Article on supposed Honda EV expectations

Thanks for your fully-explained response. I've greatly enjoyed my rental experiences when the car was a Mazda 3, so I always ask for one. You've chosen a great complement for your Clarity.

I'll be trading 20 years of driving with 3 pedals in my gen-1 Honda Insights for essentially 1 pedal next year when I get an electric MINI. It won't have anywhere near your Mazda's non-stop range, but it will share the go-kart feeling. The Clarity will be the long-range car in our family.

 

We've had two Prius cars, now the Clarity. I consider a hybrid to be a step back these days and wouldn't buy one again. Certainly an ICE vehicle is also off my radar. The Prius came close to 50 mpg but the Clarity, on Solar roof power, is over 100 mpg equivalent and far less cost to drive. My next car will be a BEV but I'm also waiting for better battery technology. I think we will all look back on this present state of battery technology as a stepping stone, and not a very good one.

To me today's batteries are too heavy, too expensive, too quick to deteriorate, and take too long to charge.

I have no idea how long it will be until EVs outsell ICE vehicles, but I do believe even with the current battery technology the world wants this transition and it appears governments are going to be the main stimulus driving sales in that direction.

 

On a pseudo-related-but-not-really note...Indianapolis’s BlueIndy electric car share program is being shut down after 4 years of attempting to make it succeed, due to being not economically viable:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.indystar.com/amp/4259749002

and an editorial about it, referencing the mentality here in Indianapolis, which I fully agree with: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.indystar.com/amp/27092430

Like the author of the editorial, I was always fascinated that this was a Republican program, which the Democrats opposed lol. So weird. Just another little indicator of how different it is here compared to CA...and how dysfunctional government is no matter how you twist it.

I looked into using BlueIndy parking spots for my Clarity at one time, for our semi frequent visits downtown for dinners or theatre or whatever. Looked like a royal PITA and too expensive to sign up and use it, so I passed, paid to park in a garage, and just let my engine kick on if I ran out of range...

 

After the batteries get better, I can't imagine how the grid will keep up. How could the grid support a charging station that can simultaneously charge 16 100-kWh cars in 10 minutes? The charging station would have to deliver close to 10 million Watts!

 

Anyway I firmly believe this Indianapolis Auto Show to be a microcosm of the US car market in general. People want what they want, fuel mileage? Who cares? the most popular cars and trucks had MPG ratings in the teens...or were of the HD variety which are exempt from even being measured. And in general, around Indiana for sure, not one person at that well-attended auto show wanted anything to do with EVs or PHEVs. It appears to me that it will take a long long time to turn this ship, and the ICE is far from dead. Please don't shoot the messenger. I'm just sharing my observations...[/QUOTE]

I think everything revolves around gas prices. About 10 or 11 years ago when I bought my first car in America (an SUV), gas was crawling to $5 and people concerned with Saudi and the whole "Arab Spring" Middle East stranglehold on us were crazy dumping "gas guzzling" SUVs and rooting for hybrids and dreaming with electric cars (remember that documentary?). I got my SUV cheap (Mazda CX-7 Turbocharged) on 2009. Then the whole avalanche of hybrids, PHEV and EVs for one moment seemed headed to take over. Then fracking and keystone happened and gas prices plummeted without regards of even a nuke exploding in the Middle East. So here we are back with our SUV appetite and the C-Maxes and Volts of this world going the way of the Dodo... However, here in SoCal (yes I live in CA but I consider myself rather a practical guy and not a zealot) my Clarity on EV mode still gives me 21 miles per dollar against 15 miles per dollar on HV mode. (Disclaimer, this is with Costco gasoline at $3.19 last time I filled up on 12/20. Today I saw it at $4.29 on a Shell). But yes, it's still California...

 

Agree completely. It’s all about gas prices. And with everything you mentioned that occurred 10ish years ago, especially with regards to new drilling methods and US and market forces in general essentially proving/taking the stance that “we no longer need OPEC to provide our oil appetite”, I think gas prices will continue to remain low and stable for a very long time...

Buy political change tends to mess with stuff. And it always changes. So we will see.

FWIW my Costco gas price has been stuck at about $2.29 for months now...

 

I do think gas prices are one of the key drivers. But I imagine a transition of acceptance as people begin to learn of the advantages of owning and driving an electric vehicle.

Eventually owners of electric cars will tell their neighbors, friends, and relatives about the benefits. That alone won't cause a major change, but the word will get out about lower costs to operate, the actual figures on reduced air pollution, charging at home, no oil changes, tune ups, extended break pad life, quiet rides, instant torque, rapid acceleration. These things will proliferate through the population over a few short years.

If an ICE centered car shopper enters a car dealer showroom today they'll not learn much about electric vehicles. The buyer may not know anybody who owns an EV. But further down the line they will have several friends or relatives who have made the switch to EV and are happy with their decision and purchase. Its just going to take time.

It won't be one thing that causes the transition. It will be lower vehicle prices, more charge stations, incentives, an informed public, and more.

 

That reads very much like the attitude of those who yelled "GET A HORSE!" at Ford Model T drivers back in the 1910s and early 1920s.

Perhaps you need to read up on the history of disruptive tech revolutions, and how they progress at an accelerating pace which at first seems slow, but later astonishingly rapid. For example, New York City went from a city almost entirely served by horse-drawn vehicles to one almost entirely served by motor vehicles in the space of 13 years.

Do you think it will happen slower with the EV revolution? Well, I don't. I'll be very surprised if, 10 years from now, the majority (more than 50%) of new cars sold in first-world countries are not BEVs.

Those statements are not intended to be derogatory in any way, just some observations from a non-Californian -- a Kansas boy -- who spends quite a bit of time here.

 

Yeah, Japan isn't a good example of the way the international market is going. Japan has always been energy-poor, lacking in oil and coal, and since the Fukushima disaster they've permanently shut down nearly all their nuclear power plants, producing a chronic electricity shortage.

Japan has in the past shown the ability to do long-range planning to manage their resources, but here they've really fallen on their faces. Japan should be both working hard on developing a new generation of nuclear power plants, ones which -- like NuScale's small modular reactors -- are truly fail-safe, which current reactors aren't; and at the same time, they should be in the midst of a massive build-out of solar farms in the uninhabited, mountainous regions of their islands and also building massive offshore wind farms.

Sadly, none of that is taking place at all. Instead, Japan is foolishly providing massive subsidies to hydrogen-powered fuel cell cars -- "fool cell" cars -- which are a dead-end technology.

If you want to see where first-world countries in general are going, look at Europe. The USA took an early lead in the EV revolution, but under the current backward presidential administration it's lagging behind. That won't last long, fortunately, and soon we'll be competing with Europe to accelerate into the 21st century, with gasmobiles rapidly becoming obsolete, and every auto maker competing to produce as many compelling, long-range BEVs as possible.

Those auto makers which don't, those like Honda, won't survive the EV revolution. Just as with every disruptive tech revolution, the market leaders at the end will show some new faces and will be missing some old ones.

 

I agree.

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In the early days of the Model T, people likewise couldn't imagine a nation served by paved highways going nearly everywhere, and cities whose roads were entirely paved and served well with parking lots and public parking spaces for automobiles on the streets.

Consider industrial power use. A single electric induction furnace can draw up to 42 MW -- that's 42 million watts! And a steel mill may have several such furnaces.

So 10 MW charging stations shouldn't faze any electrical utility planning for the future. It's just a matter of upgrading the grid, and that's the business they are engaged in every day.

The amount of global energy use has been growing exponentially for generations. Those who think that's going to stop, need to look at the lessons history teaches us.

 

50%? I will be shocked if this comes even close to true. The bump from horse to car swept the country in droves because it was a full blown revolution in type/speed/distance of personal transportation. Such a revolution cannot be realistically compared to simply changing a fuel source to accomplish essentially the same travel results we are all accustomed to already.

Much like the self driving revolution That was predicted 10 years ago and isn’t exactly sweeping the world...I just see simply too many roadblocks get need to be overcome first before widespread adoption of EVs can be a reality. I’ll go with 20% as a reasonable guess. US may be lower...we are just too sprawled out. But I can’t see it anywhere close to 50. And back on topic...that’s what Honda likely sees too for the next decade. Tesla is obviously on the other side.

But again, ‘till my crystal ball comes outta the shop I admit I might be entirely wrong! Someone bump this in ten years and let me know how it all panned out!!

 

Well we'll see, won't we?

You're ignoring the rather large difference in price between powering a gasmobile with gasoline and powering a BEV with electricity. You're also ignoring the increasingly stringent limits on emissions, which will continue to drive up the price of gasmobiles even as prices for BEVs continue to fall.

Yes, because that wasn't a realistic claim. It was based on wishful thinking.

Contrariwise, there are no technological barriers to BEVs replacing gasmobiles, only economic ones. That is already changing; economy of scale is bringing down the price of both batteries and BEVs, while prices for gasmobiles continue to rise. That's obviously an unsustainable trend for gasmobile sales.

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Not ignoring any of that. As for the “large difference” in fuel price...there are some on this very forum who have chosen to not plug in their Clarity PHEV anymore because it’s cheaper to run on gas than electric! So the difference is not that great, and it’s very regional.

But there are many additional forces at play you haven’t mentioned. As the grid will require substantial upgrades to support this revolution, electricity will become more expensive. As gas demand falls, its price will drop or stay low. As demand for more batteries rise, price may also rise, or the rate of price drop will at least slow. All of these economic forces will slow the process of change. Raw material shortages caused by leaps in battery demand will likely cause production issues as back orders at times.

As for environmental/emissions regs? Trump administration has actually been rolling them back and relaxing them. In the event he gets another term? It could slow things down further as well.

Lots to consider. I know it’s not simple. And I know full well that ICEs will eventually become obsolete. No debate there. But how soon? Based on original story, this topic is really about just this one upcoming decade. And Honda and I both really think it will take much longer to make such an dramatic change in the overall car/truck market than you and some others believe.

 

When central air conditioners were installed in businesses and homes in the U.S. during the 1960s and 1970s, leading to a rapid rise in demand for electricity, did that result in a significant rise in electricity prices?

No, it didn't. Similarly, I don't see that a soaring demand for electricity from charging EVs will lead to a substantial rise in prices. It just means the grid needs to be upgraded and more power plants need to be built. That is of course what is already happening; it just needs to happen somewhat faster, as it did in that earlier era.

Speaking of unrealistic predictions: The idea that the Orange Twit(terer)-in-Chief has a realistic chance of winning another term. He won the last one only by a statistical fluke -- unexpected wins in two swing States by less than a 1% margin -- and his support among independents is now significantly lower. It's mathematically almost impossible for him to win a second term, despite much hand-wringing by Democrats.

I think we've both staked out our positions here pretty firmly. Let's wait and see what happens, hmmm?

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Tesla is dealing with this issue by installing battery storage - so the batteries recharge the cars and the grid recharges the batteries.

 

That approach may work on a small scale, but it will take some very big local batteries to be ready to supply another 10 megawatts every 10 minutes all day long.

 

While it may be entirely probable that 10

Yes it's entirely probable that 16 100-kWh cars would be at a single charging station. I caution people from making the mistake my best friend made when we conversed on this subject. That being just because 10 million 100-kWh cars are on the roads in the future they won't all need to be fully charged from empty every day. Most drivers still only travel about 40-50 miles per day so they will be more likely to charge every few days.

I don't know if the grid will be able to handle the load. All I know is with our solar roof we have unloaded the grid by a little bit, and even feed some into the grid most of the year. Our Clarity isn't a load on the grid, and even if we were to upgrade to a 250 mile range BEV we'd still follow the same pattern of charging at home most of the time, putting about 50-70 miles a day average.

 

Although I really like my Clarity, there are several shortcomings that must be addressed before I consider full EV. For me, Honda’s plan seems well thought out.

First, the range of a battery powered vehicle must improve, particularly if used in cold weather areas. During fall and winter here in New England, the battery’s range drops by nearly 40% ( more, if my wife is with me and we maintain cabin heat at 70-72 deg F). My commute to my work is about 17 miles, but I nearly deplete the battery each day during winter month. Some EVs claim a range in excess of 300 miles —but that’s misleading for half of the year as those of us living north of the Sunbelt can attest to.

When my wife drives she doesn’t want to be fumbling for the sport-hybrid buttons. We invariably run out of charge and must deal with the high-pitched, low power ICE. Unless I actively manage and monitor battery levels.

2. Drawback: The lengthy time to recharge and the lack of accessible, convenient charging stations are unacceptable hindrances to most Americans. It’s kind of a chicken and egg situation with the infrastructure needing to be filled out but not enough demand to warrant the huge investment. I

3. Drawback; The subsidies masking the true cost of EV ownership remains a wildcard. Most of us benefited from the tremendous subsidies in the form of tax credits and state incentives. Meanwhile, our limited consumption of gasoline means we are not paying our fair share of taxes needed for transportation infrastructure and maintenance of our roadways. Many people on this forum comment that they re-charge for free at work. This will almost certainly end as the number of electron leaches becomes more noticeable than the inconspicuous vampire trolling they currently enjoy.

4. Ponder this: The cost of “clean energy “ electricity will rise, as the cost per joules shifts from gasoline to electrons. It’s pretty straight forward economics—increased demand will cause prices to rise unless the energy required to turn into electrons can be supplied at a price comparable to the one being replaced. The current low cost of gasoline is a result of the technological revolutions in the oil fields and the opening of areas previously restricted by prior administrations. The electricity market is distorted in the Northeast by state government mandates requiring increased minimums of green alternatives that are more expensive to bring online (especially wind). Here in CT, for example, the legislature enacted “alternative energy” mandates that create the demand minimum to nurture the alternatives. Unfortunately we end up with offshore wind farms that, when they go online, will be guaranteed production rates far above the market—which is passed on to the consumer in the form of the most expensive electric rates in the country and, ironically, higher solar (PV) installation prices

The tragedy is that all of this well-intended legislation was done because of the belief that it will lessen the impact on climate change. They didn’t foresee the Paris Accords permitting China and India to grow their carbon emissions through the year 2030( or, GE building giant windmills that,because of their construction and transportation requirements, will have a greater carbon footprint over their life cycle than the energy the windmill produced to replace the fossil fuel. New power plant? Natural gas pipeline?! NIMBY!

This “gotta do something !” knee jerk response has delivered electric rates far above the national average, making it 25% cheaper to use my gas-powered ICE side of my Clarity rather than the electrons produced by my solar panels.

Obviously, I have diverged quite a ways from the original poster’s skewering of Honda’s business plan. I think the CEO is more aware and savvy of the world auto market than some that are critical. Honda and Toyota will make little commuter EVs for Europe, where governments require them, but will continue with hybrid innovation that results in better gas mileage and, at the same time, preserve the range and convenience that elude the lithium battery EV.

I’m content to wait a while longer. I’d rather have that Honda EV of tomorrow than the lineup needed to satisfy Europe’s mandates in 2020. I was wowed by the clarity when it first came out and I was in early adopter but, though I still like it, i’m also more aware of his shortcomings vis-à-vis EV. Then again, that’s why I chose a lease over a purchase.



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On Christmas day we drove the Clarity from the Bay Area to Las Vegas. It is a 560 mile route with two modest mountain passes. Doing these long trips makes you think about eventual adoption of BEVs or PHEVs. We left with a full tank and filled up twice during each leg. We made it in 8 hours with no significant traffic. The extra fuel stop of Clarity may have added a couple of minutes to travel time (each 5 gallon fill up takes about a minute!) We also did long stretches at 79 mph (the speed limit is 70 mph for the most part). Doing the same trip with a long range Tesla would have been a 9.5 hour trip minimum, with at least two 85% charging sessions. Also I couldn't find a convenient charging station to top off the battery during the entire 4 day trip.

Driving back, we got stranded in a snow storm and heavy traffic around Mountain pass and later Tehachapi pass. At Tehachapi it looked like we could spend the night in the car (eventually we made it to Bakersfield around midnight) and I was thinking if being stranded in a BEV would be a problem. Having a full tank of gas brought some peace of mind anyway.

I also drove by Tesla supercharger sites at Harris Ranch (this is one of the largest ones in the nation) and Andersen pea soup. Although it was not a peak travel day, both sites were very busy, and I thought if a significant percentage of cars on the road become BEVs, they will have to convert most of their big parking lots to charging stations.

I was also in several European countries recently (France, Netherlands and Belgium), and between the diesel clatter and sooth I didn't see as many BEVs as expected. The main problem is that nobody has a designated parking spot in large cities, and every charging stall that I ever saw was occupied all the time.

I also believe the current market doesn't reflect the true cost of BEV driving. The BEV charging plans and various incentives mask the real cost of these cars, and at some point we have to pay the real cost which is much closer to ICE cars.

My point is that there are still many issues with BEVs, and unless there is a leap in battery technology, I don't think we will see the sudden shift that some BEV optimist are expecting. If I was going to bet on one technology for the near future, it would be hybrids and PHEVs. I think in Europe hybrids and PHEVs will replace a significant percentage of diesel cars in a year or two. A good PHEV will have 90% of the benefits of a BEV with none of the draw backs.