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Bloomberg Model 3 tracker shows production crashing below 1000/week

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by TeslaInvestors, May 6, 2018.

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  1. Jun 5, 2018 #81
    TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    No worries. That'll happen once the tax credit expires or diminishes.
    Here is another angle. Many of the early reservations were sold or are listed on various websites for sale. These are essentially trimming the reservationists from the end of the queue.
    Tesla will be lucky if 23% will buy. That's a pretty good conversion rate, imo.

    Elon always like to compare two randomly chosen unknown numbers and makes the new number look good. This research blew a big hole through Elon's repeated claims on how new orders have never been better, how he never felt happier, etc. etc.

    While the push back of $35k is one reason, other major reasons are:
    - Uncomfortable back seat where you need to take a neo natal position to fit in.
    - Awkward dashboard
    - Realization that Autopilot and Tesla network earning money while you sit in office is a major hoax.
    - Various build qualities, bumpy rides, cabin noise, etc.
    - New competition.

    5k production bursts? They will be so short that we will need a strobe light to see them :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2018

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  2. Jun 5, 2018 #82
    bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Huntsville, AL
    It looks like Tesla Model 3 production has entered the steeply rising, "S" curve:
    [​IMG]
    Looking over the past four months:

    Model 3 6300 3800 3680 2600
    . . .
    Model S 1500 1200 3200 1100
    Model X 1500 1000 2500 900

    Even Model X and S sales appear to be recovering.

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. Jun 5, 2018 #83
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Anti-Tesla FUDsters keep repeating the same arguments over and over. Once they wanted everyone to set their hair on fire about a 25% reservation cancellation rate for the Model S; now they want to do the same for a 23% cancellation rate for the Model 3.

    Nuthin' to see here; move along, move along!

    ​
     
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  4. Jun 5, 2018 #84
    bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Huntsville, AL
    The funny thing is I wasn't interested in the earlier Tesla models and never saw the older FUD. They are very nice BEVs and the drag racing Youtubes are a hoot. We had two Prius and in 2016, replaced them both with plug-in hybrids and never looked back. But there is a familiar pattern.

    Prius owners dealt with similar FUD over the years. Too often just outright lies that when you look into the claims, you are reminded of the old 'tobacco' wars. So when I see the same propaganda techniques used against the Model 3 and Tesla, I am sympathetic. Been there; done that, and; got the posting history. <grins>

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. Jun 5, 2018 #85
    David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Why are all the comparison vehicle slow selling models... Can we compare Tesla 3 to Camry, Prius (not just prime), Accord, and some segment leaders?
     

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  6. Jun 5, 2018 #86
    Domenick

    Domenick Administrator

    2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD
    It should be up there with the Camry, Accord and Altima by the end of June, production-wise. If they hit that target, deliveries should out-pace even the Camry (35,254 units in March) by the end of July.
     
  7. Jun 5, 2018 #87
    Domenick

    Domenick Administrator

    2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD
    Some cars were, no doubt sold to other reservation holders. Some cancelled their 3 and got an S or X. Without hard figures, this report, like so many other Tesla issues is a Rorschach test.

    Some people don't like the back seat. I'm 6'2" and thought it was fine.
    Some people don't like the dash and the lack of HUD. I love the dash, would like to see some sort of HUD, but hardly a dealbreaker for me.
    I've never seen anyone talk about level 4 autonomy as a factor in buying a Model 3
    Build quality has improved, the suspension has improved, cabin noise, which was similar to most cars, has improved.
    I welcome competition.

    YMMV.
     
  8. Jun 5, 2018 #88
    David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Domenick, come on man... You really think Tesla is going to reach 35K model 3 deliveries next month? That is production well over 1000 units a day? Tesla struggled and strained to hit 500 on one day a week and a half ago. That 500 was not sustained the following day going into the shutdown. I expect you to put just a bit more thought into your post, and post things that actually make sense. Elon said in the letter on April 16.

    "By having a Model 3 subsystem burst-build requirement of 6k by the end of June, we will lay the groundwork for achieving a steady 6k/week across the whole Model 3 system a few months later."

    When I read this I get that the goal is by June 30 to have each subsystem burst to a rate of 6K per week, so that the entire production can get there on 9-30-2018? So Elon's goal for Tesla is 6K our week by 9-30-2018, and for the record how does Tesla typically do in reaching Elon's goals? Just FYI 6K our week is not even close to 1K+ per day sustained. And 9-30-2018 is not July... So your message, is not the bull case, its the fairy tale case. I am not being a negative Nellie, I am just going with the facts and messages that have been made public. Elon has stated publicly that Tesla goal is sustained 5K per week at the end of Q2, which is + or - 21.4K per month, or 714 a day... Show me the math that gets Tesla to 35K produced, and or delivered any month this year??
     
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  9. Jun 5, 2018 #89
    bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Huntsville, AL
    I tried an experimental posting from the Hybridcars dashboard but the silence was deafening. If you'd like to see the full table:
    https://priuschat.com/threads/dashboard-summary-may-2018.196320/

    Bob Wilson
     

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  10. Jun 5, 2018 #90
    David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Tesla has improved Model 3 quality, but the design flaws cannot be fixed... The UI has been nipped in just about every professional review, and every owner I know personally (just 4, so a very small sample) do not like it better then their previous car. They love the model 3 handling, but feel the seating position front and back is not great (knees high seating position) and even Zac and Jessie on now you know have commented that the seats are not terrific, coming from those Tesla FAN BOYS, that is telling. For them saying something critical of Elon is like a sin... My opinion is that Tesla will not be able to absorb 20K per month into North America for any sustained period, and as word gets out to more people about the problems of the Model 3, reservations will convert to orders at a much lower rate.
     
  11. Jun 5, 2018 #91
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    This is, quite literally, the first time I have ever seen anyone seriously suggest that the production or sales of any EV should be compared to the very top-selling gasmobile cars. (Not light trucks, not yet; but cars.) I guess we can finally say that EVs are ready for prime time!

    WOW is the EV revolution accelerating!

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Jun 5, 2018 #92
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Here, let me convert that to a true statement for you:

    As word gets out to more people about the Model 3, reservations will convert to orders at a much faster rate.
    :) :) :)
     
  13. Jun 5, 2018 #93
    Domenick

    Domenick Administrator

    2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD
    I know you aren't being a "negative Nellie," and that this is your honest assessment, and I certainly know the scenario I outlined is (probably too) optimistic since the company is often behind/short on its targets. I pulled up March figures this morning, the first link I saw, and Camry was at 24,xxx, while its competitors were lower. Just now I've checked May's numbers and they are higher (Camry did 29,848 in May).

    So, I don't see Model 3 hitting 35k a month for a while -- probably not this year. If it can get up to 21.4K, that's certainly approaching the neighbourhood of the top selling sedans.

    They'll get production there eventually. I think the bigger challenge may be sustaining that sort of demand once it does. It's a declining segment overall, and I think the Kona, and any number of other electric crossovers are going to eat into its market share. Though, then again, it remains to be seen what kind of numbers the competition is capable of producing as well. They seem to be having a hard time keeping up with demand at this point. Them it becomes a tale of supply chain.
     
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  14. Jun 5, 2018 #94
    Domenick

    Domenick Administrator

    2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD
    The UI is very flexible, and they've already made some changes to it. I agree that it's still not ideal, and I'd like to see a HUD. My sister drives a 1st gen Scion xB (center-mounted speedometer)and I certainly found the Tesla instrumentation easier to deal with than it.

    I really liked the front seats in the Model 3 I drove, and the back seats seemed fine. I understand that some people didn't like them but they seemed pretty par for course to me. They have added more padding to them, I understand.

    I think the word on the car's shortcomings is out there already. The points you mention are in almost every review. There's an army of anti-Tesla folks all over social media. Plenty of people who haven't driven it already have a negative opinion. (And of course, lots have a positive one as well.)
     
  15. Jun 5, 2018 #95
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I saw an apparently candid photo of a new HUD display posted online just the other day. A photo taken in broad daylight, yet the display was crystal clear and had bright colors. (Wish I could remember where I saw that, so I could copy it here.) I had no idea that HUD tech for civilian vehicles was anywhere near this good.

    Here's hoping that Tesla starts offering a HUD display in the Model 3, and soon! Sure, many are happy with the instrument readings in the upper corner of the main display, but for those who aren't, it would be nice to have another option.

    ​
     
  16. Jun 5, 2018 #96
    TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    "apparently candid photo" - haha! Shows how twisted the brains of some posters here are. Club MuskBro speaks!
    Yes, the HUD is available in Clarity Fuel cell , along with a fully functional digital driver's instrument panel that can read out and display text messages and also show many other relevant info. It's all there in the Honda Clarity Fuel cell thread I created, for all of you to behold, on how a modern car should be.

    Comparing a $55k-$79k car to a decade old subcompact Scion xB that costs < $20k is equally laughable. Essentially, you are admitting that the supposed leading edge car maker Tesla is producing decade old econoboxes and hoping to sell a million copies a year at $50k+! Haven't heard a more ridiculous thing in a long time (I mean, since the last Tesla earnings call).

    Admit it folks. Battery cars are expensive. They can't hold a candle to the quality of gas mobiles for the same price, despite Elon claiming < $100 per KWh battery cost and far fewer moving parts, easy to build, etc. etc.. If he has achieved that, then let's see the $35k car he promised, made comparably to other $35k cars. I'm even forgiving the difference due to ZEV credit that each car gets. Let's see it then.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2018
  17. Jun 5, 2018 #97
    Domenick

    Domenick Administrator

    2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD
    Dude. I was talking about the placement of the speedometer, not the entire car, as was pretty clear. The MINI of today also has center-mounted instrumentation as does the Prius. It's just to say that it's not unheard of.
     
  18. Jun 5, 2018 #98
    Domenick

    Domenick Administrator

    2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD
    You can always just get a magnetic phone holder and use your phone with Waze app too, if it's really an issue for you. I haven't heard of many Model 3 owners going this route though. As you say, and as I found, the speed's pretty easy to check with it being on the left partition of the screen.

     
  19. Jun 5, 2018 #99
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Dude, it's not my problem if you don't know what the word "candid" means in "candid photo". If you can't understand plain English, that's your problem, not mine. What I meant was it appeared to me the photo was taken by a forum member, and wasn't a publicity photo put out by the auto maker.

    You are certainly entitled to your negative opinion of Tesla's cars, but when you start getting nasty and defensive about the FUD you post and the fact that so much of it is total and complete B.S., that's on you, not on us. If you don't like being castigated for posting things you know aren't true, then just stop. There are plenty of negative things to say about Tesla and its cars which are actually true, so why do FUDsters use B.S. not as a last resort, but as your go-to choice?

    This sort of thing makes me suspect that Russian troll farms are at play here. There are plenty of reasons for Russia to hate Tesla. Perhaps the most important of those is that Russia's economy is so dependent on selling fossil fuel, and Tesla is doing more than any other company to reduce or end our dependence on fossil fuels.

    ​
     
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  20. Jun 5, 2018 #100
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I'm not familiar with "Waze app", but I guess you mean using an app on your smart phone to display an instrument panel for the car, and physically mounting the smart phone in the Model 3 where an instrument panel would be?

    I saw a lot of comments about doing that before Tesla actually started selling the TM3, but I haven't seen any photos or comments from people who have done that. But then, I haven't gone looking for them either; no doubt there is at least one discussion thread on the Tesla Motors Forum about that.

    Anyway, due to the dearth of comments on InsideEVs from actual owners who have done that sort of do-it-yourself aftermarket mod to their TM3, my guess is that a lot of those people who thought it would be a problem looking to the right for a speedometer reading and other instrument panel info, found in practice that they got used to it easily.

    ​
     
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