Model 3 production ramping up

Yeah, there was some news about Tesla needing to adjust the timing on the production line robots at the Fremont assembly plant, if my memory serves. I can't remember how long it was said to be shut down; maybe over a week?

Anyway, "TeslaInvestors", you seem to be a bit behind on the news.
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So far, it seems like Model 3 deliveries will be up from last month, but not considerably so. As of today there is basically no chance they have hit anywhere near 2,500/week production.

We have a few Vins reported in the 10000-11000 range. But for this past week, the majority of reported Vins scheduled to be delivered this month are between 8500 and 10000. Most in the low 9000s.

Since it usually takes 3-6 weeks for delivery, most Model 3s produced between now and the end of the month will be delivered sometime in April. But if they squeeze some out quickly and deliver only to California, they may be able to deliver some of the Model 3s produced this week before the end of the month.

At the moment, I'm thinking sales a little over 3,000 - 3,250 for March? We will see what happens this week, though.

 

To put that "a little over 3000 - 3250" into context:

Tesla Model 3 Sales/Deliveries
(as estimated by InsideEVs, except for Mar 2018)

Jul 2017 - 30
Aug 2017 - 75 (+45)
Sep 2017 - 117 (+42)
Oct 2017 - 145 (+28)
Nov 2017 - 345 (+200)
Dec 2017 - 1060 (+715)
Jan 2018 - 1845 (+785)
Feb 2018 - 2485 (+640)
Mar 2018 - ? "a little over 3000 - 3250" ? ("a little over" +515 to +765)

For the entire period, that averages out to a 95% increase per month. But for the period Dec 2017 - Mar 2018, that averages out to an increase of 44% per month.

This isn't even remotely like the "S-curve" that Tesla projected for ramping up production.
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It is certainly not at the level we all want it to be. But it will still be enough to lead US sales without breaking a sweat I think. Unless X/S sales are through the roof lol. Model S is the only car that might outsell the Model 3 this month.

It should be noted that Tesla registered a large number of VINs with the NHTSA today. The highest number is close to 16000. Throughout March, Tesla registered a total of 4,537 new VINs.

But that isn't a very good indicator for this month or even next month. It will likely be at least a month and a half before we see the production of these VINs. In March, buyers were still seeing VINs that were registered at the end of December and most VINs being reported this past week were registered with the NHTSA in late January.

So I'm only really looking at reservation holders who reported their VIN and were given a delivery date before the end of the month. Hopefully they pull off some last minute deliveries this week, though!

 

I will be very surprised if the Model 3 does not easily outsell every other model of plug-in EVs in the U.S. market this year. Barring some major disaster at Tesla, I can't see how any other outcome would be possible.

A few months ago I was hoping that the Model 3 would outsell all the other PEVs, combined, in the U.S. market during 2018, but that looks rather less likely now.

This is not to say that Tesla is doing badly. Just that it's not doing as well as ardent Tesla fans hoped!

 

I see that the article "Tesla Reportedly Pushes Back AWD, Long-Range Model 3 To Late 2018" has been removed from the InsideEVs news site. Never before have I seen a senior IEVs editor arguing with multiple commenters, insisting that the title of the article was correct, when several readers commented that they found it highly misleading and should be changed.

Anyway, apparently somebody on staff made an executive decision, decided the article was too controversial and pulled it.
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What I found more interesting than the report that some TM3 reservation holders have had their estimated production of a AWD version of the car to "late 2018", was the report that some Canadian reservation holders are now being allowed to convert to an order.

So, once again it looks like Tesla is giving priority to those ordering the currently available versions, over earlier reservation holders, over those living in California, and now even over those living in the USA.

There is another factor which might be at play: Given the much slower ramp-up in TM3 production/deliveries, could Tesla be trying to delay passing the 200,000 threshold until 3rd quarter 2018? If so, then selling to Canada and other areas outside the USA would certainly help Tesla achieve that.

An earlier and very well-informed analysis by WadeTyhon concluded that Tesla would be crossing the 200,000 threshold (after which the Federal tax rebate will be reduced) in 2nd Quarter. (That is, if I recall correctly.) Hey Wade, if you're reading this, does this latest news change the figures enough to put the possibility of a push-back to 3rd quarter into play? I'm guessing not, but would like your input here.
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Oh boy so much to consider...

I'll make this 2 posts. One for what I think would have to happen in the US and one for what would have to happen in Canada.

Here are the scenarios I proposed at the time for how they might hit 200,000 units in Q3:

"There are basically 2 ways they could hit these numbers:
- Production continues to be much lower than they are shooting for.
- A significant portion of Model 3 production is sent into Canada and other markets starting in Q2."

So far, no indication of sales outside of US or Canada. At this point Europe is pretty much out of the question. And Canada sales on their own are simply not going to be enough to offset production if production increases significantly over the next 3 months.

So still, the only way this will be possible is much lower sales for Model X, S and 3.

Here are the pessimistic figures I gave in February as estimates for one possible scenario:
"1000/week
Feb 2018: 4000

1125/week
March 2018: 4500

1500/week
April 2018: 6000

1500/week
May 2018: 7000

2,000/week
June 2018: 8,000"

Unfortunately, even these were optimistic. Production has been between 700 and 800/week for the first half of March. Too early to say for this week and next week. But either way, production continues to be far lower than they were initially shooting for.

Through the end of February, combined Tesla sales were: 169,400

So less than 31,000 S/X/3 sales can go to the US between March and June. So far, X/S sales seem to be down only slightly from last year and March should be the same. But we'll assume a large 30% drop for the next 4 months just for argument's sake.

X + S Sales between March 1st and July 1st, 2017: 15,940
30% drop in US S and X sales between March 1st and July 1st, 2018: 11,158

That gives us 19,842 for Model 3.

roughly 800/week production for March
March Sales: ~3200

roughly 1100/week for April
April Sales: ~4,500

roughly 1500/week for May​

May Sales: ~6,000

roughly 1700 / week for June
June Sales: ~7,000

These aren't particularly good numbers considering what Tesla was planning on. But at this point I think we all expect that to continue! This would make combined sales: 31,858 and would push them over the 200,000 limit. So then Canada would need to offset these sales about 1,000 units.

 

On Canada:

From what I understand, Canadian sales are beginning much like sales in the US - with employees and existing owners for the first production model.

Tesla made it through existing US owners and employees by the end of February. By March any day 1 reservationists were getting invites.

So only about 6,132 existing Tesla owners and employees in the US opted for the first production model as soon as it became available.

And those 6,132 US sales were primarily to West Coast buyers. These Model 3 sales will be to Canada. Without the base model or AWD in Canada (and the Model 3 being RWD) I highly doubt the Model 3 in its current $64,100 CAD form will bust the Canadian sales charts. There are a lot less existing owners and employees in Canada than in the US. And far fewer Service Centers/Galleries. Even Fred of Electrek (the ultimate Tesla fan) said he is waiting for the AWD version, despite getting his invite in Canada. 1,000 sales in 1.5 months seems unlikely but again technically possible.

Canadian deliveries will begin in “4-8 Weeks” according to the online config. So basically Canadian deliveries start in mid-may. But the majority of them will likely happen in June.

Can it happen? Yes, just as before it continues to be technically possible.

But only if:

-X/S sales are down 30% or more
-Tesla still can't crack 2,000/week production
-At least 1,000 Existing owners and Employees in Canada are willing to buy the LR battery pack without AWD

Then, Canadian sales might offset just enough to push the 200,000 sale into July.​

 

Lastly, I'll repeat what I said before... if Tesla looks like they're going to be way off from their Q2 production goals, they should announce that this is all a part of some master plan specifically to push back deliveries into the 3rd quarter. Even if it is BS they should say it lol.

But it only really helps if on July 1st, they're ready to immediately crank up production.

If Tesla is still stuck at about 2,000 /week in Q3, what good does that do anyone? That would still leave us with only 70,000 or so Model 3 buyers getting the full rebate. That is pretty much the same number of buyers most people expected to get the full tax rebate from the start of production last summer.

 

An additional 2,655 VINs registered today. These would likely all ship to the US at some point in Q2.

https://twitter.com/model3vins?lang=en

New sets of invites went out, primarily to California it seems. But also Canadian Tesla owners.

A lot of people in California are getting really quick turnaround times after config and VIN assignment. Some are getting delivery dates about a week or less after getting their VIN! Makes sense... I figured some of the production from this week would get delivered. Tesla is prioritizing California to sneak in some quick deliveries right at the end of the quarter.

More importantly, maybe they're ready to finally increase production?

 

Your +515 was pretty close!

Final Model 3 sales numbers for March will be about 3800 when subtracting Q1 sales from Inside EVs estimates for Jan and Feb.

8180 - 2485 - 1875 = 3820

(Although since we now know that the February shutdown wasn't until the week of 2/20, I think that shut down likely affected early March deliveries more than February. Initially Inside EVs expected this to impact February numbers. Ultimately it doesn't matter and the estimates were close enough, but I think February numbers were closer to 2750. That would put March sales as about 3,555)

 

Well, that was your estimate, not mine! Besides, that estimate was only off by 159%... assuming InsideEVs' estimate is accurate.
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Update for March results:

Tesla Model 3 Sales/Deliveries
(as estimated by InsideEVs)

Jul 2017 - 30
Aug 2017 - 75 (+45; +150%)
Sep 2017 - 117 (+42; +56%)
Oct 2017 - 145 (+28; +24%)
Nov 2017 - 345 (+200; +138%)
Dec 2017 - 1060 (+715; +207%)
Jan 2018 - 1845 (+785; +74%)
Feb 2018 - 2485 (+640; +35%)
Mar 2018 - 3820 (+1335; +54%)

Caveat: March is an end of quarter, when Tesla pulls out all the stops to maximize deliveries. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect that the increase for the past month will be higher than the norm, balanced by lower than normal deliveries in April. Of course, since Tesla is trying to ramp up Model 3 production as fast as possible, the term "normal" is of questionable value here.
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From CNN Tech:

Telsa CEO Elon Musk is sleeping at the factory — again — trying to crank up Model 3 production. But the company still missed its own goal of making 2,500 cars a week.

For any other automaker this would be a gigantic mess. For Tesla it's a win, and the stock rose 6%. At least it's progress, and all it took was the chief executive on a cot.

Imagine if that same announcement came from General Motors (GM) instead of Tesla. Say GM was struggling to make the Chevrolet Bolt EV, and CEO Mary Barra showed up at the Orion Assembly plant with a sleeping bag.

That's laughable because Barra acts like a CEO. She knows how to run a company without sleeping there.

Meanwhile Musk is behaving like a college kid, staying up all night to cram for a test. And by the way, Tesla didn't exactly ace that test -- it still missed the mark.

Tesla built 2,000 Model 3s in one week, but missed its target

"We can't keep treating them like a start-up," Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with Kelly Blue Book, told me. "We need some realistic numbers and we can't keep letting them break them."

Tesla may not have a 100 year track record of building cars like GM and Ford (F). Still, to its credit, Tesla has been a leading electric car manufacturer, and a huge force within the industry. So, maybe it's time for Tesla to act like a mature, stable company.

Tesla should be setting achievable goals and hitting them regularly, all while making a quality product. Maybe that sounds like a lot. But frankly, it's the least investors and customers should expect from any company.

"They made an announcement about hitting a 2,000 unit build rate [for one week]," said Sam Abuelsamid, a transportation analyst with Navigant Research. "They say they're on track to build another 2,000 this week. The question is, can they do that consistently?"

We'll have to wait until next quarter to find out.​

Full article: "Analysis: Tesla should be held to a higher standard"

I'm a Tesla fan, but I have to agree this is on the mark. Tesla -- and Musk -- need to put on their big boy pants and stop announcing ridiculously over-optimistic goals and guidance.

And if they don't, then investors and financial institutions should take that into account when considering an investment in Tesla, whether that's buying the stock, buying its bonds, or loaning money to the company. As has been said, stock price doesn't reflect how well stock buyers and sellers think the company is performing, it reflects how well they think it's going to perform in the coming months and years. By now, nobody should be thinking Tesla is going to perform as well as it claims it's going to.

Make no mistake, I very strongly hope Tesla will continue to grow rapidly, and continue to push the EV revolution forward at a much faster pace than legacy auto makers want. But as a Tesla fan, it's downright embarrassing to see Tesla constantly miss its announced goals, to the point that missing goals by a wide mark has actually become expected.

Time to grow up, Tesla!

 

Yeah. It lets people really detract from what is a great accomplishment. It’s fine for Elon to set high internal goals, but the public voice and investor info should be more realistic.

Also, when realist predict lower estimates than the stated Musk targets, or timelines, the Tesla faithful attack us for being shills and trolls.

 

I don't think Elon Musk has it in him to be a standard boring, reliable CEO like Mary Barra that stays on message and chooses every word carefully.

It's what people love about him... but also it's what can be very frustrating.

 

Part of the problem is that the PR and Marketing departments have no control over the messaging and narrative.

Elon and the media control the messaging. The PR people are probably too busy putting out fires! Lol

They’re trying to explain why Tesla didn’t meet expectations... instead of managing those expectations from the start. Advertising and Marketing are more than just selling people products! Brand management is very important.

Elon is a big picture, high concept kind if guy. He is fantastic at building hype and getting media attention. But he isn’t perfect at everything!

 

"For any other automaker this would be a gigantic mess. For Tesla it's a win, and the stock rose 6%. At least it's progress, and all it took was the chief executive on a cot."

What a joke this is . May be he should show up with his work tools, not sleeping bag
The stock rose because of the stock pumping embedded in the delivery note ( don't need money, Ford Model T, etc. etc.).
And what an unimpressive S curve ramp! Way worse than Nissan Leaf 2.

"But as a Tesla fan, it's downright embarrassing to see Tesla constantly miss its announced goals, to the point that missing goals by a wide mark has actually become expected."

Yeah. I suspect boosting the stock price for capital raise may have something to do with this.It's not just some innocent idiocy. But Elon just lectured Brian Johnson in the last quarterly call about volume/velocity and how Toyota will wish to be like Tesla in making cars