The fossil fuel industry has been bankrupt for a long time- peak oil long gone

Discussion in 'Energy' started by 101101, Jun 3, 2019.

  1. 101101

    101101 Active Member

    Remember the name of every press person who is asserting the EV or Tesla demand problem because its proof they are dishonest or negligent or both and then remember that sponsored media outlets lie, and censor and spin for money- which is why we have to get rid of sponsored (bought and paid for) filter media, and get conflict of interest free sources of information to support the public interest. Got sponsored media then you have sponsored politicians and that is the source of all the capture in the US by multinationals and foreign governments- you do bribery based media and you get bribery based government and bribery based rigged markets, just look at the US financial markets.

    So again the Tesla Model 3 is a stunning utter complete smashing success without Tesla bribing the sponsored media toll road- part of why the sponsored media hates Tesla so much is the ICE groups that do intense sponsoring (bribing) of the sponsored media are getting no-where for it against Tesla but they are loading the short burn of the millennium over it. Understand that, ICE pays tons to sponsored media and gets now where for it aside from loading the short burn and that undermines the whole sponsorship scam, there is no return on the conspiracy when it is up against integrity and real value and solid tech and a firm that wants to compete and not just collude.

    You can tell what a desperate state the fossil fuel industry is in behind the scenes because there now there are calls from 'Seeking Alpha' to ban EVs in favor of freedom gas and freedom cars, because increasingly irrelevant to EV batteries cobalt is supposedly Chinese. There is also whining about freedom fries France taking over FCV- but how many times has FCV gone bankrupt or been acquired and good riddance- but it is the end of mopar etc. And now there is talk about Ford and GM merging as I've suggested- this will happen as these two companies have the fossil fuel supply chain down into their DNA. These two structurally bankrupt subsidy dependent firms shouldn't be allowed to continue unless they are fully acquired by their blue collar employees. Remember GM's last brilliant move, where it bought up a bunch of its own stock and then announced huge layoffs only to have Trump threaten to cancel their hidden subsidies- yep "hidden subsidies" for an ICE company- no surprise there at all. They are still the same companies that fought things like seat belts and air bags. Remember when GM went from having 25 billion in cash to being bankrupt overnight and then it blamed its union and its already much lower paid employees for not being willing be paid a lot less- relative to say the German firms? Remember how the same GM later was able to write off a chunk of its government bail out loan but then not long after was able to do huge stock buy backs and lay off employees?

    But you have the fossil fuel industry with permanent ultra low thermodynamic efficiency and resultant ultra low sub threshold aggregate economic efficiency across its entire supply chain, part of why its always been part of 1/3 of the tax haul that is pure demand creation transfer payment welfare case but where essentially over the long long term it has had ultimately ever worsening every catabolizing unworkable economics hollowing everything out with austerity and driving the debt maximization that has Americans straddled with 68 trillion in public and private debt weighing down on each wager earner with the pervasive pressure even at the zero rate of $1900 a month from age 18 or possibly from age 0. That is leveraging all the time and energy out of people's lives and that is about pure control and nothing else- not a penny of that debt is necessary because there are other ways.

    Look at a Liberty mutual. That incredibly firm apparently took its insurance pool and bought the shares of Enron and Aliso Viejo gas disaster poster child PG&E but also insured PG&E and then got hit with PG&E's 2nd bankruptcy in so many years and has now raised its home insurance rates on its rate payers by 40% in a single year to try to socialize the losses- this happens all the time be it life, insurance or mortgages or pensions or auto insurance it a securitization scam. This is why we pay 2x what anyone else does for health care where as Chomsky has said if we had single payer like everyone else we wouldn't even have federal deficit and of course wouldn't need secret energy policy or criminal budget sequestration (secret budgeting) to hide the fossil fuel socializing losses scams or the stupid Trump Tariffs (can't compete with permanently lower cost of goods greener economies and raising defensive tarrifs) and we wouldn't be trying to take Iran and Venzuela's oil off line to sell people a resource they don't need. You know a lot of the conflict in the supposed China trade war is the US trying to sell China fossil fuels is simply doesn't need and won't ever need again. The most important than we can do is make these Southern Anti Bellum fossil fuel brahams eat their just deserved economic losses- this is what justice demands. If this were 1950 it would be different but this 70 years later and 70 years of this ill-gotten can't be overlooked.

    Ask yourself how it is that oil tankers now make half their transoceanic voyages full of sea water where as supposedly not long ago they were full both ways- source was I think Oil Price- not exactly an anti fossil fuel rag. Ask how that is possible with the massive number of global coal plant closures. Hmm, coal and oil both down at the same time, difference must be made up by shale? Wrong!!! Fossil fuels simply aren't competitive at any latitude and haven't been for a long time, the levellized price estimates have been pure bs- people have been quietly ditching fossil fuels the globe over at a massive rate, not other explanation that wouldn't entail obvious economic collapse makes sense. Shale not long ago was driving mid west banks to the point of bankruptcy over derivatives insuring stranded asset natural gas bad debts, same for Deutsche Bank (note the supposed tie to the current white house) with the same idiotic problem- its not better now- shale isn't any more viable or any cheaper or more competitive- there is no place on the globe that its competitive and that even with apparent massive drops in coal and oil demand. How is that possible. Even 4 years ago state of the art Aeon brand new natural gas plants couldn't compete in snowy Germany against duck curve non battery backed solar, it was so bad that brand new gas plants peaker or otherwise could only run a couple days a month and had to be shuttered and the German companies left shale. In one recent year all the natural gas plants in Texas were scrapped because they couldn't compete utility scale solar- source was CEO of 8 Minute Energy. Shale and the rest of fossil fuels isn't competitive anywhere and never will be again- its -f-ing over and the lie can't be covered any longer- MIT researchers (surprising from petrol university- unless I have the source wrong) just did a study that showed that cluing in the public to the reality of fossil fuel economics and its dead end tech would solve climate change faster than anything else . Energy is becoming essentially free, energy rent seeking is over. Ask why fat hostage taking investors in CA think they can get 10% government guaranteed returns in stupid investments in gas plants and fracking for 18 cents a kwh retail when rural coops provide coal power at cost for 6 cents a kwh. Presumably this is part of why PG&E suddenly has an Enron sized $40 billion missing supposedly due to wild fires- and it is pushing tripe about needing to shut off power during the day like the old rolling black outs under enron- why there is a power glut from solar. Same reason SCE despite the solar glut is claiming it failed to purchase a billion dollars and needs it from its rate payers despite solar glut.

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  2. 101101

    101101 Active Member

    Why would these non-contributing rent seekers be entitled to anything but claw back? Ask yourself why Saudi Arabia put all its oil assets up for permanent sale trying to auction it all off a couple years back. It it was a money making asset why would they be trying to dump it while cutting their stipend? Ask why Rockefellers have been divesting Exxon- one of them told us, she said Exxon would become public enemy #1- that's not just about lying over CO2 that has to be about what happens when the public discovers what an austerity driver and driver of bailout wars fossil fuels have been. Canada's form defense minster Paul Hellyer said we would have to give fossil fuel interest amnesty to move forward to respond in time to climate change. Now Gates and Buffet are calling for complete exoneration of fossil fuel actors on externalities, this is a measure of the social utility of these two billionaires, this is true colors speaking and it means their charity claims are just marketing. Look what Buffet's NRG did in Nevada with net metering, this is no friend of the environment despite the BYD investment, and look at his constant criticism of Musk for getting in to the insurance industry. Musk won't do the typical insurance margins he will run it at cost and Buffet presumably doesn't want that because auto insurance is one of the ways we socialize fossil fuel losses and having insurance at cost undermines that with even one important example being enough to upset the apple cart on his other bets like Goldman which are leveraged to the limit on fossil fuels derivatives and both issuing bad debt on stranded fossil fuel assets and selling the insurance on that bad debt covering stranded fossil fuel assets.

    The truth presumably is that 75% of the book values of fossil fuel companies are in permanently stranded assets making these companies book value bankrupt. Presumably this is why climate change advocates say that this amount has to stay in the ground- it will stay in the ground due to permanent economic stranding- because its facing a competitor with economics a lot better than perfected hot fusion. So these fossil fuel companies are pure garbage with zero value outside the 10% of petroleum volume materials/minerals business and they are still being soclialized along by horrid unnecessary subsidies and taking pension and insurance funds hostage and inflating the costs of the underlying products to socialize the endless losses. I imagine these firms will be quickly cut down to 10% of book values the way these predatory banks will be cut down to their 5% reserves. We should nationalize these fossil fuel entities and zero out the profit as we transition the workers and dismantle the plants and pipelines. Ask yourself why Tillerson wanted to straddle social security with fossil fuels taking people dependent on social security hostage for retirement with a carbon tax to fund SS- because they are desperate to keep this garbage afloat- you can't be allowed to retire unless they can continue to energy rent seek on you with their 18th century sunk cost investments. Ask you self why General Kelly under Trump said the US should have compromised with the South, the only point of compromise was on Jefferson Davis's right to exploit or treat people like property or on slavery- he said this could have prevented the civil war- presumably he said this because he knows fossil fuels and the and the debt maximization garbage its backed up by and its straddling every US wage earner with about $1900 a month in debt pressure just at the 0 rate and all for control is the new civil rights, fossil fuels are the new civil rights the same sort of idiocy that backed up the anti-bellum south. The suicidal fossil fuel industry arguments in favor of continued fossil fuel use are just as odious and specious and coming from the same place and the same culture as the South's racial arguments attempting to justify slavery.



    But when we say that fossil fuels are thermodynamically doomed its important to point to part of why. In the 1950s we had the law against tech in the US that would cause economic disruption and it aimed at suppressing patenting and even gagging innovation that would cause economic disruption. There are said to be 5500 or so inventions or innovations that have been suppressed under this law. It seems likely that the concern triggered over fission and in particular a cheaper more economic thorium fission type reactor that would also not yield the weapons risk. Regardless we can see that the early steam engines only converted .7 lbs of coal to work out of every 100lbs the rest just went up in pollution and heat pollution. Things improved for a while but at the combustion end for a modern engine it is still about 2/3rds waste of fuel to heat and pollution. The issue isn't so much a supply limit, it seems the source of petroleum is a biogenic and related to radio decay, but accessible or useful supply must still be explored for and then often fought for and then defended and extracted and shipped and then stored and then shipped to be refined and then stored and then shipped and stored again so that it can then be retailed and combusted in complicated machines that are failure prone and require high maintenance and in the process the streets are torn up and the food, water and air are polluted with resultant health consequences and snow pack is lost and climate displacement happens driving more war and the supply in uncertain driving speculation and boom bust cycles.

    By comparison battery backed solar is made of solid state materials where the materials are more abundant than lead and are recyclable and where the electrons come to you with rock solid reliability (perfect hot fusion reactor in the sky) and are perfectly distributed and are free and where the actually supply is many orders of magnitude greater than petroleum and where even a county sized chunk of Nevada gets enough energy to power the entire earth across all forms of energy and where no heat pollution is added and where the aggregate economic efficiency is something like 90% and the prices will drop to about 1/1000 of a kwh or less where there is a floor on retail fossil fuels of about 13 cents a kwh. And where the cost curves are completely flat decades out and where roof top solar battery backed solar and micro grids can replace the entire grid and where wind and can supplement but hydro isn't necessary anymore and legacy nuclear doesn't hurt. And where micro-grid solar hardens against disaster and where solar is the perfect complement for desalination. The roof on average home at most latitudes is completely adequate to meet all household energy needs including electric cars assuming batteries. Battery energy density good enough for aviation now. It will replace ocean transport and train transport along with trucks very soon and its the only proper complement for autonomous.
    Fossil fuels could never compete with hot fusion and battery backed solar is already better because it is generally not adding extra heat pollution and has much better cost curves.



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    So lets underline the case for why the fossil fuel advocates are about the greatest fools in the history of the world. 1. They made incredibly stupid investment choices, even the bridge fuel nonsense was stupid, US was always behind OPEC, and by the time there were bridge fuels they were horrid choices. They did it out of greed not common sense or reason. They also had to bear risk and not be able to socialize in a rent seeking fashion- it was not a matter of energy independence or playing a geo-strategic game, it was always rent seeking so the reasons were never good, they were corrupt. 2.
    the cost of goods is so much lower with green economies that fossil fuel based economies cannot compete. A true green economy will spend less than 1% on energy where a fossil fuel economy will have 15% waste that poisons the rest of the economy and the cost of goods disdvantage may be 30% with all cumulative effects added in. And there is China an up and coming economy that isn't built out, that is actually the largest economy in the world already and it is just getting started and its fully committed to green and it gains nothing and will not reverse on fossil fuels and fossil fuel corruption. The US staying on fossil fuels will be like being pre-industrial against an industrial economy. There is no way the people who were stupid enough to keep investing in fossil fuel and its bailout wars and the unnecessary wars that were there to make it look like it was still relevant are going to recoup sunk cost and people aren't going for bail-ins or more bailouts or more fossil fuel austerity and its becoming impossible to lie about it and lie about stuff like 911 that came out of its stupidity.
     

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