Tesla lives another day and leaves shorts crying.

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by marshall, May 4, 2019.

  1. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Tesla issuing stock was the obvious solution to what appears to be a short-term cash-flow problem.

    This isn't the first time that Tesla has raised money despite Elon insisting for months beforehand that they weren't going to do that. And my guess is that this won't be the last, either.

    Fortunately, one of the many things that Elon is a genius at is attracting investor money. If and when Elon steps down from his position as CEO of Tesla (which apparently won't be anytime soon), I hope they will keep him on as head of investor relations.
     
  2. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Here is my problem with this. If you tell everyone loudly you do not need to borrow and then suddenly the next day borrow money, you either do not have a control over your operations (you do not what the real position is till it hits you in the head), or you knew what the real position was, but chose to pretend everything was OK. IMHO, it is the second case for Tesla, but I do not know for a fact that Tesla knew in advance they needed to borrow money but kept insisting that they did not need the money.

    Even if I am wrong about about the situation, either case is troubling. If they do not have controls, then it is a serious governance matter that needs to be rectified quickly if Tesla is to continue to be a viable company. If the second case is true, then it is hiding material facts. Just because Elon can get away with it does not make it right. It is true that Tesla is under more scrutiny than most other companies. Many companies have to borrow and nothing much is made about it. Tesla on the other hand has lofty valuations and more hype and hence even small matters are blown out of proportion. So I can understand that management would not want to disclose their hand in advance. In that case, the best thing is to keep quite, not mislead.

    There are people who might be upset about any criticism of Elon. I do not dispute that he is a genius and a visionary, but that does not make him less mortal. He has crossed the line a few times, and will continue to do so, as he thinks he can get away with it. This particular incident in itself may not be much, but when you play with fire, you risk getting burned badly.
     
  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I agree it is troubling. It's even more troubling that it seems to be a pattern, with Elon being overly optimistic to the point of trying to pursue unrealistic goals.

    I've suggested many time that Tesla would be better off if Elon would step back, away from the CEO position. But most Tesla fans appear to disagree with me on that, rather sharply. I guess most Tesla stockholders do, too.

    Elon's extreme optimism has served him well in some cases. SpaceX never would have been founded, and we would never have had the thrill of watching twin SpaceX booster rockets land on their tails in perfect synchronization, an astounding ballet of orbital ballistics. But Elon needs an anchor to counterweight his flights of fancy, and clearly he has never found the partner he needs to be that counterweight.

     
  4. marshall

    marshall Active Member

    I'm not concerned with what Elon says. What's more interesting is the vacillating in the pricing that we have seen in the last few months. That seems to suggest some conflict within the company.

    Anyhow, they now have the funding to last for a while.
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  5. David Green

    David Green Active Member

    Tesla got a 1 year lifeline, I wonder if they will screw up this opportunity with more bad decisions and be back next year with more FSD promises and hand out for more money? Sounds like sales are off to a bad start for Q2, USA sales weak, Europe worse.
     
  6. marshall

    marshall Active Member

    Aren't new cars off to a slow start in general?

    They now have the money for leasing. That's a big help.
     
  7. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Where Tesla has lucked out it is that there is no real competition at the moment. Everyone is still trying to figure out how to make these cars cheaper, how to get a bigger charging infrastructure and how to incorporate self driving capabilities. It is in Tesla's interest to have as much cash on hand for that day as things could get very difficult for Tesla, if and when it happens. I use "if" as no one has really showed that resolve today, with competitive products and services.
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Superior product is a powerful advantage. Unlike traditional car makers, Tesla is not burdened by legacy design rules.

    Bob Wilson
     
  9. David Green

    David Green Active Member

    I am not sure if new cars are off to a slow start, I heard Audi was down 21% IN Q1, but Tesla S and X were down 50% from Q1 2018, and even worse compared to Q4 2018. From what I have been reading Tesla is struggling again in Q2, Norway, Netherlands, and USA sales are nowhere near the run rate Elon guided.
     
  10. David Green

    David Green Active Member

    Tesla also does not have profit from legacy products to fund their development, hence the constant adding of debt and dilution of the equity to survive. When Tesla becomes sustainably profitable, only then will their business case make sense.
     
  11. David Green

    David Green Active Member

    Not sure anyone cares about competition, Jaguar is selling their I-Pace's, and Audi their E-Tron's, as a matter of fact in the channels that have fill, they are outselling S and X so far in 2019. Look at Norway, Netherlands, and other markets where the cars have been sent first to market. Actually Model 3 sales seem to have collapsed in Norway, and most of Europe in April... May not starting off much better.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Are those some EU metrics? The Insideev numbers look different.

    Bob Wilson
     
    interestedinEV likes this.
  13. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Yes, the US numbers look like this for BEV for the first 4 months as shown below. The first number represents the ranking based on BEP + PHEV. Compared to the model S/X, I-Pace is way down. May be the EU market is different, but not seeing great numbers all around. Model 3s are around 8100 a month average, half of about the 15,000 to 20,000 production range in Q4 2018. But Tesla is still far ahead of the others. Bolt is a distant distant second. I-Pace is not the Tesla killer that it was supposed to represent. Leaf's fortunes may improve with the new model, operative work is may.

    1 Tesla Model 3* 32,475
    4 Chevrolet Bolt EV* 5,226
    5 Tesla Model X* 4,900
    7Tesla Model S* 4,450
    8 Nissan LEAF 3,636
    14 Volkswagen e-Golf 1,263
    16 Jaguar I-Pace 845
     
  14. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Tesla did a Q4 2018 effort to maximize the $7.5k credit. Then Model 3 cannibalizes the low end Model S and X. So I’m not surprised by the sales in Q1 2019. Regardless, we’ll have another production report in July and financials in August.

    A stock holder, I’m patient. A Model 3 owner, very pleased with the product.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2019
  16. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Completely delusional. It's like he copied that entire thing from the fanatic anti-Tesla cultists at TESLAQ.

     
  17. David Green

    David Green Active Member

    Look at I-Pace sales in Europe... after all its the total model sales that matter most. I-Pace is only on sale in some US states, and very limited inventory outside of CA.... E-Tron also started USA sales last Month (inside EV missed it on their list, but I know of at least 3 deliveries) Audi is also advertising and pushing much harder. I had my full day test drive, and the car is very impressive, extremely good build quality (best built Electric car on the road currently) and comfortable Consumption was high, as was charge rate, We averaged 150 kW from 12-79% SOC, and hit a peak of 155kW for a while. I thought it was a very refined package, but had a hard time justifying the price. Audi will have to get aggressive on the price to lure me, but they do have the best built electric car, if you drive an E-tron and Model X back to back (which we did) the difference in refinement is striking. Model X was noisy, rough riding over bumps, and rattly compared to E-tron. E-tron was also very planted at highway speeds, and inspired much better road holding confidence then Model X.
     
  18. David Green

    David Green Active Member

    Model 3 is an OK car at the current pricing, as Tesla struggles and gets more aggressive on pricing I might even buy one for our office, but also considering Niro EV after having driven both the Niro has better utility for our staff
     
  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Inside scoop: Video from secret meeting of the Tesla short sellers!

    Can this be a "spy camera" video of a meeting of those who run the TSLAQ forum?

     
    bwilson4web likes this.

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