Any future forecasters out there ? Oil crisis in Saudi Arabia - will people switch to the Clarity ?

Discussion in 'Clarity' started by 4sallypat, Sep 17, 2019.

To remove this ad click here.

  1. 4sallypat

    4sallypat Active Member

    My thinking in Southern California - if oil keeps going up and gas prices rises from current $4/gallon to over $5 - we will see a huge uptick in PHEV, BEV, FCV, and alternative fuel car sales.

    Anyone else care to speculate ??
     
  2. To remove this ad click here.

  3. SThomas219

    SThomas219 Active Member

    That's what happened back in the 70's when OPEC shut off the supply. People went to smaller cars and motorcycles. Of course, back then the cars were not that great. Today, EV and PHEV vehicles would become those cars and they are much better in build quality, safety and tech.

    Problem is, dealers do not have much inventory to move except maybe Toyota with the Prius. Takes months to get an order built and shipped to the US from the Japanese and South Korean manufacturers. Tesla, for those who can afford it, might reap most of the benefit in the short term. They are the only US based manufacturer who has the ability to build in a timely fashion.

    Maybe GM can ramp up Bolt EV production, too. We are still limited in what's available in models and inventory. VW, Ford and others are still a year or two out from volume production for the US.
     
    4sallypat likes this.
  4. Sandroad

    Sandroad Well-Known Member

    Here in Michigan, if there is any shift in sales due to a gas price increase, it will have to be to smaller vehicles. There are a few hybrids stocked, but pretty much no PHEV or BEV vehicles.
     
    4sallypat likes this.
  5. Richard_arch74

    Richard_arch74 Active Member

    I would bet that CA buyers will look more favorably on BEV's and PHEV's. With your percentage of oil imports being so high, around 70%, and of those imports more than half coming from Saudia Arabia, you will be paying much more for gas than the rest of us.
    Here in central Mi. you can still get gas for $2.33/gal. That won't move anyone here to change to EV's (even if you could get one here).

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Inside EVs mobile app
     
    4sallypat likes this.
  6. Higher taxes make gas and diesel more expensive in CA, to some extent, than other states. Maybe some “special blends” add to the cost as well.

    Look at the number of pick up trucks and SUV’s being sold compared to EV’s. More BEV’s and PHEV’s could mean less consumption, more available product and lower prices for petrol. What then? More taxes?

    Hydrogen supplies have been quite thin due to a calamity and a hydrogen production facility. Most hydrogen is currently derived from fossil fuels, by the way.

    Has anyone given any thought to a trade dispute leading to a reduced supply of lithium batteries from China?
     
    4sallypat likes this.
  7. To remove this ad click here.

  8. Richard_arch74

    Richard_arch74 Active Member

    4sallypat likes this.
  9. Ray B

    Ray B Active Member

    I can recommend that those who are good at predictions can join a site started by Phil Tetlock (who wrote Superforecasting) called the Good Judgment Open (https://www.gjopen.com/) There are plenty of people on news channels with opinions but nobody ever follows up to grade their predictions afterwards. This site has a bunch of questions of events (current and upcoming) that you can predict the outcome, and once the outcome is clear everyone gets scored a Brier score based on their accuracy and your score goes up if you predicted it earlier than others.

    Your specific question is not on the list but there are several auto industry and EV related questions you can participate in such as:
    • As of 31 December 2019, how many current and on target for production future full-electric vehicle models will EV Rater list?
    • Before 1 January 2020, will EV Rater list a full-electric vehicle with a range of 420 miles or more?
    • What will be the price of regular gasoline in the U.S. per gallon on 30 December 2019?
    • Will legislation eliminating the unit limit per manufacturer for the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit become law before 1 January 2020?
    • Before 1 January 2020, will the registration deadline for Germany's ownership tax exemption for fully-electric vehicles be extended beyond 2020?
    • Between 8 March and 31 December 2019, how many accidents involving a self-driving vehicle operating in autonomous mode in the U.S. will result in a fatality?
    Don't mean to side track the thread with a bunch of side topics, but I encourage people with some degree of foresight to put their forecasting skills to the test.

    As for the question from the OP, I don't think the current news and related uptick in oil price will make a big impact on EV sales, but a prolonged escalation and uncertainty may make for some longer term worldwide oil supply challenges which may help to foster some EV/PHEV sales, but it will not be a direct instant cause-effect. It will be a gradual thing.
     
    4sallypat likes this.
  10. Is there a site where we can bet on the outcome of those predictions or buy futures?
     
  11. craze1cars

    craze1cars Well-Known Member

    Waaaayyy too early. These “high” gas prices are extremely low by historical standards. They’ll need to darn near double before the world notices.

    Gas is still $2.70/gallon where I live. I clearly remember somewhere approx 10 Years ago it was $4.00.

    Has is still cheap, and will be for quite some time.

    And FWIW I believe the Clarity is dead. Old news. Look forward to whatever is next.
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2019
    4sallypat likes this.
  12. To remove this ad click here.

  13. Add that one to the forecast and we’ll see how it does.

    For me, a car that can do daily commuting and errands on battery power, while at the same time being able to drive across the country without special needs has a bright future.
     
  14. insightman

    insightman Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Honda's lack of promotion while the Clarity PHEV was still a 50-state car and the recent pull-back of inventory to just California certainly make it look like Honda's given up on this car--and all plug-in cars as far as the US is concerned (no Honda e for us). I wonder what happened to the plug-in Pilot spotted being tested more than a year ago? I always expect an HR-V PHEV and/or BEV, and can't figure out why Honda's not doing it.
     
    4sallypat likes this.
  15. 2002

    2002 Well-Known Member

    With battery prices slowly but steadily declining Honda may not feel it's worth it to put a lot of effort into promoting PHEV or EV nationwide right now and it's better to wait for costs to come down and gas prices to go up. Especially after realizing that at least in the U.S. the big tax credits weren't enough to move the car at a reasonable number without additional big factory dealer incentives combined with dealer discounts. For some reason even on the east coast there hasn't seemed to be much enthusiasm for it in spite of some pretty big incentives in ZEV states much of the year. Maybe dealers on the east coast have not been willing to pass on the incentives like California dealers often do, much less add to the discount from their own pocket like we often see in California.

    I do expect Clarity to continue in California and Canada for the indefinite future until they come up with whatever is the follow up.
     
    4sallypat likes this.
  16. Mowcowbell

    Mowcowbell Well-Known Member

    Meh. Gas is still $2.05 gallon in this redneck corner of the USA. I expect folks will be burning gasoline in barrels just to see it explode in flame.

    **Update**... coming home from work, gas JUMPED to $2.19 gallon. I'm sure folks driving jacked up 4x4 pickups will be lining up to buy a Clarity... oh wait, they don't exist outside of CA.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2019
    AlanSqB, MPower, 4sallypat and 2 others like this.
  17. craze1cars

    craze1cars Well-Known Member

    Ev enthusiasts are likely overlooking that Massive improvement in ICE tech is on the immediate horizon. Mazda figured out how to make a gasoline engine run unleadedfuel like a diesel allowing it to put out torque like a small turbo, while getting mpg like a hybrid. And without a turbo or any heavy and expensive batteries. For sale to the public in Europe right now only as a Mazda3, and hopefully coming to the states real soon.

    This sort of tech can be easily expanded to vehicles of any size. Unlike EV or PHEV with today’s battery tech that has massive space and weight limitations.

    And it can be done much much cheaper and lighter than any vehicle with two propulsion systems. And no need for federal subsidies to bring prices down far enough to generate demand.

    This sort of tech will overrun Hybrids much sooner than battery tech and electric fueling infrastructure can advance. Ev growth in the meantime will stay at a snails pace and be just a niche market as it is today.

    Yes EVs will have their day and will rule the market at some time. But I believe that day to be 30 years out.

    And this is admittedly from a United States centric view. Range anxiety is way too real to overcome in this country today for 95% of Americans, and this will change very very slowly. And will be slowed further by ICE advancements.

    Yes Mazda is a small player, but they have a decades long working relationship with Ford. And other mfrs are going to be lining up to buy/trade/copy the technology as it enters the US market and becomes more well known. It can be super easily adapted to engines and vehicles of all sizes...from econoboxes to full size trailer towing trucks. Imagine when every ICE suddenly gets 25% better mpg with a considerable gain in usable low rpm performance. In conjunction with today’s cheap gasoline, Americans will eat that up and ride the wave for quite a while. And it’s ALMOST here....just on the other side of the pond...
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2019
    Texas22Step, 2002 and 4sallypat like this.
  18. 2002

    2002 Well-Known Member

    Seems like a hybrid version of that engine would be an even bigger improvement? In fact the Mazda car being rolled out will be a mild hybrid. So I'm not sure that means the end of hybrids, or even a reduction since the percentage is already relatively small. But yes it may very well provide another alternative, or even replace existing ICE technology eventually as you said. ICE technology has made huge gains in efficiency and reducing emissions in the past several decades, this sounds like it could be another big step forward.

    But EV technology should continue to improve also. I don't think it is a stretch to imagine that in ten years most EV's will have 200 mile range and be able to charge at super fast DC speeds at a much larger number of charging stations than exist today. And regulations aren't going away and will likely increase. Colorado recently became a ZEV state. And the percentage requirements in California and other ZEV states will continue to rise in proportion to the reduction in EV cost and increase in practicality.

    Gasoline isn't going away for a long time either. It may eventually be reduced to less than half of passenger vehicles using only fossil fuels but that still means millions of vehicles will not be electric. I do envision however regulations eventually mandating hybrid technology in every gas engine, maybe within about twenty years. I also see PHEV being a big part of this, it's just ahead of its time at the moment.
     
  19. EV enthusiasts, at least the purists, tend to be opposed to all things fossil fuel. They won’t much care about a stated 20% increase in ICE fuel economy. It’s still evil.

    I welcome such improvements. The Mazda X engine will still burn petrol every time it comes out of the garage and a driver with an active right foot could quickly negate any potential increase in fuel efficiency by zipping that torquey, peppy, zoom-zoom engine around town.

    Mazda has stated that they intend to add PHEV’s to their lineup. When they add 40+ miles of EV range to their X engine they will have a very intriguing vehicle.
     
    2002 likes this.
  20. Agzand

    Agzand Active Member

    It will be difficult to imagine higher oil prices ever. Right now 2 big producers (Venezuela and Iran) are effectively shut out of the market, Saudi and Russia have cut output, and there is still elevated reserves every where. In a few years demand will fall (due to electric cars) and it will be all over. I think it is more likely to see a sustained $30-$40 barrel oil than $100.
     
  21. Never underestimate the power of busybodies to manipulate market forces to suit the needs of their agenda.
     
  22. fargledaer

    fargledaer New Member

    When fuels are taxed commensurate with the cost of carbon cleanup, the price to consumers will rise regardless of supply. Oil producing countries continue to tell the world there’s nothing to see here and have been largely successful in their mission to pass the cost on to future generations, but not all governments around the world are run by the villains from Captain Planet. Global automakers obviously see the writing on the wall even if you do not, as they are investing heavily in electric vehicles despite tepid demand in the current market.
     
  23. This isn’t a forecast.

    I see the Volt has been discontinued. Fusion, maybe? Clarity, rumored to be limited to CA and OR only for 2020.

    In 13 years, Tesla just had it’s best year, losing only $1 Billion. There are concerns that the Model 3 cannot be sold profitably at the desired $35K price point. There is no longer a $7500 tax credit for their vehicles.

    Here’s an opinion.

    I don’t believe a BEV or PHEV would make it beyond a break room chat at the office of an automobile manufacturer seeking to make a profit. They’ve been made because of mandates and they’ve sold because of incentives. Very few free market forces at play here. End of opinion.

    Pick up trucks and SUV’s are the money makers. They are also the top sellers.

    I’m glad Honda made the Clarity and I now own one. I’ve used 2.5 gallons in the past 1000 miles. That would have taken about 30 gallons in the old car.

    Here’s a forecast.

    More people driving BEV and PHEV cars could create a surplus of fuel and lower fuel prices. This could result in increased sales, or the continued use, of vehicles with poor fuel efficiency. Unless, of course, there are interventions to create the desired result.
     
    Texas22Step likes this.

Share This Page