Model 3 production ramping up

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Rex B, Jan 3, 2018.

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  1. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Maybe in your Bizarro short-selling FUDster world! Here in the real world, the stock price plunged and then recovered because the entire stock market plunged and then recovered.

    Did you really think we wouldn't notice that, Mr. FUDster? :rolleyes: Seriously, just how stupid do you think people are? Pretty insulting on your part.

    And the next time you quote me without attribution, Mr. FUDster, don't add boldface emphasis without noting in your comment that the emphasis was added by you.
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    Last edited: Apr 7, 2018
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  3. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    My opinion is, anyone who cares more about TSLA than Tesla (in either a positive way or a negative way) is a person whos interests are counter to my own. They don't care about EVs but primarily care about personal enrichment on either the rise or the fall of the stock.

    And that's fine. You don't have to care about plug-ins whatsoever to be long or short on TSLA. But it severely taints your opinion of the company.

    I'll let you and Tesla worry about TSLA. I don't care how much shorters lose or how much longers gain or vice-versa. Not any more than I care about people who invest in GM or FB or anything else on the stock market.
     
    Pushmi-Pullyu likes this.
  4. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Bravo! Well said, sir.

    I've seen calm discussion between "short" and "long" investors, on other forums. Calm discussion of investing in other companies -- not Tesla.

    There seems to be something unique about Tesla's stock that motivates so many TSLA "short" investors to post rampant amounts of FUD, half-truths, and copious amounts of outright lies about Tesla and its cars in social media posts.

    I don't get it. I'm not sure I want to go deep enough into the rabbit hole to actually understand what motivates people to make a conscious decision to become compulsive liars!

    But I sure wish it would stop! Negative but honest opinions are one thing. We all have those, or at least most of us do. But intentional FUD and outright lying... well, even aside from showing what a very low opinion the liar has of himself, what's the purpose? Do those serially lying short-sellers honestly think that any one of them, no matter how profligately they post, can move the stock price by as much as a single penny? Can they really be that deluded? I don't see why they think it's worth their time. Since greed is obviously their motive, why don't they spend their time on something which might actually earn them money?

    Color me puzzled, as well as exasperated.
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    WadeTyhon likes this.
  5. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Great conclusions you got going there with no knowledge about me!
    "anyone who cares more about TSLA than Tesla" -> That would be Elon. Pointing out the stock pumping is the issue, the stock pumping is not the issue. /sarc
     
  6. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    I think you miss the point I was making. I don't see an issue with people pumping the stock or in others explaining why they think Tesla is overvalued. They can do what they want, and so can you but neither of your interests are the same as mine.

    So exactly what conclusions did I get wrong? Your name is "TeslaInvestors". You rarely post but when you do, you primarily write negatively about plug-ins, EV fans and Tesla. So my assumption is you not only short Tesla but also have disdain for EVs and often their drivers. I get no impression that you own, or ever plan to own a plug-in vehicle.

    Is any of this incorrect? Do you actually own a plug-in and/or Tesla stock?

    I don't care that you don't like EVs or Tesla. But this is an EV forum not an online traders forum.

    I look at your posts the same way I do Tesla stories on Seeking Alpha or on any article Fred writes on Electrek. Like you, their opinions on Tesla are compromised ones. So I look at them with skepticism first, not an open mind. (But at least Fred and other TSLA stock owners are promoting EVs and usually own them themselves!)

    Anyways if I'm incorrect about your view of Tesla and EVs and EV owners, by all means correct me. :)
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2018
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  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    No, that would be you. In just a short time here, you've already commented far more about Tesla's stock on social media than Elon ever has. Fortunately for Tesla and SpaceX, Elon has better things to do with his time than obsess over the stock price!

    The issue is so many people posting to InsideEVs dragging the discussion off-topic into Tesla's stock price. This isn't an investor's forum; this is an EV forum. There are plenty of investor forums where you can discuss stock prices; why come here and muck up this forum when you obviously don't care anything about EVs?

    The title of this discussion thread is "Model 3 production ramping up". If you want to talk about Tesla's stock, you can start a thread of your own in the "Off-Topic" section here, where all of us actual EV advocates can ignore it.
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    Last edited: Apr 8, 2018
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  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Electrek published the full text of a new e-mail from Elon Musk, addressing the current state of Model 3 ramp-up:

    Progress, Precision and Profit

    Elon Musk

    Everybody

    Progress

    First, congratulations are in order! We have now completed our third full week of producing over 2000 Model 3 vehicles. The first week was 2020, the second was 2070 and we just completed 2250 last week, along with 2000 Model S/X vehicles.

    This is more than double Tesla’s weekly production rate last year and an amazing feat in the face of many challenges! It is extremely rare for an automotive company to grow the production rate by over 100% from one year to the next. Moreover, there has simultaneously been a significant improvement in quality and build accuracy, which is reflected in positive owner feedback.

    Starting today at Giga and tomorrow at Fremont, we will be stopping for three to five days to do a comprehensive set of upgrades. This should set us up for Model 3 production of 3000 to 4000 per week next month.

    Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.

    Any Tesla department or supplier that is unable to do this will need to have a very good explanation why not, along with a plan for fixing the problem and present that to me directly. If anyone needs help achieving this, please let me know as soon as possible. We are going to find a way or make a way to get there.

    The reason that the burst-build target rate is 6000 and not 5000 per week in June is that we cannot have a number with no margin for error across thousands of internally and externally produced parts and processes, amplified by a complex global logistics chain. Actual production will move as fast as the least lucky and least well-executed part of the entire Tesla production/supply chain system.

    By having a Model 3 subsystem burst-build requirement of 6k by the end of June, we will lay the groundwork for achieving a steady 6k/week across the whole Model 3 system a few months later.

    As part of the drive towards 6k, all Model 3 production at Fremont will move to 24/7operations. This means that we will be adding another shift to general assembly, body and paint. Please refer anyone you know who you think meets the Tesla bar for talent, drive and trust. Between Fremont and Giga, Tesla will be adding about 400 people per week for several weeks.

    Precision

    Most of the design tolerances of the Model 3 are already better than any other car in the world. Soon, they will all be better. This is not enough. We will keep going until the Model 3 build precision is a factor of ten better than any other car in the world. I am not kidding.

    Our car needs to be designed and built with such accuracy and precision that, if an owner measures dimensions, panel gaps and flushness, and their measurements don’t match the Model 3 specs, it just means that their measuring tape is wrong.

    Some parts suppliers will be unwilling or unable to achieve this level of precision. I understand that this will be considered an unreasonable request by some. That’s ok, there are lots of other car companies with much lower standards. They just can’t work with Tesla.

    Profit

    A fair criticism leveled at Tesla by outside critics is that you’re not a real company unless you generate a profit, meaning simply that revenue exceeds costs. It didn’t make sense to do that until reaching economies of scale, but now we are there.

    Going forward, we will be far more rigorous about expenditures. I have asked the Tesla finance team to comb through every expense worldwide, no matter how small, and cut everything that doesn’t have a strong value justification.

    All capital or other expenditures above a million dollars, or where a set of related expenses may accumulate to a million dollars over the next 12 months, should be considered on hold until explicitly approved by me. If you are the manager responsible, please make sure you have a detailed, first principles understanding of the supplier quote, including every line item of parts & labor, before we meet.

    I have been disappointed to discover how many contractor companies are interwoven throughout Tesla. Often, it is like a Russian nesting doll of contractor, subcontractor, sub-subcontractor, etc. before you finally find someone doing actual work. This means a lot of middle-managers adding cost but not doing anything obviously useful. Also, many contracts are essentially open time & materials, not fixed price and duration, which creates an incentive to turn molehills into mountains, as they never want to end the money train.

    There is a very wide range of contractor performance, from excellent to worse than a drunken sloth. All contracting companies should consider the coming week to be a final opportunity to demonstrate excellence. Any that fail to meet the Tesla standard of excellence will have their contracts ended on Monday.

    Btw, here are a few productivity recommendations:

    – Excessive meetings are the blight of big companies and almost always get worse over time. Please get of all large meetings, unless you’re certain they are providing value to the whole audience, in which case keep them very short.

    – Also get rid of frequent meetings, unless you are dealing with an extremely urgent matter. Meeting frequency should drop rapidly once the urgent matter is resolved.

    – Walk out of a meeting or drop off a call as soon as it is obvious you aren’t adding value. It is not rude to leave, it is rude to make someone stay and waste their time.

    – Don’t use acronyms or nonsense words for objects, software or processes at Tesla. In general, anything that requires an explanation inhibits communication. We don’t want people to have to memorize a glossary just to function at Tesla.

    – Communication should travel via the shortest path necessary to get the job done, not through the “chain of command”. Any manager who attempts to enforce chain of command communication will soon find themselves working elsewhere.

    – A major source of issues is poor communication between depts. The way to solve this is allow free flow of information between all levels. If, in order to get something done between depts, an individual contributor has to talk to their manager, who talks to a director, who talks to a VP, who talks to another VP, who talks to a director, who talks to a manager, who talks to someone doing the actual work, then super dumb things will happen. It must be ok for people to talk directly and just make the right thing happen.

    – In general, always pick common sense as your guide. If following a “company rule” is obviously ridiculous in a particular situation, such that it would make for a great Dilbert cartoon, then the rule should change.

    If there is something you think should be done to make Tesla execute better or allow you to look forward to coming to work more (same thing in the long term), please send a note to [redacted]

    Thanks for being such a kickass team and accomplishing miracles every day. It matters. We are burning the midnight oil to burn the midnight oil.

    Elon
    Full article at Electrek: "Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk"

    InsideEVs news article (with comments following): "Musk Says Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is 6,000 A Week By June"
     
  10. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    6000 cars per week (that probably includes the MS and MX, not just TM3 units) sounds like another deliberately impossible goal from Elon. But according to another of his e-mails, Tesla has actually achieved a run rate of slightly over 2000 TM3 units for 3 weeks in a row, so that apparently is sustainable.

    2000 TM3 units per week for 4 weeks would be 8000 in one month!

    Looks like the next InsideEVs "Report Card" figure for TM3 sales, for April, should show a very significant uptick! Even with an approx. one-week shutdown to tweak the line for faster production.

    Go Tesla!

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    There doesn't appear to be a thread specifically for Tesla Stockholder meeting comments, so I'll post this here...

    Somebody made up a "Bingo card" for the current Tesla Stockholder meeting!

    Tesla-meeting_Bingo-card.jpg



    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  13. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Just putting it out there for a perspective.

    Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017
    https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-tesla-model-3-production-target-is-up-to-200000-in-second-half-of-2017/

    No comments about this from me either.
    elons_hope_20k_m3_in_dec_2017.PNG
    Another gem of a list about Autopilot here:
    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/list-of-elon-musk-autopilot-predictions.90432/
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2018
  14. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    It's reported that at the meeting, Elon announced Tesla Model 3 production rate is up to 3500 per week.
    :) :) :)

    If you do the math, that would theoretically come to 182,000 TM3s per year, altho of course that does not include down time to upgrade the production line or days off for holidays.

     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2018
  15. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Your entirely one-sided so-called "perspective" -- not merely biased, and in truth the exact opposite of perspective -- is all about how Elon has been over-optimistic on the timeline of Tesla getting things accomplished.

    As they say: "Actions speak louder than words." Tesla's (or rather Elon's) words, and his timeline, are frequently or usually overly optimistic, but Tesla's actions speak very loudly indeed! Tesla fans can proudly point to what Tesla has actually done. Serial anti-Tesla bashers would like everyone to forget about what Tesla has actually accomplished:

    Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
    2012: 2650
    2013: 22,300
    2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
    2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
    2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
    2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)

    U.S. Sales only, year-to-date Jan-May*:
    2017: 15,590
    2018: 33,350 (+113.9%)

    *As estimated on InsideEVs Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard

    Go Tesla!
    :) :) :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2018
  16. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    This seems to be a fairly unbiased report on the stockholder meeting:

    From The Street: "Top Takeaways From Tesla's Annual Meeting"

    I found this section of the article to be of particular interest:

    The Future of Tesla
    So what else did Musk & Co. have to say?

    The company's looking to scale its energy storage business, which at the moment cannot meet demand. The goal here is to obtain gross margins similar to the company's automotive segment goals, in the 20% to 30% range.

    On the Gigafactory front, management seems pretty excited about starting its factory in China and plans to select a location in Europe later this year.

    As for the vehicles, Musk seemed pretty excited about the Model Y, but investors can shelve their hopes about seeing it this year. The unveil will come sometime in 2019 with the hope of beginning production in about two years, sometime in the first half of 2020.

    Musk also said the automaker is redesigning the Semi because they can get significantly more range out of it and improve the functionality. The blistering speed and impressive specs of the Roadster now appear to be the "base model," indicating that a performance version will likely come too.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2018
  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Quoting from The Street article cited above:

    Musk also said the automaker is redesigning the Semi because they can get significantly more range out of it and improve the functionality.
    So I'm finally proven correct in predicting that what Tesla would show at the Tesla Semi Truck revel event would be (and was) a concept vehicle or technology demonstrator, rather than a pre-production prototype. Not all of my predictions about the Tesla Semi Truck were correct, but certainly most of them were! :)

     
  18. God

    God Member

    I'm still wondering the Tesla will waive the Model 3s $5K PUP requirement with the Performance version...

    The "truck" aspect, not the EV aspect, has been highly criticized by the trucking industry with the chief complaint being the single centered seat...The biggest problem with the Semi compared to ICE isn't the price/operating costs, its that over half of Semi operations LEASE them and in terms of total lease costs compared to MSRP, Tesla vehicles have not been as attractive as their competitors...Nikola is offering a very attractive lease inclusive of fuel and maintenance that supposedly is on par with ICE Semi leases but I don't believe they'll ever deliver a vehicle unless they get a huge infusion of cash...As many have pointing out (and I THINK I saw you write this in a comment before Pushmi) that if ICE Semi start adopting Tesla's aero innovations to increase MPGs, than ICE Semi leases become even more attractive...
     
  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I think it's time to revive this thread! Ridiculous to have Tesla Model 3 production talked about only in a thread started by a serial Tesla basher, entitled "Model 3 production crashing below 1000/week", which wasn't true when that was created, and is absurdly outdated by now!

    * * * * *

    From Wired.com: "Booming Model 3 Sales Are Moving Tesla Beyond its Niche"

    Go Tesla!
    :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2018
    NeilBlanchard likes this.
  20. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I think there is a thread for the Tesla Semi. I'll reply there.

     

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