A brief EV history

Discussion in 'General' started by bwilson4web, Dec 17, 2017.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Recently I was somewhat surprised that the next Leaf would have ~150 mile range. So I used fueleconomy.gov to plot the history:
    • The next Leaf will fill the gap between short range and long range EVs.
    • Surprised how 200 miles appears to be the lower threshold for long range EVs.
    It may make sense to multiply the range times the annual units to get an idea of how many potential EV miles are added each year. There should be an optimum range that maximizes the total fleet EV miles per year.

    Bob Wilson
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  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I don't understand the graph. The X and Y axes are not labeled; what do they represent?

    Note there was no real improvement in range between the 2013 Leaf and the 2014-2015 Leaf. Nissan just cynically removed the ability to charge to 80%, so the EPA's range tests would be forced to use a 100% charge in all cases instead of the previous rating, which was based on an average between an 80% charge and a 100% charge.

    So the EPA's range rating increased from 75 to 84 miles even though there was no real improvement in the car's range; it was just a change to how range was measured.

    Discussion here: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=15526http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=15526
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2017
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Y - US EPA range in miles
    X - sequence number within each year

    Bob Wilson
  5. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    What is a sequence number?
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I sort the range which is the y-axis. The sequence number is an index for the x-axis.

    Bob Wilson
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  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I hate to keep asking the same question, but I have no idea what kind of data the graph is actually supposed to be showing. Perhaps you could explain in more general terms what the data represents, and what we are supposed to be seeing?
  9. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    I think maybe it is supposed to be a stand in for an EV on the market. Like for 2017, 17 or 18 might represent a Bolt EV for instance.

    I would guess this is to show how many models are on the market in a given year.

    I can’t tell for sure, that’s just what it seems like to me.
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    x axis - the number of EV models in that year, each model is one data point
    y axis - the EPA listed range for each model
    • 2011 - four EVs with maximum range under 100 miles
    • 2013 - 14 EVs with 1 having maximum range ~260 miles and 1 under 50 miles
    • 2015 - 18 EVs with 6 having over 250 miles
    • 2017 - 29 EVs with 3 having over 300 miles
    • all years there appears to be a range band 150-200 miles with only 1 out of 29 in that range
    It takes time to count the EVs and ranges from the EPA web site. So I only plotted every other year. So what we see is the growth of EV models and their ranges. I was hoping someone else might have done an EV models vs range but couldn't find it with Goggle so I did it.

    Bob Wilson
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  11. JyChevyVolt

    JyChevyVolt Active Member

    We can predict the range by looking at ZEV credit.
    1 ZEV = 100 miles
    2 ZEV = 125 miles
    3 ZEV = 200 miles
    4 ZEV = 300 miles

    1 ZEV = sub 75 mile PHEV
    1.3 ZEV = 75+ mile PHEV

    Notice all those EVs with 125 miles.
    Ford focus electric
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  13. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Ah, thank you!
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  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Trying to understand the ranges:

    1 ZEV = 100 miles
    1 ZEV = sub 75 mile PHEV
    1.3 ZEV = 75+ mile PHEV

    Where did the 1.3 ZEV come from?
    What is the minimum ZEV range?

    1 ZEV = 1 - 124 miles (??)
    2 ZEV = 125 - 199 miles
    3 ZEV = 200 - 299 miles
    4 ZEV = 300+ miles

    Bob Wilson
  15. JyChevyVolt

    JyChevyVolt Active Member

    For 2017, the Volt received 1.3 ZEV credit and the Bolt EV received 4 ZEV credits. For 2018, the Volt gets 1 ZEV credit and the Bolt EV gets 3 credits. There was a rush to sell as many Bolt EV as possible in October.

    The document does not specify minimum range hence all those BMW PHEV with 10 AER.

    Also, no travel rule will mean, manufacturers are force to sell BEV/PHEV in other CARB States.

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  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    What I wanted just showed up:

    It was one many useful charts in:

    I recommend viewing this several times to fully understand not only the information but also the reasons why. Just understand you can't drive a 'PowerPoint' car, it has to exist so patience is needed.

    Bob Wilson
  17. JyChevyVolt

    JyChevyVolt Active Member

    The chart missing Kia Niro EV at 238 miles, Hyundai Kona EV at 240 miles.

    EVs have less moving parts but millions more complex circuit.

    Battery cost are going down but the material cost us going up. Unless a breakthrough, battery cost might stagnant.

    Car are getting more expensive because of safety requirements and technology package.

    In 10 years, we might not own cars.

    Worldwide, we are at 1.2% of new vehicles sold.

    200 miles is not enough in cold winter climate.

    Norway is a special case because the demand is created by punishment for owning petrol.

    He sidesteps the recharging time which is unacceptable for majority. Hopefully, new battery technology solves this problem.

    By 2030, owning a vehicle might be strange. If Uber/Lyft can charge pennies why would anyone own a vehicle, you can't drive yourself. Insurance companies will force autonomous on us. Auto insurance industry will crash because accident would be rare.
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Like most 'future' talks, there are more than a few assumptions that might fail. For example, there are other elements beside lithium needed for a battery. Still it gives one roadmap and curiously that '200 mile range' showed up in my survey of USA EVs.

    Bob Wilson
  19. JyChevyVolt

    JyChevyVolt Active Member

    200+ mile is 2nd gen EVs. Bigger, cheaper batteries that charge faster will kill the personal auto industry.

    GM can sell Lyft their EV with autonomous for $200,000 or to Bob Wilson for $20,000. Once people start crashing into these $200,000 dashcam cars, the insurance rate will skyrocket. That 20,000 EV will cost $20,000/year to insure.

    10,000 autonomous cars driving the speed limit on the highway and people trying to pass them. You thought Prius on the fast lane was frustrating, you ain't seen nothing yet.
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018

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