Honda EV committment/future?

I think Honda has bet the house on their hybrid and PHEV drive train for the next generation of cars. Most mainstream models will become hybrids, with lower volume PHEV models based on the same platforms (e.g. CR-V PHEV). For the following generation (2025) they will have some bespoke BEVs. Until then the only BEV will be the Honda e which is a good car for Europe but needs more range and lower price.

 

I’ve expressed my views on this before, but since you asked, here goes. I believe PHEV’s are a much more elegant approach to reducing harmful emissions than going all-in BEV. There are, however, brilliant experts that have other ideas on how to save humanity, so the interventions for going full Monty on BEV’s will continue.

Probably 90% of drivers travel less than 30-40 miles on a daily basis. A Clarity, Volt, RAV4, Prius Prime (almost), allow drivers to operate their cars as BEV’s for nearly all of their driving. At the same time they have a fuel efficient car that can complete longer trips with the same level of convenience as a conventional ICE vehicle.

It has been pointed out that a PHEV has the added complexity, cost and weight of all those ICE components. It is also been pointed out that a BEV has the added weight and cost of a large Lithium battery that is used primarily to travel 30-40 miles a day.

So, what would get more people driving an EV for their daily commute, a Tesla with a 100kWh battery, or 6 Clarity’s with 17kWh batteries? Which one is more affordable to the average Joe?

I applaud Honda, Toyota, FCA or any other manufacturer for producing PHEV’s. A minimum EV range of 30 miles would be a desirable standard to establish. Anything under 20 miles is a wasted effort, in my opinion.

 

Everyone knows ICE is dead, just look at how GM, Ford, VW go all-in with EVs, we know ICE days are numbers. The question here is if PHEV will be relevant.
Imo, it depends on battery technology. The reason we do PHEV because of the battery cost. If the battery price goes under $100/kwh (I think now is $160/kwh, it used to be $1000/kwh when Nissan introduced Leaf), manufacture will have no motivation to produce PHEV since BEV will be cheaper. Also, the battery technology keeps advancing, where gas engine (part of PHEV) are at the dead-end. If the industry can come up with a good solid-state battery, twice the range with the same battery size, and million miles of battery life, then BEV will win for sure. Also, you cannot fight the law of physic, an electric motor is much simpler to produce and maintan than gas engine. That alone, I think EV will win. As I already said, the only thing that hold EV back now is the battery. Once the battery problem is solved( cheaper, more range, fast charging), then it does not make sense to own an ICE.

Just look how GM dumped the volt and put all money on EVs, I really don't think PHEV will have a future. Imo, PHEV is a transition from ICE to BEV only. Eventually few years from now, there will be all BEV. The reason Toyota and Honda are pitching PHEV because they think they have an advantage over Tesla since they know ICE better than Tesla. Just like Toyota was pitching about hydrogen cars, Toyota said it's the future , you believe it's true? Toyota said it because it knows it has an advantage with hydrogen. Honda cannot compete in EV, look at the failure of Honda E in Europe, they have to pay Tesla to avoid "tax penalty on EV sale" in Europe, basically Honda pays Tesla to use their volume sales to offset the low volume sales of their EV sales. They do it because is cheaper than to pay the penalty . Honda can hardly sell Honda E.
The revolution of transportation is happening in our lifetime. ICE is dead, EV is the future. Just look at EV stocks, TSLA, NIO, XPEV, wallstreet all aggree that EV is the future that is why they reward 2 years-old company like NIO that has market cap bigger than Bez and BMW. I think all ICE manufacture realize that, they all-in in EVs now, the question here is who will win. Companies that act slow, will die. Blackberry, Nokia, Motorola acted slowly with the boom of smartphone, the same fate will happen to Honda. The retail industry, Sears, JCP, Mancys tried to hold on to their existing business brick and motar, act slowly to combat Amazon, it will happen to Honda and Toyota if they keep trying to hold on to their existing ICE business. I applaud VW and GM, they all-in with EV, no return to ICE. VW 5 years ago invest 25 billion to create meb platform for EV, it starts to pay off since now Benz has to use VW meb to produce EVs. The problem I see many companies like Ford, Toyota use ICE platforms to produce their EVs. Like Toyota, using ICE plaftform to create Rav4 then stick battery in there and call it PHEV, "an EV strategy". Well, let see if they can do it in a long run....

Don't think producing an EV is easy. There is a reason why Tesla is so successful.
I own a Model Y, I test drove Audi Etron, Jaguar IPace, Nissan Leaf and BMW I3, I can clearly say is day and night Tesla vs the rest. I would say Tesla is 3 years ahead of all of them.

 

Some of your predictions will inevitably occur. It is baked in the legislative cake.

Keep in mind that the great minds that have devised these proposals have also been striving to end poverty, eliminate homelessness, improve the education system, combat drug and alcohol addiction, reduce federal debt and make medical care affordable, among other wonderful ideas, all to little or no avail. I do not consider it unreasonable to question their motives or to suggest that they may be taking the wrong approach to solve their stated problem. I base this skepticism on their past performance.

Among other quotes, this one from H L Mencken come to mind: “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”

Out of curiosity, how far do you typically drive your Model Y each day?

 

Around 50 miles. My Clarity also can cover that range, but I need to charge it daily. I agree with the statement, 90% of the population needs only 40 miles range daily, so the industry needs to balance the need to "add on additional energy" either gas engine (PHEV) or more battery (BEV). In either case, the gas engine or additional battery you won't be using most of the time. I like the concept of NIO, actually Tesla introduced 6 years ago, which is battery swapping. If you buy NIO EV, you just buy the car, not the battery. You can rent a battery, their stations swap battery under 5mins. So people rent "small" battery for the normal daily commute, if they need a road trip in a long weekend, they can swap for a bigger battery.

 

Perhaps the Volt would have persisted had GM not stopped making the Chevy Cruze on which it was based (well, they both shared the D2XX architecture). After putting all money on EVs, GM had to heavily discount the Bolt to move them off dealer lots. It will be interesting to see if the Bolt EUV can be sold at anywhere near MSRP.

Do Porsche Taycans sell at MSRP? Otherwise, right now it seems only Teslas and MINI Electric EVs sell for MSRP.

 

The bolt has 16K discount from MSRP. I mean, I don't know how GM can make money
I believe there will be a shakeup in the car industry, who will emerge as EV leader is the winner if you believe EV is the future. I strongly believe EV is the future. Just look at Toyota, last year, the CEO was bashing about EV, he did not believe EV. Suddenly this week, out of nowhere, they announced 2 EVs in US this year.
With government incentives, especially you live in California, with Europe move to EV, China all-in with EV, it's hard to bet against EVs, IMO.
I understand it's hard to let go of the ICE business that you dominate, and venture to a new business that you know you are way behind Tesla. That's Toyota and Honda's dilemma. Maybe Toyota changed their mind this year after TSLA surpassed them as the biggest carmaker in term of market cap, 3 times bigger than them. Once Tesla can produce a 25K EV car which they already announced, then omg, the pressure is tremendous. Toyota still have a big weapon, they have invested a lot in the solid-state battery. They might be the first one to commercialize solid-state battery EV. Race to solid-state is extraordinary critical, just like the race to produce the first COVID19 vaccine. QuantumScape, announced they had a solid-state solution, the stock shot up to $140, then crashed down to 40s after people found out the battery will not work with real-world since the battery requires 30F to 70F to operate, lol. People in Canada are out of luck then . But that shows you how the industry is exciting about the next generation of battery. Although we are exciting about solid-state battery, I believe it's still years away. Now as of what I know, solid-state is still R&D at the cell level, man, from cell level to pack them to run the car, it takes years....

GM and VW already show they are willing to let go ICE, let wait and see...

 

If I recall, GM supported relaxing fuel economy standards just a few months ago. Then, some time around the second week of November, they changed their tune.

Odd, isn’t it?

 

It’s a yuge coincidence.

 

Someone on this forum has already reported being offered a RAV4 Prime at less than MSRP, which surprised me because I've heard more stories about dealers gouging people who want this rare crossover. Honda's already on top of the CR-V PHEV--for China. Why they wouldn't sell it in the US is beyond me.

 

jpkik, if that's the only way people can put energy from a public location, then yes it has to be 5mins to put energy to vehicle. Just like gasoline, the only way you can have energy is to go to the public gas station, then the fill up has to be 5mins since no-one wants to wait. But for EV, remember, you have energy at home, most of EV users will charge from home, it's very convenient. Just like you charge your phone. To be honest, from my experience, I rather plugin every day to charge from home, it takes me 5 seconds then waiting at the gas station weekly for 5 mins. But yah, your point is taken. People sentiments are different, and not everyone can charge from home.
That's why EV will be successful and Hydrogen will fail. With EV, you already have the infrastructure, your energy at home. With Hydrogen, you have to build out the infrastructure like gas stations, this a huge investment that no-one has a gut to do it. That's why when Toyota is pitching about hydrogen, no-one believes it, but yet Toyota produces Mirai. I have to give credits to few buyers, probably the only place you have hydrogen stations in the world is in California, and we have like under 30 stations

 

Hydrogen may prove to be very successful for the long-haul trucking industry because when semi trucks are inevitably powered by electric motors, the drivers won't want to be waiting around for the batteries to recharge--even if they have 4 Tesla Superchargers per truck to speed up the charging process.

Also, a fuel-cell drivetrain could be lighter than one powered by batteries, which would be important for an industry where taxes are assessed by weight. The number of hydrogen stations required to support the trucking industry could be limited because they could all be located along expressways. Battery-powered trucks could handle local delivery duties.

If hydrogen becomes viable for the trucking industry, the technology improvements would filter down to private vehicles. Then early-adopters with private fuel-cell vehicles who live near expressways would have a place to fill up. After that it will all come down to whether battery-powered cars are less expensive to own than hydrogen cars.

What needs to happen is for the price of hydrogen to come down from the stratosphere and for there to be a way to generate hydrogen without increasing global warming (eg. not from natural gas). A nuclear reactor could produce unlimited amounts of hydrogen, but building a specialized reactor for this purpose won't happen unless...OK, it won't happen.

 

NEw models of anything sell for MSRP (or more)
Teslas always sell at MSRP, because they control the price. Instead of discounting, they just change the MSRP. Someone like GM will set the MSRP (the Bolt, i.e.) and then apply discounts to get the same volume they want/need. Same thing, just different terminology. With Tesla, Lucid, Polestar, Rivian, Lordstown, Byton, etc - there will be no negotiations because there is only one supplier. They simply change MSRP to adjust to the market instead of offering discounts (or dealers adding "market adjustments" for hot cars). If Tesla and GM get their tax credit status back, the prices they charge will rise (probably less than the new $7K credit, but an increase nonetheless).

Honda has "electrified" models in the pipeline, but nothing they are willing to talk about yet. Had a bit of a cryptic discussion with the alternative fuels manager regarding a replacement for the Clarity Electric when my lease is up. I can extend, but probably doesn't make much sense. Current local specials are as low as $39/mo with $2K drive off (title, registration, taxes, all fees) for a net cost of $3,365 for 3 years of use for an Ioniq EV with 170 miles of range. Yes it is an around town car, but I have zero interest in sacrificing needed electric range and haul around an ICE for very occasional use. Even if I did not have other options to drive, renting a vehicle for distance travel would be a better option.
While PHEVs have some aspects of the best of both worlds, they also have the worst characteristics of both. The added weight, complexity, and cost of fitting two completely different drive trains and fuel sources into a single vehicle means they are not viable long term. For those that insist that they need an ICE for long distance travel (hybrids and PHEVs included), buying a new vehicle with one will still be an option for the next 15-20 years.

 

Thanks. Now I can stop envying the people who paid less for their Clarity PHEV by purchasing theirs after I forked over MSRP to get the first one off the truck. I'd been waiting a year after Honda announced the "50-state" PHEV version of the Clarity, so I didn't expect it to be discounted.

Because the car made so much sense to me, I naively believed Honda would turn the Clarity PHEV into a sales leader. Now it's pretty much just a California compliance car. But a good compliance car.

On the plus side, no one has enjoyed their Clarity PHEV longer than I have.

 

This is a great discussion topic and I enjoy (and value) everyone's opinions and insights. I am on the East Coast so I like to hear the experiences of those of you in CA, the U.S. midwest and in Canada.

My thoughts on this is that I think we will continue to have a range of choices with no clear "winning" technology or obvious technology direction. So a place for BEV, a place for PHEV, a place for hydrogen and a place even for gasoline-hybrids. Here are few dominant (in my mind) factors that form my opinions:

1. car companies (except Tesla) seem to be only able to make profits on gasoline or gasoline hybrid SUVs and pickup trucks. Ford abandoned its sedan business. Look at the advertising right now to see how much these companies are still pushing consumers to buy SUVs and pickups. They have tremendous inertia towards continuing to sell SUVs and pickups - so they'll offer more advanced gasoline-hybrids and perhaps PHEVs to do so. BEVs for SUVs and pickups are a fundamental mismatch: these vehicles are too heavy and aerodynamically draggy, with high rolling resistance for BEVs. Only small SUVs powered by a Clarity-like PHEV architecture can be at all practical. Traditional car companies (Ford, GM, Honda) will have a choice: do I just focus on SUVs and pickups, powered by gasoline-hybrid or even PHEV? or do I jump in and offer BEV and PHEV small and medium sized cars and sedans?

2. Li-ion battery technology will only become incrementally better over the next few years. They will still have a significant (20 times at least?) energy density disadvantage vs. gasoline. So we won't see $25k priced fully-equipped, full-size EVs with 300 mile range. And we won't see big SUVs powered by Li-ion BEV. There are promising incremental improvements to exploit for batteries that I think we will see over the next ten years (fast supercapacitors, more optimized battery charging, better battery performance in cold weather, larger scale battery mfg efficiencies, ubiquity of charging infrastructure).

3. hydrogen will become viable (and the preferred solution) for longhaul trucking and more and more fleet vehicles (FedEx, UPS, USPS, city buses, municipal vehicles/trucks); I think the performance of hydrogen will make it compelling for these applications which have some control over their infrastructure.

4. City vs. suburb vs. rural/longdistance: It sure seems like these technologies align to drivers needs as such: BEVs for city driving, PHEVs for suburb and gasoline-hybrid for rural/longdistance (or pickup trucks) So I think buyers will gravitate to these solutions (with exceptions of course) and also BEVs will try to compete for the suburb market, PHEVs for the rural/longdistance and SUV/pickup markets, for instance.

5. policy will more and more shape the competition between BEV, PHEV, gasoline-hybrid and hydrogen. We will see more carbon emissions regulations and government incentives affecting some/all of these technologies. This will only become more important as more of society agrees that we have to reel in carbon emissions.

6. Some of these technology solutions and architectures stick around for a long time. For instance, Toyota introduced the Prius in 1997 (24 years ago now!). So we've had that gasoline-hybrid architecture with regen braking for several car generations. And remember, this was "complicated" engineering when it first came out, and you still have to lug around two power generation technologies, but we've accepted it. While the PHEV architecture of the Clarity (and the Volt and others in China) is complicated, the resulting performance is hard to beat (I see nothing in 2021 that beats my 2018 Clarity's price and performance), especially for that suburb market segment, so I think PHEV will stick around and not just be a novelty or a transition architecture.

 

Amazon just ordered 1000 ICE vehicles that will be powered by natural gas engines from Cummins/Westport. NorCal Waste ordered 13 of the same.