.
VW ID3 Not for sale in US
New Chevy: No independent corroboration that a new model will be available by the end of this year.

Pardon me but a statement that "@David Green. says that this will be available by end of this year" is not going to cut it for me. I would like to see some independent validation. Even based on what you are saying, all these are not going to be joining the party by the fall/winter this year. We might see a few early next year but till then Tesla still is not going to have serious competition. And that is where this conversation started.

 

[David Green]

So here is what I see
EQC: You believe it will be there by end of year in the US, but I see no other independent corroboration of that. I am going to assume it will not be till next year. If they were going to do it by this year, they would be talking reservations. They have not even converted metric to miles on their website.
Taycan: OK, 2Q next year
Crozz: Not expected till end 2020 based on VWs own website. so more than a year.
VW ID3 Not for sale in US
New Chevy: No independent corroboration that a new model will be available by the end of this year.

Pardon me but a statement that "@David Green. says that this will be available by end of this year" is not going to cut it for me. I would like to see some independent validation. Even based on what you are saying, all these are not going to be joining the party by the fall/winter this year. We might see a few early next year but till then Tesla still is not going to have serious competition. And that is where this conversation started.

Tesla not having serious competition? Why did they lower S and X price on average 20-30% over the last 12 months? Why have S and X sales volumes fallen by 50% over the last 7 months, even with Tesla having replaced the motors and suspension? All while competition is ramping sales. Why are Model 3 USA sales lower in 2019 July, and August than they were in 2018 July and August (inside EV scorecard), and Tesla inventory lots in the USA near full? Why have Model 3 performance price been lowered from $76K to $55K? Another 25% price reduction...

Bottom line, you can argue talking points with me, Tesla is lowing prices, losing money, and stock is losing value... Thats Dying my friend...

 

[Frank K]

David,

I am confused here. If I look at the sales of EVs last month and only look at the NEW EVs (6 models), then I come up with ~ 1200 newer model EVs sold. This is not even equal to the limping model X sales ... and this is definitely not competition. The stock issues of TSLA have to do with Wall street stupidity and their strategy will fail.

I have no idea why you have to talk up mediocre non-Tesla sales and talk down anything Tesla. Go get a life.


Disclosure: I drive a M3 LR AWD and a Audi A3 etron ... they are both good in their own, no need to trash Audi over Tesla or vice versa

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Since I-Pace and E-Tron hit the market Model S and X sales YoY, QoQ, and MoM are down by nearly 50%, the company has swung back to losses, and the stock is trading in the $220's which is down over 30%...

This is the mark of a TSLA short-seller: He measures the "success" or "failure" of Tesla by the swings in its stock price; and it's a very volatile stock, so swings are pretty frequent.

Contrariwise, a real EV advocate will measure Tesla's success by how many cars it sells per year, and that record is very solid since Tesla started selling the Model S in 2012:

Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)
2018: 245,240 (+142%)

"To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined."

Tesla is being killed... Slowly...

Hey, why don't you re-start the "Tesla Death Watch" blog series, which started in 2008 and ran for something like 41 entries before "The Truth About Cars" website finally stopped embarrassing themselves about all the untruths they were publishing, and killed it off. It was lots of fun reading those laugh-out-loud ludicrous, wildly deluded comments!

Come to think of it, that was a lot like reading your own posts, Mr. Green.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Just for fun, here is the first "Tesla Death Watch" blog post, published in 2008, shortly before Tesla started delivering its Gen I Roadster:

* * * * *

Tesla Death Watch 1: “Tesla hasn’t produced any real cars yet, broke their promise on starting production (again) and don’t plan to build any cars for another year.”
By Frank Williams on May 19, 2008

Those are poster texmin's thoughts on AutoblogGreen's report on the latest update from our friends at Tesla Motors. (BTW Daryl, we seem to have been inadvertently omitted from your email list.) The letter reveals Tesla's revised production schedule (surprise!): a 600-car 2008 model run by April 2009, followed by the 2009 models. Reader Chris H isn't impressed. "Three cars in 9 weeks…. Three weeks to build one car? At this rate it will take over five years just to get through the Founders Series and the Signature 100." In other news, Tesla's testing a new electronics module in preparation for the yet-to-see-daylight one-speed gearbox; both will be a "running production change." The standard 3 year/36k mile warranty can now be extended to 4 years/50k miles– at a price (the 2008 Roadster Club members get free extended coverage). Tesla Roadster owners living more than 100 miles from a service center no longer have to pay $8k up front to cover service transportation. They just pay for as few (or as many) trips as needed. By this time next year, Tesla plans on having stores in L.A. (done), Menlo Park New Jersey, New York, Chicago, Miami and Seattle. And finally, if you want a 2009 Roadster, the base price has risen from $98k to $109. To which leroy replied, "Save yourself $90,000 and just buy a used Lotus Elise. 90 grand will buy a hell of a lot of gasoline."

​

 

[bwilson4web]

I have no idea why you have to talk up mediocre non-Tesla sales and talk down anything Tesla.

Near as I can tell, he is obsessed with hating Elon Musk. But he has yet to reveal a root cause.

My speculation is Musk comes from Silicon Valley and Seattle based Microsoft hates it for Apple. It could be SpaceX taking business from Boeing, another Seattle based company. Then too Musk is an immigrant who out performed Green. Maybe Musk ran over his favorite dog.

Regardless of cause (or fee,) it makes his posts foolish and easy to reply with facts and data.

Bob Wilson

 

[marshall]

Near as I can tell, he is obsessed with hating Elon Musk. But he has yet to reveal a root cause.

My speculation is Musk comes from Silicon Valley and Seattle based Microsoft hates it for Apple. It could be SpaceX taking business from Boeing, another Seattle based company. Then too Musk is an immigrant who out performed Green. Maybe Musk ran over his favorite dog.

Regardless of cause (or fee,) it makes his posts foolish and easy to reply with facts and data.

Bob Wilson

Boeing's headquarters is located in Chicago.

 

[bwilson4web]

Boeing's headquarters is located in Chicago.

Of course they are and the 737 is built where?

Bob Wilson

 

[David Green]

David,

I am confused here. If I look at the sales of EVs last month and only look at the NEW EVs (6 models), then I come up with ~ 1200 newer model EVs sold. This is not even equal to the limping model X sales ... and this is definitely not competition. The stock issues of TSLA have to do with Wall street stupidity and their strategy will fail.

I have no idea why you have to talk up mediocre non-Tesla sales and talk down anything Tesla. Go get a life.


Disclosure: I drive a M3 LR AWD and a Audi A3 etron ... they are both good in their own, no need to trash Audi over Tesla or vice versa

Nothing to be confused about, Tesla is failing, losing money every year, shareholder value dropping, and seeing pressure on sales forcing price reductions, that is failing... Tesla had so many active lawsuits, the process servers have to line up at Elon's door to serve paperwork about the next lawsuit where Tesla's solar panels are burning down Walmart stores. I see Nextmove replied to Elon denying they cancelled their Model 3 orders... Tesla is run by clowns... Another great example, our close family friend with a 2017 S had a flat tire last week, Tesla charged her $75 to fix the tire, and then lost her tire and wheel before she could come to pick it up, days went by, and now they think they found it, and the tire could not be repaired, she needs a new tire... Only trouble she took a picture of the nail in her tire, and the picture Tesla sent her had a screw in the tire (not a nail). Like I said, not well organized. Luckily they loaned her a tire so her car is not broke down waiting . I cannot imagine my Audi dealer doing anything like that.

Tesla stock issues are wall street stupidity? how did you come up with that? You mean Tesla fans like Ross Gerber, and ARKK selling is stupidity? as both have been unloading Tesla in recent Months.

 

[David Green]

Near as I can tell, he is obsessed with hating Elon Musk. But he has yet to reveal a root cause.

My speculation is Musk comes from Silicon Valley and Seattle based Microsoft hates it for Apple. It could be SpaceX taking business from Boeing, another Seattle based company. Then too Musk is an immigrant who out performed Green. Maybe Musk ran over his favorite dog.

Regardless of cause (or fee,) it makes his posts foolish and easy to reply with facts and data.

Bob Wilson

Haha, Come on Bob, I have stated on here a few times my personal reason to dislike Musk. (Musk lies too much) And BTW, Apple is no threat to MSFT, have you been watching the market cap recently for those 2 companies? MSFT near an all time high, and most valuable company, and APPL, well they have struggled the last year, need more products. I-Phone cannot carry the company forever. I actually prefer Apple products to MSFT, but I like MSFT business better, and have made up to 300X on my MSFT investments.

 

[David Green]

Of course they are and the 737 is built where?

Bob Wilson

737 are built in Renton, and 747, 767, 777,787 are built in Everett (Largest building in the world by volume, and my company did excavation and utility work for the Composite Wing Center which is the 6th largest building in the world by volume located right behind the Everett Factory). Oh, Even the Composite Wing Center is larger than Elon's GF1 which he has claimed numerous times is the largest, biggest, whatever... Its Wimpy Wimpy Wimpy, and still not done even after nearly 6 years of construction (what happened to the solar and wind generation in the rendering Elon showed investors when he was trying to raise money?).. BTW, Composite wing Center was built and fully operational in 2 years, and that includes time demolishing the old flattops on the site (office buildings). Roads built, Landscaping done, a new freeway interchange built, parking lots... Everything! Tesla does not even own a Carbon Neutral plant like the one my E-Tron was built in, but people say Elon wants to save the world? I think he could start by cleaning up his own operations, maybe?

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Since "David Green" has decided to carpet-bomb this thread with his anti-Tesla pravduh rants, I'll continue providing amusement for the rest of us with another example of the "Tesla Death Watch" series. Enjoy!

* * * * *

Tesla Death Watch 8: “This company is not out to solve a sports car shortage in the world”
By Robert Farago on July 2, 2008

Which is just as well, really. By it's own (highly suspicious) count, Tesla has delivered less than five cars to paying customers since it began production on March 17th (of this year). Meanwhile and in any case, Tesla Chairman Elon Musk has now informed the Palo Alto Daily News that his car company will launch a $30k EV by 2012. For those of you keeping score, this as-yet-unnamed mid-market motor will arrive [in theory only] after Tesla's $60k EV– or part-EV– Whitestar luxury sedan. Sorry; "model S." And in large numbers, apparently. "The company hopes a new Bay Area plant will allow it to start production of 10,000 "Model S" sedans per year and ramp up to 20,000. It has no hard estimate yet for the $30,000 vehicle, but spokeswoman Colette Niazmand said she would anticipate 'tens of thousands' produced annually." OK, hang on a mo. I know talk is cheap and newspapers are entirely gullible when it comes anything green. But it should be clear to any observer with the slightest concept of automotive development lead times that Tesla is in the business of BS, not car construction. Given Musk's ability to raise cash and spout bluster, I realize this Death Watch series is headed for double-digits. But anyone who thinks Tesla is the future needs to read-up on Vector Motors. Or Bricklin. Or Tucker. Or AC Cobra. That's all I'm saying. For now. Obviously.​

* * * * *

Hmmm... In reality, it took Tesla a whole 5-1/2 years after this article was published to ramp up to making and selling more than 20,000 cars per year. Another 4 years after that, Tesla was making over 100,000 per year.

​

 

[bwilson4web]

I have stated on here a few times my personal reason to dislike Musk. (Musk lies too much)

The difference is a 'lie' means a deliberate attempt to mislead versus 'thinking out loud.' Musk is a modern day Edison who said:

• I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.
  
• Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration.
• The first requisite for success is the ability to apply your physical and mental energies to one problem incessantly without growing weary.
• To have a great idea, have a lot of them.
• Results! Why, man, I have gotten a lot of results. I know several thousand things that won't work.

Calling Musk failures a lie is what I call 'paying tuition in the school of hard knocks.' Musk keeps trying and insists on similar commitments from his employees. It is a pattern I'm used to seeing in super productive people. People I've always enjoyed working with. Not everyone has a similar commitment to that level of work.

What remains a mystery is why so much energy is wasted on attacking Musk instead of curiosity about how the things in our hands actually work. This wasted effort on Musk not only here but other public critics borders on an obsession.

Bob Wilson

 

[David Green]

The difference is a 'lie' means a deliberate attempt to mislead versus 'thinking out loud.' Musk is a modern day Edison who said:

• I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.
  
• Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration.
• The first requisite for success is the ability to apply your physical and mental energies to one problem incessantly without growing weary.
• To have a great idea, have a lot of them.
• Results! Why, man, I have gotten a lot of results. I know several thousand things that won't work.

Calling Musk failures a lie is what I call 'paying tuition in the school of hard knocks.' Musk keeps trying and insists on similar commitments from his employees. It is a pattern I'm used to seeing in super productive people. People I've always enjoyed working with. Not everyone has a similar commitment to that level of work.

What remains a mystery is why so much energy is wasted on attacking Musk instead of curiosity about how the things in our hands actually work. This wasted effort on Musk not only here but other public critics borders on an obsession.

Bob Wilson

Musk lies constantly... Funding Secured at $75B valuation, and now a year later TSLA is trading at half that, and Musk and TSLA investors had to pay a $40M fine? Thats lying Bob... Plain and simple

Musk a genius? prove it? People from PayPal fired him and said he is an idiot. Ambitious yes, I will give you that, but he is also hypocritical in most everything he says / does. Claims to be wanting to save the world, but yet runs one of the dirtiest "green" operations on the planet. Where are the carbon neutral plants? Audi built E-Tron from Day 1 in a Carbon neutral plant, why not Tesla? Solar Superchargers Elon promised? OK there is 3 out of 1300, haha! Why does he fly a Gulfstream G650 to commute to work, and go pick up his girlfriend on weekends? You ever seen him at a supercharger for anything other than publicity?

Bob, if you like to chase rainbows and unicorns that is fine (all the while losing money), but I call Musk what he is, a hypocritical liar. He is also a bit of a jerk as most people who work with him say over and over.

As for energy, why do you waste so much energy defending Musk / Tesla? You and the other cult followers that just blindly defend failure after failure and try to normalize the train wreck that is Tesla? There is a reason many major investors in TSLA have bailed, people with half a brain can see this company is poorly managed and headed for trouble. 2 years now after Model 3 started production and there are still so many quality problems that rental car companies are canceling orders, Bob, that is not normal...