Bloomberg Model 3 tracker shows production crashing below 1000/week

Bloomberg's chart is not very accurate at predicting weekly production, as it has several times been over 3000, where the actual production has never been over 3000 in a 7 day period, it was very close right before the current shutdown. Bloomberg keeps making changes to their model, so the predictability is all over the place. Also Tesla has been playing with their vin registrations to create difficulty in tracking, they did the same thing with Model X early in production. For what it is worth, Tesla is between 26000, and 28000 total built so far on my spreadsheet. So Bloomberg is way out in front of my prediction. I am predicting production will increase dramatically in June, I am predicting Q2 production of Model 3 to be 28K, with around 20K delivered. I had previously predicted 25K deliveries (to which all the Tesla fan boys ridiculed me), but I am officially revising that Q2 Model 3 number downward to 20K Delivered.

 

That's certainly an understatement!

What I find truly appalling is the reports that they deliberately underestimated the production for some weeks to "make up for" overestimating it in previous weeks.

Apparently at Bloomberg, two wrongs do make a right!

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If you'll post a CSV showing dates and numbers, I'll see if I can make a credible S curve plot that follows the points. This may give us a clue to what we might see in the next 3-6 months.

My alternative is to use the GreenHybrid, dashboard reported numbers which I already have.

Bob Wilson

 

Sounds like nonsense to me. I would expect production to grow as market penetration increases, reaching a peak at some point and then falling, eventually, to zero as people stop buying them It's anything but constant.

I'm speaking generally here of course. I have no idea what Musk is playing at. He seems to be having a lot of difficulty making even quite modest numbers. But even he is, demonstrably, not exhibiting a constant level of production.

 

Agree with you, The Model 3 is living on hype right now. Without a doubt it is a good sedan, its just that the world is running away from sedans for the most part. If Tesla had built the Y before the 3, I would have a completely different outlook, but now Tesla is 3 years from introducing the Y in volume, and all the competition is targeting that massive mainstream segment. Tesla keeps referring to their waiting list, as the measure of desirability, but in fact, their reservations have taken a big hit. As more competition comes out with compelling vehicles, more and more of those reservations holders are going to jump to other vehicles. Starting with I-Pace, which the embargo on full test drive reviews is going to be lifted soon (possibly as early as Monday), which I expect we are going to see many favorable comparisons to Tesla vehicles. Jaguar is the first of many mainstream makers that are coming to the party, once people have the chance to see, touch, and drive these vehicles and directly compare them to Tesla, Tesla is in trouble. Musk talked about the pace of innovation in the last earnings call, I argue Tesla has now fallen way behind in innovation, and the S and X designs are becoming long in the tooth. Model 3 is still nice, but very expensive for what it is and in a dying segment. On a side note, I recently saw an article that Model 3 outsold BMW 3 in CA... The article did not mention that the BMW 3 is in the final year of a production run, and due for replacement in 6 months, or that the BMW 3 outsells the entire Tesla brand in the world. Haha! Go figure.

 

I saw that, but I am within 250 on model 3... 4%... Thats not bad for what is essentially an educated guess on my part. Total Tesla, I think I am within 2% of your estimates, I am happy with that. ~

 

Aside from the actual numbers involved, that is exactly what Tesla bashers said about the reservations vs. long-term demand for the Model S and Model X. Tesla short-selling anti-Tesla FUDsters need some new material; your old FUD is about worn out!

Fortunately for Tesla, in the real world, high initial demand is generally followed by long-term sustained demand. As the waiting time for the Model 3 comes down, the rate of new reservations will increase... exactly as has happened with the MS and MX.

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I agree with you, I am not sure the market can absorb 10K Model 3's per week on a sustained basis, even if Tesla is able to reach that level. That is basically double the USA total EV sales for all all cars so far this year rate, and you still have new competition, and in a dying segment. If this was the Y, Maybe, but the 3 will not be able to keep that level of interest for long. Another way to think about it is in 20K deliveries they have saturated the USA, with employee, and previous Tesla owners for the current config, and had to move on to Canada to keep the lines running at rate with only this config. Lets assume the P and AWD take the same 20K to saturate, and 20K are going for the low priced model. At 5K per week, that is just 1 month of production for each config to saturate the USA market. I will be surprised it Tesla can sustain 5K per week in deliveries in all of North America for the 2nd half of this year (I think they will oversupply demand)

Also Model S sales are down 10% in the first 5 months of 2018, over 2017 in the USA, Model X is hanging on, but not growing dramatically. I think as model 3 ramps, Model S sales are going to continue to suffer... Model S really needs a refresh.

 

Elon took over the company in 2007, less than a year before Tesla started selling the Roadster. The Model S was launched in 2012.

It would be best if you make at least some attempt to learn about a subject before venturing to "correct" those who are knowledgeable about a subject.

The Tesla Model S is the best-reviewed automobile of all time, garnering more "Best car of the year" awards than any other, and even earning several "best car ever made" reviews. But even before that, before the launch of the Model S, Tesla Motors became well-known in popular media, online, and in auto review magazines just from the Tesla Roadster, which suddenly changed the popular perception of electric cars from "punishment cars" which only a "green" activist would drive, to one that was sexy, cutting-edge, and desirable!

If Consumer Reports did not exist, that would have very little impact on the "buzz" about Tesla's cars. In fact, CS seems to need Tesla far more than Tesla needs CS, given the rather desperate way that CS keeps changing its ratings for Tesla cars, so they can have an excuse to run yet another Tesla-related article.

I guess this means you were not aware of Tesla Motors until rather recently, some years after the launch of the Model S and Model X. I watched the launch events for both of those cars live online... where were you?

The ignorance of anyone who tries to sell a Model 3 reservation on CraigsList would appear to match your own approximate level of ignorance. It clearly states in the fine print of a TM3 reservation that it cannot be transferred without written permission from Tesla Inc.

Dwindled down to the "crazy high demand" you were citing in the paragraph just above? You need to make up your mind on which lie to tell, dude.

A drooling idiot babbling nonsense would convey more information than your fact-free, feeble attempts here to tarnish Tesla's good name.

 

Instead of wasting time continuing to point out this troll's mendacity, I'll just link to the InsideEVs article on that very issue.

"Selling Your Tesla Model 3 Reservation – Is It Possible?"

Anyone actually tempted to do this should be sure to read the comments. All the comments.

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Typical anti-Tesla FUD, from the manure pile dumped on Seeking Alpha every day.

A 23% cancellation rate is slightly lower than the 25% cancellation rate reported for the Model S when it was new, and is certainly nothing to worry about.

What's bizarre is that there is a current InsideEVs news article trumpeting a 23% rate of refunds -- which of course is the same as the cancellation rate. Talking about that 23% rate as if it has lately increased, when 23% is what was reported months ago!

The fact that the reported Model 3 cancellation rate has not increased at all, even after repeated delays, is great news for Tesla supporters!

 

My experience with 'percentages' is they are often used to hide what the actual measurements are showing. So let's take an example from this posting:

• "refunded almost a quarter of Model 3 reservations - so if the widely reported +400,000 deposits is accurate, that means ~300,000 reservations remaining.
• "8% configured" - so using +400,000 reservations, ~32,000 already produced.
• "paying refunds faster than new Model 3 deposits" - the problem is we don't know the base numbers. For example, refunding 100 deposits while gaining 50 deposit means a 50 * $1000 ~= $50,000 loss, a rounding error.

A lay report could be an honest misunderstanding of math, innumeracy. So I checked the reference and found true source: https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/04/tesla-faces-accelerating-rate-of-model-3-refunds/

. . .
In August 2017, Tesla disclosed the gross and net Model 3 reservations, revealing a refund rate of 12 percent. Our analysis aligns with Tesla’s reported figures, also finding that 12 percent of deposits had been refunded at that time.
. . .
Like refunds, our analysis shows configurations are also on the rise. In April, the number of configurations nearly tripled month-over-month among Model 3 reservation holders. These findings may exclude some customers who used different payment methods for the deposit and configuration.

A rising rate of configurations sounds like a happy ending for Tesla fans, but this story has a twist—configurations aren’t necessarily for Model 3s. Some impatient reservation holders are purchasing a more expensive Tesla instead. The Model S and X each start at double the price of a baseline Model 3, making the upsell an ideal outcome for Tesla.​

When I read the source article, interesting but not a 'hair on fire' report. Production delays and a market that has not remained static, there are going to be folks who make a new plan and get their deposit back. For example, the Leaf, Bolt, and new I-Pace are options as well as those who upscaled to Model S or X.

Bob Wilson

ps. We own two, plug-in hybrids and no interest in any pure BEV.

 

When I look at the charts, and see + or - 100K cancels, and only 25K + or - bought Tesla's If I am in Fremont I am going to church and pray both trends do not continue at the same pace.