EVs Vs ICE Vehicles

Curious as Thursday at lunch, I invited someone(*) for one of my '30 minute test drive: you drive and I operate the display screen.' As I explained, no one can pickup a tablet or new computer and really master it in a test drive. So you will be the driver and I will operate the screen to show off the various modes.

Bob Wilson

* - this is a loud mouth, Republican who visits one of my favorite lunch places, West End Bar and Grill. We had talked about the low operating costs and simpler drivetrain. With 'hands on,' he'll understand the rest.

 

Maybe I can be an example? I'm having trouble finding the same information, namely long duration cost of ownership. I appreciate Bob's posts, have read many in the forum and like his engineering approach. His post here was interesting, but my reaction to it was that I don't tend to drive 25k/yr, so his M3 data won't apply to me; his info is just one data point; for me, his data are still short term. Still, happy to have seen his post.

To give context, I've driven every car I've bought into the junk yard. Typical length of ownership for me is ballpark 10 years and, except for a Saturn, mileages will be over 100k. I think the Colt was around 120k/11 yr; Saturn 80k/14 yr; 2001 Passat 230k/12 yr; 2010 Passat (piece of junk wish I never bought it never will buy a VW again) 100k/11 yr. The 2014 VW Sportwagen is at 7 yr/90k and I want another 4-5 yr out of it. When I've looked for total cost of ownership for EVs, I've had trouble that either the report is done as a comparison and isn't clear about assumptions or even what the reference case is or is only 5 yr.

For me, I think decarbonization is important enough that I'm willing to pay a premium since I've been fortunate, but I don't want to do it blindly. I've never spent more than $24k for a car (new). Adding $16k to get into a M3 Std+ is too big a premium (just sticker price), so I need to correct that number to a TCO and make a fair comparison, but for me that means drive it into the ground.

My assumptions for anything that I buy new is 10yr and 100k. If I won't hit that without battery service for an M3, I need to add in that cost. For an M3 and my driving, I'll likely hit end of drivetrain warranty at 8yr with only 70k on the car. (In this case, it will be my wife's car, which is lower mileage...could even be 60k). I'd like to know that I can assume 2 more years for those batteries, but really would like to see 4 more. I sometimes wonder if I should pony up the extra $10k for the long range now so that, at 12 years with degradation, I will still have good range, but then recoil because that's almost half of what I've ever paid for a whole, new car. Still, if adding 25% to the purchase price gets me 25% more service life because I avoid being forced to sell because of range degradation, it's worth the 10k now. I wish I had data to help make this choice, but I don't see the long term data. My instinct, though, is to skip the $10k range upgrade and count on 8yr of prices falling instead as the better hedge.

 

If you drive it to the ground, your TCO will look much better. Current conventional wisdom says that EVs bought today will at best be obsolete in 10 years and at worst need a battery replacement (which could make it worthless). That's why the depreciation rate is so high. Personally, I think most of the newer high range (250+ miles EPA) EVs will still be good after 10 years (and I am thinking 200K miles, not 100K). And getting to that point will be a lot cheaper because of the lower maintenance costs of a BEV, not to mention electricity being cheaper than gasoline.

I think the old Leaf cars with their passive battery cooling gave EVs a bad rap. But the newer cars all have active battery cooling and should last a lot longer.

As for ICE cars, some can last a long time, too. I am on my 4th Subaru right now, and each of the previous ones went to 350K+ kms (200K+ miles) before I sold them (still at surprisingly decent price). No major problems or maintenance with any of them and still running strong. There is a guy (courier driver) on one of the Crosstrek forums who just crossed 1 million miles with his. At 600K miles he replaced the engine (was starting to use some oil and compression dropping), and it is still going. So these cars can last a very long time if driven and maintained properly. Subaru says that 90+% of their cars are still on the road after 10 years. So yes, some ICE cars can last a very long time.

 

I find the TCO comparisons difficult because it is so hard for me to choose a reference. For example, if I think I'd buy another Passat (to be representative of what I own), then the fuel economy is 25/36, just like my current model, so I know it will average out it will be around 27mpg for me and will require premium fuel. Over 100k and $3.50/gal, I save $10,500 in fuel by choosing a Model 3. But, if I'm buying new to reduce emissions and use , say, a Camry XSE hybrid with 44 mpg and regular gasoline at $2.75/gal, my savings is only $3700. (I assumed 4 mi/kWh and $0.1/kWh). Big difference. Edmunds suggested for the Camry is $35k, so the Model 3 and Camry sums out to within about 1k of the M3, ignoring maintenance. The Edmunds suggested for Passat SE is $26k, which comes to $36k with extra fuel costs vs. the M3. Cheaper than the $40k M3. All of this goes out the window if I need a big battery job before 10 years. My _guess_ is that I do not need to add in battery costs before 10 years. My _guess_ is that it isn't even close to being needed at that point. I wish I didn't have to guess. Such is new tech, I guess, but it does feel like it is hard to find info, maybe because I am new to this. I really appreciate these forums (fora?).

 

Yes, with all the bad rap about batteries, incl cost, defects, etc, hard to get a good handle on 10 year TCO. But like I said, I suspect it will be a lot better than people are thinking now. And so called experts like to estimate the worst, too.

When it comes to EV longevity, I would also look at company history, and where they will be in 10 years. Some of the newer ones don't have long term experience in manufacturing their non-EV components (suspension, etc), and have poor rating from Consumer Reports and others on reliability incl poor build quality. So that is another consideration. There are a lot of new BEVs coming on the market in the next few years, and future maintenance and parts could figure into long term value of a vehicle. Here are some rankings to consider among all car manufacturers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-best-car-brands-ranking-consumer-reports-jd-power-2021-2

https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/25/21302804/tesla-ranks-last-on-influential-jd-power-quality-survey

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2020-us-automotive-brand-loyalty-study#:~:text=The%202020%20U.S.%20Automotive%20Brand%20Loyalty%20Study%20calculations,help%20its%20clients%20drive%20customer%20satisfaction,%20growth

 

RP, many thanks. I'll have a look at those links. At the moment, I'm heavily swayed by the notion that the charging network is what matters for me because highway trips are important to me. As best I can tell, that strongly sways me towards one brand, even if I have concerns about their build quality and their lack of large scale experience vs. beasts like Ford and GM. I know my wife. She will endure anything, has the patience of a saint for important stuff, but hates hates hates sitting at rest stops or any sense of wasted time. As for EV vs. ICE, this issue of highway trips I need to get right for her for this to work. Right now, I _think_ I can pull it off with standard range and fast chargers for most of our road trips and home charging will actually handle day to day use. I'm still not certain about standard range vs. long on the Model 3 and I'm having trouble being objective because the long range option is likely more than I'll spend, yet I want this to work.

I should add, I'm in the market now. The stupid 2010 Passat has fluids coming out of everything that can leak plus other problems and isn't worth repairing even though it only has 100k on it. I just put $400 into it to get the 8 to 12 weeks I need to research and obtain a replacement.

 

Tesla will be opening up its superchargers to other EVs at the end of the year.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-tesla-open-superchargers-other-evs-035136832.html

 

Am I too cynical if I worry that opening them to other vehicles does not necessarily mean delivering full fast charging, especially as you start up and want to be really sure you don't fry a non-Tesla EV?

 

a few things would help their gradual move replacing ICE vehicles..
1) the initial cost must be closer
2) there should be offerings of in-town EV cars to appeal as a SECOND car in a two-car household. cars like the VW id3(now in Europe) should be offered here. as a 2nd car(with the other probably being an ICE), a shorter range for use locally would fit well. takes any reservation because of lack of charging on highways out of the picture. smaller cars with smaller batteries would bring down costs and make them affordable.
experience will result in people migrating their next ‘other’ car to an EV.


Sent from my iPad using Inside EVs

 

During the second quarter of this year, BEV sales in the U.S. increased at more than five times the rate of vehicle sales overall. Details here. ​

 

lol. what are you talking about? I don't care about your anecdotal experience. As someone who supposedly cares about "data and science" that should be obvious why.

There have been several EV models that have had recalls because of battery fires - you know, because they looked at the data. InsideEVs has written several articles highlighting battery fires. Are they propagandists now? Lord knows what other car media sites are writing on this topic matter.

The same goes for battery replacement. InsideEVs has published articles about expensive, out-of-warranty battery replacements. Are they propagandists? Again, Lord knows what people are reading on other sites. The average car buyer isn't thinking "hmm. let me go read the latest study on accelerated testing for batteries." - as if those perfectly model what happens in reality anyways.

Most Evs on the road aren't even 5 years old yet - The model 3 only went into production 4 years ago. Even fewer are older than 10 years. Most cars bought in the US are used and the average age of cars is 11-12 (or years of ownership, whatever doesn't matter). Plus the technology is changing faster than any causal viewer can keep up with - I check plugshare almost daily to track the progress of DC fast chargers being installed. How many non-ev drivers do you think do this?

 

Although I don't disagree with your post, this particular sentence is, you know, wrong. They didn't recall those models because they looked at the data, they recalled those models because they looked at the fires, their conscience, and at the letter from their legal department about liability.

 

Nah. I doubt it. it's definitely because enough has happened to warrant it.

 

It's pretty simple. Tesla doesn't make much profit on the cars, so Elon looking for every dollar he can get,... selling carbon credits, now this.
https://insideevs.com/news/522126/tesla-open-superchargers-estimated-revenue/
Won't help where we live. SuperChargers are not free like many other fast chargers here. My son with his Tesla M3 and Chademo adapter ($600 CAD) uses the non-Tesla fast chargers mostly.

 

"Why do you think EV's have not replaced ICE vehicles yet?" Well in my neck of the woods its partly because there isn't the supply to replace them all. Local Ford dealer hasn't seen a Mach E yet and isn't sure when he will. Tesla wait times are a month or 3 out or more. I have not seen an ID4 yet. And so on... I'm sure availability varies by region. The change is coming as the big manufacturers commit Billions to change over. I'll go out on a limb and say its inevitable IMHO.

 

Just order the Tesla 3-4 weeks from the end of a quarter. You'd be surprised at how fast 'inventory' shows up.

Bob Wilson

 

Tesla has a facility in Edmonton and that was their estimate. Was really looking for a PHEV because I make a 1000km trip several times a year and public chargers are rare along the route. Tried to find a RAV4 Prime. Good luck with that. Nothing available til 2022. Looked for a Hyundai Tucson delayed available. Looked for a Honda Clarity and none available in all of Alberta. Ended up buying one in White Rock (Vancouver) BC . My point is unless your on a waiting list your not getting one in my neck of the woods. So if EV’s are going to replace ICE there needs to be way better available.

 

Is a four seat, BMW i3-REx too small?

Bob Wilson