Was Toyota right? Lagging EV sales

  • Thread starter Thread starter Mark W
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My understanding is:
  • Tesla continues to grow production, sales, and manufacturing efficiency
  • Non-Tesla EVs in the USA are accumulating in dealer parking lots
    • Poor Price-Performance
    • CCS-1 charging
    • Dealers
  • Restrictions on $7500 tax credit to USA manufactured EVs
Bob Wilson
 
Mark W said:
Strange. The link brings me to a page that shows $5,000 bonus cash on SE and SEL trims.
Click to expand...
Here is what I'm seeing.

Total Savings
Up to
$7,500
Total Savings
Offer ends in 4 days on July 31, 2023

Offer Disclaimer
$7,500 Retail Bonus Cash available on a Hyundai 2023 IONIQ 5 SEL AWD purchased from dealer stock between 7/14/2023 and 7/31/2023.

$5,000 Retail Bonus Cash available on a Hyundai 2023 IONIQ 5 SEL RWD purchased from dealer stock between 7/6/2023 and 7/31/2023.

Customers who participate in a Special Lease or Low APR program through Hyundai Motor Finance (HMF) do not qualify for Retail Bonus Cash. See participating dealer for details. Retail Bonus Cash offer ends 7/31/2023.
If you are currently a registered owner of a vehicle distributed by Hyundai Motor America, you can receive an additional $2,500 off, toward the purchase or lease of, a new 2023 HYUNDAI IONIQ 5 SEL RWD. Offer excludes 2023 IONIQ 5 SEL AWD. Incentive amounts are subject to change without notice. Offer cannot be combined with Competitive Owner Coupon. Hyundai Motor America reserves the sole right to cancel, amend or revoke any incentive program in full or in part for any reason at any time without incurring liability. Hyundai Motor America reserves the sole right to interpret these rules and shall not be bound by any previous interpretations made by Hyundai Motor America before or during the program. Must take delivery from new retail stock by 7/31/2023. Please see your Hyundai dealer Retailer for full offer details.

New 2023 Hyundai IONIQ 5 SEL
33
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Seattle Hyundai14005 Aurora Ave N, Seattle, WA, 98133
Internet Special!








1 / 16


MSRP
$52,890
Hyundai Rebate
- $7,500
Additional Savings
- $2,500
Purchase Price
$42,890
Conditional Offers
- $400
 
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There are many interpretations for this graph from the article:
upload_2023-7-29_16-5-50.webp
  • Tesla runs special deals at the end of each quarter and 2023 ones were especially sweet.
  • Having potential Tesla buyers fill up on the June deals, there will be a rebound due to fewer wishful buyers.
  • It looks like inventory levels are returning to near normal levels.
One frequent TeslaQ claim are there is 'no or low Tesla demand.' Using cherry picked data and wishful thinking, the next quarter, Tesla blows them away. Yet the TeslaQ crowd never goes back and corrects their earlier, failed claims.

Use the Tesla quarterly report numbers and you'll be on solid ground.

Bob Wilson
 
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Bruce M. said:
So sorry, you said "slowing dramatically." A 48% year over year increase is not "slowing dramatically." It's not slowing at all. And again, Tesla's market share dropped. Is this hard to understand?
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You were the one that said you needed to correct my "misunderstandings". Hey, no issue, it's all good, I'm just trying to discuss the main issue which is - What is the real demand for EVs? The demand for Teslas has been high for many many years, especially after the release of the Model Y. Higher than they could keep up with until this year. I believe that the demand for non-Tesla EVs was artificially high last year because of the factors I mentioned previously. I also believe that now that most EVs are available to purchase without much wait, and Tesla gets the tax credit and lowered their prices, Tesla is dominating EV sales at the expense of Ford, Volkswagon, Kia and Hyundai.

So, the question for the non-Tesla automakers is, how badly to people really want EVs? Hyundai came out with the very nice Ioniq 6, and had to discount it right away. I think there is decent demand for EVs, but I don't think there is huge demand for EVs over $50,000 in this market. Just really bad timing there. Because they were selling every EV they could make for a while, they had NO incentive to make less expensive EVs. I think they have to pivot to less expensive EVs now. I think if Tesla can come out with a $30,000 EV it will even be worse for the legacy guys.

The tax credit is also critical. If you don't qualify, I don't know how you possibly compete with Tesla.

I think GM's upcoming EV launches will be very telling. If they don't sell high volumes of Silverados, Blazer and Equinox EVs, it will be a bad sign for the overall EV market. I think there are enough people interested in EVs, I just don't think there are a large amount that are willing to pay a $10,000 premium to get an EV.

These are just my opinions, I've been wrong many times before, what do you think?
 
Coming back to this a year later, it seems Toyota has done better financially than most other automakers. Maybe they were right in their cautious approach to EVs. All automakers are cutting back their EV production.
 
Mark W said:
Coming back to this a year later, it seems Toyota has done better financially than most other automakers. Maybe they were right in their cautious approach to EVs. All automakers are cutting back their EV production.
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Yup, no question about that. Toyota remains the auto manufacturer leader. They have always been good at understanding what customers want, and don't want. But they dipped a toe in the BEV segment with the bZ4X and Solterra to test the market. When the time is right they will come on strong with BEVs, I'm sure. I think they may be waiting for solid state batteries before they go big. Range and fast charging are still not adequate for what most people want.

Some manufacturers came out too fast, with expensive and weak offerings and now have to cut back, once they realize not everyone is ready for a full blown BEV. Having said that both GM and Hyundai seem to pushing forward with their BEVs, but are also pushing more hybrids as a transition option.

The other thing that needs to improve is the charging infrastructure. Too many stories about sparse and broken fast chargers. That type of news does not give confidence to prospective BEV buyers.
 
A free market, we can find the car that best meets our requirements. In my case:
  • AutoPilot/Full Self Driving - driving automation not geo-fenced
  • Electric car - a Tesla and BMW i3-REx
These are just my requirements so that is what I buy. Every car manufacturer is free to offer their best from which I choose. As for Toyota, I owned them 2005 to 2019. Then I found better and traded my Prius Prime for a Tesla Model 3.

As for investments, I've always done well with:
  • companies that hire me
  • companies making products I buy
Bob Wilson
 
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It will be a while before we know how this all plays out. Maybe Toyota was right to start slowly on EVs, but maybe not. Honda appears to have done well using the GM Ultium platform for its first EVs. The Prologue is off to a roaring start, outselling the Mach-E and the Ioniq5 in August, and miles ahead of the bZ4X. If it's in-house-developed EVs are even better, they could be major players. If these other companies establish themselves as EV leaders, will Toyota be an afterthought? We won't really know for a few years.
 
Toyota was way too early with the RAV4 EV, but Elon ended up the true beneficiary of that 2010 Toyota-Tesla partnership!
 
Puppethead said:
I've mentioned this before, but here's more on the subject. TL;DR the rate of EV sales increase has slowed, but are still growing.

EV sales have not fallen, cooled, slowed or slumped. Stop lying in headlines.
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Yeah, there are plenty of people who would love to see the downfall of EVs, and the wording used sometimes in articles is really misleading. I do think the point remains though that the level of growth of EV marketshare is not what many people expected. That can't be denied. Almost every automaker is cutting back on their EV plans. Also, the new thing now is that even Tesla sales are not what people thought they would be. They used to be groundbreakers and innovators, but not much has been significantly new since the Model Y. Elon's spouting of controversial views has hurt them too. I think sales of the Chevy Equinox EV should be a indication of the potential market. It seems to be a well designed long range smallish SUV for a reasonable price.
 
Mark W said:
think sales of the Chevy Equinox EV should be a indication of the potential market. It seems to be a well designed long range smallish SUV for a reasonable price.
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It's a crossover, it looks OK, and it's not expensive--just what US customers should like. In July, Electrek reported GM's EV sales are picking up, thanks, in part, to the Equinox EV:

GM broke Q2 and first-half EV sales records with new models like the Chevy Blazer and Equinox EVs hitting the market. However, GM’s new electric cars were not the only ones driving growth, as sales of the Cadillac Lyriq and GMC Hummer EVs also surged.

If you add in the sales of the GM Ultium-based Honda Prologue, the platform is doing very well.
 
insightman said:
I assume you meant resolved.

Yes, Chevy's finally offering reasonably priced crossover EVs for people who want to be able to buy their EV in Michigan.
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Where "reasonable" means compared to other EVs. All of them are significantly more expensive than ICE offerings, although the lower maintenance and fueling costs probably make up the difference within five years.
 
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