Why did Tesla stop reporting Autopilot crashes?

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by R P, Dec 27, 2022.

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  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    There were a few omissions from the article:

    Around the same time, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the nation’s top auto safety regulator, began demanding crash reports from automakers that sell so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot. It began releasing those numbers in June. And those numbers don’t look good for Autopilot.

    Tesla won’t say why it stopped reporting its safety statistics, which measure crash rates per miles driven.

    The NHTSA number is just a raw count of accidents and does not include the odometer miles of each vehicle. In contrast, the Tesla accidents per mile included the NHTSA miles per accident which were an order of magnitude worse. The buried lead later in the article:

    Tesla has far more vehicles equipped with driver-assist systems than the competition — an estimated 1 million, Ogan said, about 10 times as many as Ford. All else equal, that would imply Tesla ought to have a NHTSA-reported crash total of 70 since last summer to be comparable with Ford’s rate. Instead, Tesla reported 516 crashes.

    That should be "50 times." The article should have given us the numbers at the beginning and end of the interval. This practice is called lying by omission.

    For back of the envelop, here are my sources:
    https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-inc-us-sales-figures/
    • 1,479,145 - Tesla sales of Oct 2022
    Source:
    https://getjerry.com/questions/how-many-electric-cars-has-ford-sold
    • "(Ford rjw) has already sold almost 30,000 electric vehicles. '
    Back of the envelope:
    • 49x ~= 1,479,145 / 30,000
    So we go further into the LA Times article:

    The (raw count rjw)Tesla Autopilot crash numbers are far higher than those of similar driver-assistance systems from General Motors and Ford. Tesla has reported 516 crashes from July 2021 through November 2022, while Ford reported seven and GM two.

    The same problem is this is a raw count, not a count per mile.

    If you choose to believe this article, fine by me. I have both AutoPilot and Full Self Driving. AutoPilot paid for itself two months after getting our Tesla when it kept the car in lane and dynamic cruise control safe. Toyota's TSS-P would have driven us into the ditch.

    BTW, here is the NHTSA report:
    https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/initial-data-release-advanced-vehicle-technologies

    https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2022-06/ADAS-L2-SGO-Report-June-2022.pdf

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2022
    marshall likes this.
  3. marshall

    marshall Well-Known Member

    RP you should know better than that!!!! None of the news and entertainment media tell you the whole story. If they did, then folks would be less outraged and better informed. Sad, but that's the way news and entertainment media is sold. On top of that, very little investigating reporting is being done. Mostly they just regurgitate some crappy reporting someone else did.

    There are multiple reasons why the Tesla stock is in a tailspin. The stock is overpriced, price is mostly based on Elon's salesmanship ; production capability is now higher then sales can support at the current car prices, especially for the Model Y; Elon's big mouth isn't helping the Tesla brand; FSD 11 was still not widely released the last time I checked; the economy appears to be going into a recession; high interest rates for car loans; short selling; and the competition, although not much of a threat as of yet.

    I'm not counting Tesla out. All it takes is for one of the large refiners to go down and the price of gas goes to $5 or more a gallon.

    If the stock drops to $80 a share, that may be a buy-in opportunity.
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2022
  4. Don't really disagree with you. Lots of piling on happening. I have very little faith and trust in the media. I watched a lot of CNBC the last couple days, and wow, how the former Tesla hypesters have all now turned on Tesla, and they can't hide their venom. I guess that's what losing a lot of money does to you, have to blame someone other than yourself.

    Having said that, there are some facts and reality about Tesla that you can't ignore if you look through and past the opinions and noise. Tesla will have to adapt, and I am sure Elon Musk knows that.

    BTW, my son's M3 got bricked a few days ago (Xmas day actually), and is in the Tesla service centre now. He is long out of warranty (almost 200K kms now), and was told yesterday he needs a new battery pack. Preliminary cost estimate is $20K+ CAD. Needless to say not a happy holiday time for him (and us) at this time. Will take a while longer to determine cause and outcome.
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    My sympathy to your son:

    my son's M3 got bricked a few days ago (Xmas day actually),

    A Lennox furnace, airflow sensor failed on Friday before Christmas. I’ve been manually running the furnace 4-5 times each day. Good news, house, dogs, and water pipes safe. Bad news I will miss seeing my brothers over the holidays.

    What model and year Tesla? I’m at 89,000 mi on our 2019 Model 3 Std Rng Plus.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  7. It's a 2018 LR RWD, one of the very first produced. Tesla says that the battery was damaged, so my son called ICBC (our public insurance company) to make a claim. But with the holidays and recent snow storm we had here, they are backed up and can't send out an adjuster/estimator to examine it and take pics. They won't accept pics from my son, or from Tesla (who actually refuses to do that anyway). So now he has to wait. Meanwhile Tesla wants him to tow the car out of their lot (no room there) to an ICBC claim centre where they would then look at it in due time.

    A little more background: Last March my son made a long trip all the way down to Miami (from Vancouver). On the way, in Tennessee, I think, he ran over a metal road divider (those things that are pressed into the pavement in the middle of the road) that had come loose from the pavement and hit the underside of the car. He stopped to examine the underside, and did find that the plastic battery guard was damaged, but couldn't see damage to the battery case itself. So he thought he was OK and carried on.

    Never had any issues until this week. His 12V battery was dying so he took it to the service centre to be replaced. While there they carried out some additional diagnostics and determined the large battery pack was damaged. They said there was water leakage and it was no longer safe to drive. I am not sure how they actually determined that. My son had never had any error codes and everything about the battery, charging, range, etc had been normal.

    So that is why he went to the insurance company to try and get them to pay for it. But they want proof or evidence that damage was caused by hitting an object on the road. That may be hard to do, esp if Tesla is not cooperating. My son is not very happy with how they have been treating him. You'd think they would have a little more empathy and willingness to help at their end when a customer is facing a $20K+ repair bill.
     
  8. Company in Oliver B.C. does Tesla battery pack repairs:
    Home - Fix My Tesla
    just in case ICBC falls short
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2022
    R P likes this.
  9. Thanks, I will pass that on to him.
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I am well aware of that battery cover as mine is already failing due to my fault three years ago. On an August trip to Kansas, I had to use duct tape and tie-wraps to keep it from vibrating and separating on the highway.
    So how did he drive to the service center?
    If I drove the car there, after replacing the 12 V, I would drive off. Sometimes 'service technicians' are not deep thinkers. For example, six weeks ago, the furnace failed for about 6 hours and a technician came out. He did not read the stored code and blamed another part for the failure. <GERRRRR!>

    BTW, replacing the 12 V battery in a Tesla has an additional step that requires disabling the traction battery. Otherwise the DC-to-DC converter could lead to a sparking experience. Once the safety plug is removed, the rest is just the tedious access to the battery and replacement with a suitable one.
    I do NOT have a favorable opinion of insurance companies.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2022
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  12. They made a stop on their way to our place for Xmas dinner, when a message came up car may not restart and needs service. And sure enough it did not. So I picked them up. After a bit of googling it sounded like a dying 12V. We figured that sitting for an hour or so, the 12V might charge up a bit. So I took my son back to see if it would start up. And it did! We then headed for the nearest Tesla service centre which fortunately was just a few kms away. He shut off the heater and lights trying to preserve energy. A couple blocks away from the destination, messages came on the screen again, this time a little more onerous saying car is about to shut down and look for a place to park. He did make it to the service centre, of course being a holiday everything is shut down and gates closed. So he just parked it on the street in front. Later at home he checked it remotely, and it was dead, no contact.

    Drove down the next day, and couldn't even open doors. Anyway the next day after the holiday closure, the service centre looked at it and gave him the bad news. They removed the pack and stored it in another building due to "fire hazard". So he could not drive off with it if he wanted. And that is where it is now.
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Owch!

    Pulling the pack is pretty severe. Did they ask first or just rip it out?

    If possible, he should get some photos.

    GOOD LUCK!

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. No, just ripped it out, said it was a fire hazard. And they refused to take any photos. Have to wait for the insurance adjuster to do that.
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    SOB! Who are these *ssholes? Where?

    A mobile tech came out to replace my 12 V battery. Now I don't want them to come close to my Model 3. I'll order the part and replace it myself.

    Bob Wilson
     

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