Bloomberg Model 3 tracker shows production crashing below 1000/week

Не настоящий друг. Ваша пропаганда не имеет никакого эффекта. Вы уже сыграли свою руку и показали, что вы сосете Путина.

Bob Wilson

 

Totally agree with you, the sedan market is dying... People who want EV's line up for Tesla because there are no other compelling options (GM blew it on the Bolt styling and interior), but when Kona and others get out, I feel there will hit Tesla's model 3 backlog hard. Kona is just a more useful vehicle. I also think the model 3 P will be a flop 10K or so max demand, not too many people want a car like that at the same price as an I-Pace loaded with family features

 

Yes, time will tell... The bulk of the market cannot afford a 45K car... also in a couple quarters Tesla is going to have a huge tax rebate disadvantage in the USA... thats really going to hurt on the lower end. with Kona, and others coming on with full rebates. And Merc, Jag, Audi, and others are going to exploit that on the high end..

 

Ya ne govoryu po-russki.

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Given the mild climate of Fremont CA, I don't see a problem. As long as it is dry with reasonable temperature control, go for it.

Bob Wilson

 

Teslainvestors quoted:

"The existing line isn't functional, it can't build cars as planned and there isn't room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots," Warburton said in an email. "So here we have it-build cars manually in the parking lot."​

Everybody is just speculating here, but Warburton seems to be going out of his way to make ridiculous Tesla bashing assertions, which of course is the reason Teslainvestor would quote that.

I would guess Nix was correct in his comment about the subject, in saying what is being done in the tent is probably just the final post-painting assembly work which is mostly done by hand anyway. The idea that Tesla would put an entire start-to-finish production line in a tent is rather implausible. As has been pointed out by HVACman, the tent would lack humidity control or stable temperature, would not have a trunk line of electrical power or lighting, and would not provide the sort of "clean room" needed for some assembly work. It has also been noted that there isn't any fire suppression system in the tent.

The idea that putting an assembly line in a tent is the future of manufacturing... No. Just no.

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It sounds like Tesla needs another tent. Also, the extra $2,500 to place an order suggests cash-flow needed for labor and materials. As for hours, I've been through two spacecraft mission launches and we had a 'crash room' with folding beds. I preferred to sleep in the car weather permitting.

When under a hard deadline, there will be problems with subject matter experts huddled around the problem area. An operating system programmer, I was the 'last resort' because my problems were where the hardware met the software. The integration and test team had me on speed-dial. The application software teams were . . . less enthusiastic.

Bob Wilson

 

That looks like a reasonable guesstimate. Based on history, I do think it's going to take more than a month to build up to doing 5000 per week as an average for an entire month, or rather a four-week period.

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This benchmark will also give Tesla insights to what their suppliers need to do. Some like sheet metal and tires will scale quickly. There may be more trouble getting glass and battery chemicals ramped up.

Bob Wilson

 

Tesla bought a glass factory and said it was going to start making its own automobile window glass. Are they still buying windows and windshields from an outside supplier? It wouldn't surprise me if they are; just curious.

From Electrek, Nov. 2016: "Tesla Model 3 will feature new type of glass developed in-house, Elon Musk confirms ‘Tesla Glass’ tech group"

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I was speculating about the glass since that is a typical parts supplier product. Elon has worked hard to vertically integrate Tesla (much like Henry Ford) and this no doubt provides more insulation from the 'usual suspects.

Bob Wilson

 

I think the semi-informed guesses were that starting the second week in July, Model 3 production stabilized at about 3500 per week, and of course it has climbed, or will, from there. As has been pointed out many times, the Bloomberg "production tracker" doesn't even pretend to be accurate from week-to-week, but only tries for long-term overall accuracy.

5000 per week was what Tesla almost -- but not quite -- managed to do in the week ending the second quarter. As with every pull-out-the-stops week ending a quarter, Tesla ramped up to an unsustainable production pace, and then immediately after had to take a few days of slack production -- or even a few days off -- for everyone to rest and recuperate.

Personally I wish Tesla would quit this binge-and-purge cycle. But strangely enough, Elon keeps failing to call me up to ask for my personal advice on how he should handle production. He does that every quarter, quite predictably.

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