Tesla’s Cybertruck pickup truck Unveiled This Evening (11/21)

It will be live streamed, will try find the link to post


What to expect from Tesla’s Cybertruck pickup truck event?
The long-awaited Tesla pickup truck will be revealed Thursday night
https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/20/20973789/tesla-cybertruck-announcement-rumors-specs-what-to-expect-elon-musk

On Thursday night at 11PM ET, Elon Musk will appear onstage at the Tesla Design Center in Los Angeles to reveal the product he’s most excited about: Tesla’s first electric pickup truck. And while the CEO has teased the truck on and off for six years, with increased hype at every turn, it’s still not super clear what’s in store. Unlike, say, the Model Y reveal earlier this year, Musk has played this one somewhat close to the chest.


Specs and price
One thing Musk has given a ballpark for is the Cybertruck’s starting price. In June 2019, the Tesla CEO said the truck would start at “less than $50,000,” putting it between the starting price of the Model 3 (currently $39,400) and the Model S (currently $79,990) sedans. It’s also just about the same price as the long-range version of the Model Y crossover SUV ($48,000) that will ship in late 2020, though Tesla ultimately plans to sell a cheaper, shorter-range model for around $39,000.

“It’s got to be, like, $49,000 starting price max. Ideally less,” Musk said of the truck earlier this year. “It just can’t be unaffordable. It’s got to be something that’s affordable.”

 

https://insideevs.com/reviews/364925/tesla-pickup-truck-price-specs-more/

 

Hmm looks a little more like jetson, not to impressed by the shape need to see functionality. You can order now.

 

Robocop has already gotten hold of the CyberQuad that you may have wanted Don't be surprised if you are 1,194,000 back for that.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/23/elon-musk-says-tesla-has-received-146000-orders-for-its-cybertruck.html

I know people here are suspicious of CNBC, but the report is 146,000 orders to date, that is well over 48 hours. And please note, the asking amount was $100, not $500 like before and so many people including @Re-Volted and me put our money down, though we may not keep it if promises made are not fulfilled.

Also this interview with a KBB expert highlights some of the same concerns I have expressed including production using stainless steel and the time lines.
Take it for what is is worth


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/22/teslas-new-cybertruck-seemed-incomplete-kelly-blue-books-muzio.html

 

My bad, it was not $500, it was $1000 for Model 3, and Tesla had about 455,000 reservations. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3) I am sure you remember this as we have discussed this many times in discussion threads. Now it is coming back to me. Tesla from 2016 to about 2018 had about $400 million dollars in interest free loans at @$1000 a pop. A lot of these reservations vanished quickly and Model 3 was being sold to all comers by about 4th quarter 2018

In this go around, they have collected about $15 million in deposits. The only reason I put my deposit is that it is $100. Anything more, I would not have put it in.

I look at it a different way. That some number cruncher in Tesla did some calculations and possibly came up with say about 10,000 reservations if they charged $1000 or something like that (I am making up these numbers, I do not have access to their data). Their way of maximizing the number of reservations was to make it as low as possible. 146,000 reservations has oomph to it, 10,000 does not. I think it was a calculated move to may the reservation despoit low, not that they cannot do anything with free money. If they could have charged $250 or $500 or $1000 why would they not have done it? It is a question of supply and demand.

The MiniSE has received about 70,000 interests, Taycan about 20,000. I am not sure Mach-e who have a convoluted reservation system, have received many deposits. Rivian has not published their numbers, but they are at higher price point and require a $1000 deposit and seem to have a fairly robust backlog. None of these vehicles have the cachet of Tesla, or a track record in EVs. Compared to all of that, 146,000 is an impressive number. What I am trying to point out is the following:

1. Compared to the Model 3, these numbers are not that impressive, in spite of the low cost and low deposit. It is relative, in itself it is a big number, however compared to Model 3 is seems a little lower.
   
2. It is the $100 deposit that caused it to be such a large number. If they had asked for a larger deposit, the number would have been lower. I was expecting that it would be much higher.
   
3. You believe that $100 deposit is a sign that Tesla does not need the money. I think that the $100 deposit was to maximize the number of reservations that Tesla got. In other words, I believe that Tesla weighed the alternatives and believed that the publicity of a large reservation number was of more importance to them, given the upcoming competition. They may not be as desperate for money, but if they could have got another $400 million in interest free loans, they would have.
   
4. Tesla may also have factored in that many of these reservations may disappear over a period of time, just like Model 3s did. So a higher initial number may sound more appealing.

So I believe that Tesla priced the car low and took a smaller reservation fee, to get to as a high number for reservations. I am skeptical that this number will hold up for long or that price of the Cybertruck will not move upwards as we get to the actual delivery time. And I am not sure that late 2021 timeline will be adhered to, based on the past history of Tesla timelines and of course some conjecture. You can discount my thoughts, you can call me biased, you can say whatever you want. Only time will tell if I am right or wrong.

 

It is easy to dismiss me as a Tesla basher, which I am not. On more than one ocassion I have posted in favor of Tesla, when it was attached by others. As I have mentioned I have a reservation in.

I am curious as to where you got the number that 74% of Model 3 reservations were converted into orders. The only source I could find (and I know that you are going to challenge the source as being anti-Tesla and I know seekingalpha.com has a bias against Tesla, but I could not find another source that talks about it) is that there was a 30% conversion rate. I was about 200,000 on the list and within a few weeks of me being offered to configure the car, Tesla threw it open to everyone else. And I got my offer about 2 months after my friend who was about 50,000 on the list. So I am very surprised at the 74% conversion rate. So if you have other sources that show the conversion rate was much higher, I would look at them and be prepared to stand corrected. And if the conversion rate is around 30 to 40%, it is still a good number.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4186995-model-3-backlog-conversion-ratio-30-percent-challenges-teslas-growth-narrative

 

I would suggest that you stop the snarkiness. I have come out openly for Tesla and even posted articles complementary of Tesla. Yes I have called out Tesla when I felt it needed to be done but have always been fair. I know you like to drip in sarcasm, sometimes, you go too far. If you have noticed, I try and be factual to utmost, whether you believe it or not.

Second I read this article and it says this also "About one in every four Model 3 orders is canceled, Gill said, double the rate from a year ago.". So it was. according to this article, 12.5% the year before and 25% in the period that the article talks about . That appears to be 37.5% to me unless I am reading it wrong. And there was no information on cancellations after July 2018. I agree that the article is a little fuzzy on the overall numbers. You may not like seeking alpha (and I do agree with you they exhibit a bias against Tesla) but they are the only site I found that directly addressed the conversion rate. They put a number down of 30%. Based on my experiences, I think it was a lot lower than your 74%, but I guess you believe your calculations are right. Again, if you provide me the basis for your calculations, I am a reasonable person and will acknowledge that I was mistaken. And your number was thrown with such authority, that I believed that you were quoting from other sources. And if you notice, I have not talked about Tesla S as I have no information on their conversation rates.

And I for one cancelled it in November of last year and had held it on till then. So my cancellation occurred after this article and I cannot have been the only one to do so. Again, I do not want to hypothesize what the actual number of cancellations are as I have one source says 70% cancellation but there is no corroboration. And you provided a source which says 24% but that is for the period under reporting.

I however will say that 74% seems to be very high and, pardon me if I do not buy into it without further evidence. And if you remember, I would not take David Greens word for it, when he threw out numbers. And hence I would like to see some validation for 74%. This CNN article does not provide the validation.

And I would imagine if it was that high, Tesla would be shouting it out from the rooftops.

 

From InsideEV, here are the sales numbers for 2018 for Model 3.





Here is a an article that says that reservation system was dropped in July 2018 when a total of 38000 cars were sold. I remember by August 2018, people could walk into the showroom and get deliveries within a week.

As per the numbers in EV, a total of about 251,000 Model 3s were sold from the beginning till September 2019 in the US. There may have been some reservation holders who waited for the base version of this year, but most people who bought it after say August of 2018 did not have a reservation or need one.

Even if you make the assumption (which has no grounding in reality and would defy logic) that all these 251,000 odd sales (from Jan 2018 to Sept 2019), were to people with reservations, and there were over 455,000 reservations (https://techcrunch.com/2018/06/28/tesla-opens-model-3-reservations/) , it still does not add up to 74%. And most people after July 2018 did not need reservations.

It is no brainer to assume that most if not all the cars sold till July 2018 (about 38,000) were to reservation holders. For sake of argument, let us assume another 62,000 cars were sold to reservation holder after July 2018, for a total of 100,000 cars that were sold to reservation holders. 100,000 out of 455,000 is just 21%. Even if it were 150,000 cars (that is well into 2019 and seems on the high side) that were sold to reservation holders, it is still about 33% conversion rate.

@Pushmi-Pullyu you can attack me personally, but I cannot (based on the numbers I have crunched) come up with how you got to a 74% conversion rate. It seems to be in the 20-30% range, so seeking alpha was not out of the ball park. Again, I am not a supporter for that site. And if we extend that to the cybertruck, a 20-30% conversion seems more in line with recent history. I cannot see it being 74 or 75% for Cybertruck and I would rather wait and see and will not take your word for it.

Also you say the reservation system has recently become meaningless. It became meaningless in July 2018, when only 38,000 cars were sold. If they did have 74% conversion rate and a backlog of 455,000 orders, then why throw it open to all comers a few months after launch, when less than 40,000 units were sold?

https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/10/17556948/tesla-model-3-orders-now-available-north-america

Tesla drops reservation system for Americans and Canadians looking to buy their Model 3



People who want the $35,000 base model will have to keep waiting

By Shoshana Wodinsky Jul 10, 2018, 7:08pm EDT