Tesla will crush Big 2.5 on Pick Ups- cheats they used on Toyota won't work

Discussion in 'General' started by 101101, Sep 19, 2018.

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  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    B.I. recently trying to foist that Toyota's pick up plight in the US would mean rejection of a Tesla pick up because bubbas prefer red neck white people associated firms. Just like the NY Times trying to assert shorts (not even real investors) have a case and have made it. Utter unadulterated pure nonsense.

    Tesla will crush Big 3 Pick Ups and their silly hybridization efforts- and this Toyota can't so Tesla can't stuff is nonsense- the Big 3 are incredibly weak on pick-ups.

    1. Big 3 got a 25% tariff on Japanese trucks and the big 3 or 2.5 cannibalized their own car sales to subsidize the value on trucks further so they could rip citizens and society off on gas with dumb backwards foot print arguments to force more petro pay outs- this is as dumb as cheap gas (greater amounts to greater rip off subsidies or theft from the public) make petrol less helpless or pathetic- its just straight up not competitive- put some cells on your roof and get some power walls and electric cars and you eliminate the fuel bill.

    2. Tesla is more American than the big 2.5 and their bankrupt practices, more 'American' than Toyota so the racism argument won't hold water. Chrysler as a 2x bankrupt loser and 2x acquired player is no where to be found as an American firm. GM shouldn't have been bailed out when its a total try-to-fail convincingly-on-EVs pretender that tried to claim the abuse it was foisting on its blue collar workers was luxurious and caused it to fail instead of its being run by rent seeking fools for fool non contributing rent seekers. Ford is running from cars ceasing to make them all together because its afraid of Tesla. Ford has no EV strategy and thinks it can hide behind truck tariffs, tariffs that won't protect it from the more American Tesla. Ford is abandoned muscle cars and is turning the Mustang into a CUV- think the bubbas will respect that?

    3. A Tesla truck will pull a chain of F150s, take one from each of the 13 generations of F150 in a tug of war up a hill backwards- the roadster could do that if provided sufficient traction. End of story for the bubbas to the point of instant conversion. Bubbas will know this ahead of time because of what Tesla does to the Semi industry. They will start to see fully loaded trailers blasting past them on the highways while driving their obsolete ICE rigs. Bubbas will start to understand why tanks, trains and dump trucks have long been electric drive. Plus Tesla will do something that shows rocket maker roots that makes the Big three junk look weak.

    Ford has one thing in its future, bankruptcy and Chinese acquisition. Right now Ford is paying a 6.54% dividend to rent seekers even as it faces extinction because this bribery is only way it can keep its structurally bankrupt stock out the penny stock range.

    Trump energy policy looks simple to understand as well. Natural gas because its pathetic technically and might have been able to compete 60 years ago but today is just a stranded asset bog with a derivatives time bmb propping it up- a real Ponzi- because of this the Trump admin just threw a bunch more good public money after idiot NG rent seeking money buying more of the backward rent seeking NG crap to kick the can down the road on the derivatives next NG caused derivatives implosion. But the next admin is just going to isolate that sht and pop that bubble- the Kochs and their ilk will be made to eat it. Americans will learn the truth soon enough on this probably resulting in the fleeing of the 'energy' billionaires- their Yukos moment is coming. Relative to no fuel bill solar plants NG is like a credit card you can't pay off with rates that go up with inflation- it is actually much worse than that. Trying to take the methane restrictions off- how stupid could you get- think the SC will save that BS from the next admin- that's coming down even if its necessary to pack the court into non-existence. Never bet on stupid, Tesla shorts even with the obvious game they are playing appear to be some of the stupidest people on Earth. Like the rent seeker's version of a Luddite. Moron supply side luddites. There isn't even any guarantee Trump or Pence or the GOP or even the appointees or the bad laws won't all be rolled back mid term- most don't seem to realize there is an overt mechanism in the Constitution for that and precedent around the world with events that trigger early general elections. Trump is saying he is a victim of the government- not a strong place to be.

    Fossil Fuel is going to have its money and power stripped from it sooner rather than latter because its run by a bunch of clueless entitled rent seekers making threats on deeds that technology thankfully revoked. They don't reinvest in the obvious future instead they double and triple down on stupid, seems they can't cut and run from stupid. But we can cut the cord at the source which is what Tesla is doing
     
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  3. gooki

    gooki Active Member

    Nice rant.
     
  4. DaleL

    DaleL Active Member

    In 2017, 2,800,000 new midsize and large pickup trucks were sold. Total new US vehicle sales were 17.25 million in 2017. In 2017, Tesla delivered 101,312 vehicles. In 2017, Tesla had a net loss of 2,240,000,000 dollars. Tesla has not had a profitable quarter in 2018. Ford reported a net profit of 7,600,000,000 dollars for 2017.

    My local Ford dealership has 59 F-150 trucks in stock at prices from $27,000 and up. Tesla's least expensive production vehicle is priced at $50,000 with delivery. Buyers have to wait months to get one. The $36,000 Tesla does not exist. Tesla's pickup truck does not exist; it is vaporware.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    We agree. Did you look at what Tesla spent that extra money on?
    • Capital expense of adding production equipment at the Fremont and Gigafactory.
    • Training expense of new staff to operate the production equipment. It is the nature of an assembly line that one bottleneck limits the productivity of every employee in the assembly line.
    It is worse than that because most of the Tesla sold in 2017 were over $100,000. So we can estimate the gross revenue:
    • 101,312 * $100,000 ~= 10,131,200,000 (estimated gross revenue)
    I wonder if we can check this number against some factual reporting ... say Security Exchange Filings?
    Source: http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-k/0001564590-18-002956
    Code:
    Year Ended December 31            2017           2016  
    Total revenues         $11,758,751,000 $7,000,132,000
    Gross profit            $2,222,487,000 $1,599,257,000
    

    I like your numbers as they appear consistent with the annual report for 2017. So now we can calculate gross margin, 18% ~= $2,222,487 / $11,757,751,000.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018
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  6. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Well-Known Member

    Here is the reality. There is not enough production capacity and more importantly not enough demand for EV's to eliminate the need for ICE vehicles. There is not enough demand as there are inherent limitations today with EV's. Many people, even today want to be able to go the gas station, fill up and be out in 10 minutes or less. They also want to know that they can find a gas station easily even in unfamiliar places. On the other hand people realize the need (including ecological and environmental) and beauty of the EV. As EVs are generally designed from the ground up, they have more convenience and usability features. Some people are able to adapt their usage around the limitations of EV's. So there is a comparatively small but definitely growing market for EV's. In addition to long refueling (charging) times, there is also price premium on EV's (Government subsidies on price tend to distort the market as I learned from Economics 101. If you remove the tax incentives, EV's are much more expensive compared to a similar ICE). So unless price starts dropping, EV sales will still follow an organic growth path.

    Economic history tells us a few things. As EV's become more popular, more competitors will enter the market and the market will grow. Second more competitors means more innovation and cost reduction, which will also grow the market. (In semi-conductors it is the Moores Law.) The combination will cause exponential growth and we are beginning to see it start to happen. The innovations that come will address the limitations of the EV we see today. One day, you can go to one of the several Electric Stations on your path, charge up to 90% in 10 minutes or less and be on your way. That "one day" is still a ways off.

    So while I believe Tesla will grow, I do not anticipate the Tesla will become to the EV market, what Amazon is and the GM/Toyota... will go the way of Sears and K-mart. I am not going to be dumping my GM stock any time soon.
     
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  8. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    Wrong! No ICE maker in history ever had a vehicle with anything even remotely like the demand of the Model 3. And none of them could have made the Model 3 because they are too backwards and captured by the petrol industry. We know that demand ins't reducing but is accelerating and word of mouth would expect it too.

    Pretty much everything you said is a misrepresentation. You talking about gas stations? They are now no value added rent seekers.
    Dealers- they are also no value added rent seekers. That fool executive at Auto Nation that was running his mouth, he is not going to be in business pretty soon because he is a no value added rip off. Nobody appreciates the premium they have to pay the damn dealer- like 25% of the value of your car for what(?) the harassment? No, no body wants that.

    So let me put you stuff in perspective. You buy a Model 3 and you plug it in at home 2x a week- that is possibly 650 miles of range a week. How many people put 650 miles worth of gas in their gas powered vehicle a week? You plug your Model 3 in at home 2x a week and you have that amount of miles without going to the gas station. Its not like you're waiting for that to charge. You just plug it it at night or use a plate. Having a Model 3 means you don't waste money on gas stations anymore and waste on their little premium or stupid little rip offs like 'premium' gas and you aren't paying a rent seeking fuel bill especially if you have solar cells and power walls at home. People aren't idiots, they don't want this sht anymore. The petrol industry still doesn't get how strong the desire to be free of their bs rent seeking industry is. I mean, what's it gonna take (?) a global civil war, WWIII, we're just not going to buy their unnecessary products anymore its just that simple. And they don't have a right to sell their unnecessary products anymore, they don't have any special rights or status, they are just gross polluter criminals that prosecution, so quite trying to stand up for that BS. But really having GM stock says everything about where your coming from and the legitimacy of your position. Another person on her goes by speculawyer- come on what is that a short lawyer.

    You have to think of the outrageous hypocrisy and decadence of a group of people that try to get rich off of telling lies to manipulate stock prices thinking they can get justice to stop someone who was trying to end that vandalism and who gave warning of intent to take firm private before actually doing so. Who cares if those moron public menace types to a huge loss, that is what they have been doing all along.
    Smashing them is exactly what Tesla's actual investor base wants- smash those stupid anti Tesla investor shills. Musk warned them- get out because short burn of the century is coming (surely working on the deal at the time of the warning,) then when news of an actual change comes they whine and try ridiculously to go criminal. Totally inverted that short vandals are not standing trial right now.

    Another thing is- Lutz is such a friggen hypocrit. Its looks like its Lutz himself that is on his way to the grave. But much more than that he BS about and at the same time he is totally invested in work horse electric trucks. He says electric cars dont' work but when it comes to his own money he invests in it- what a f-ing liar. Its to calculated to chalk it up to senility but its no more intelligent.
     
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I swear, I'm beginning to think "vaporware" is the most misused word in the English language. :rolleyes:

    Tesla has not specified any date for the pickup entering production, nor even announced the official name for the vehicle, so you can't rationally even claim it's late, let alone vaporware. What the pickup is, is a back-burner project for Tesla. Something which they have as a long-term goal, but currently don't have much resources devoted to it. At least, that's my impression; I could be wrong, since I don't have any spies sifting thru files on Elon's laptop. ;) But with all the irons Tesla has in the fire at the moment -- Model 3 production/delivery ramp-up, the new Tesla Body Shop goal for "1-day"/ "1-hour" service, Model Y development, Tesla Roadster Mk II development, Tesla Semi Truck development, China Gigafactory, possible European Gigafactory, Tesla Energy solar panel production and sales, upgrades for the Model S/X battery packs to use 2170 cells from Gigafactory 1... I doubt they're spending much time on the pickup, and likely won't for the next couple of years.

    * * * * *

    From Wikipedia:

    In the computer industry, vaporware... is a product, typically computer hardware or software, that is announced to the general public but is never actually manufactured nor officially cancelled. Use of the word has broadened to include products such as automobiles.​
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2018
  10. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yeah, Tesla isn't going to capture 90% of the EV market, the way Ford once did with the Model T capturing 90% of the automobile market. Tesla is growing fast, but it can't grow that fast, and eventually the legacy auto makers will begin to make and sell EVs in serious numbers.

    On the other hand, just look at the digital camera revolution. Sure, most of the bigger camera makers did survive the transition from film to digital cameras. But the biggest one, Kodak, did not! I wouldn't be so sure that GM will survive the transition. One thing seems almost certain: At least some of the current market leaders selling gasmobiles won't be around 15 years from now.

    The only questions are just which ones will fail, and which EV startups will grow to be new market leaders. By now, it seems pretty certain Tesla will be one of them. But it's rather unlikely that 15 years from now, Tesla will be the only new auto maker with a significant share of the EV market.

     

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