Poll: What does Tesla Semi need to live up to Elon's hype?

Roadster 2.0 reveal and other stuff not related to semi.

 

Well, to match Elon's galactically over-the-top hype of the Tesla BEV Semi Truck, it would indeed have to have at least fully developed Level 4 (if not Level 5) autonomous driving capability, and it would have to have better than, let's say, 800 miles of range. My expectation is that the concept truck which Tesla will be demonstrating will have neither capability.

The fact that Elon has said this tractor will be capable of full autonomy is one of several reasons why I'm sure that what Tesla will be showing this week is not a production-intent prototype, but rather a concept vehicle cum technology demonstrator. Elon can talk about a fully autonomous BEV semi tractor because he knows that production of such a vehicle is at least a couple of years off, and he thinks Tesla can get to reliable Level 4 autonomy by that time. (Personally I think that's overly ambitious, but Elon has a habit of ignoring such limits... and sometimes he has been proven right to do so! How about those SpaceX reusable rockets, hmmm?)

Returning to the subject of Elon's hype: The target market, which is those buying semi tractors for trucking fleets, aren't going to be impressed with that cabbage. They and their bean-counters will be running a cost/benefit analysis to estimate whether or not buying such a BEV semi tractor and (reportedly) renting the battery pack from Tesla, would cost them less money than buying and maintaining a diesel semi tractor.

They will also be looking at how generally useful and flexible the Tesla semi tractor can be. If it has restricted range, or can only achieve improved efficiency by using special trailers, then that's going to sharply reduce demand. Now, that's not to say that there can't be a niche for a Tesla BEV semi tractor with, say, 250 miles of range. As has been pointed out, there are a lot of daily trucking routes no longer than that. But diesel semi tractor are more generally useful because they can be used on short or long routes. For a trucking firm which runs its trucks on both short and long routes, buying a short-ranged tractor makes the fleet less flexible.

For a trucking company which handles nothing but short/medium haul routes, or one which has advantageous dispatching (for instance, if all tractors on short/medium distance routes return to a central location at the end of the day), then buying a BEV semi tractor restricted to short or medium distance routes may make sense.

 

If Elon wants to blow our minds through our skulls, he needs to start pumping out Model 3's. I'm an owner, a Tesla fan, but not an investor. If I was an investor I'd be worried about this semi because it appears to me to be another fragmentation for a company that, frankly, is behind on *other* awesome products they've announced.
I'm glad Tesla has the vision and the guts to disrupt multiple industries. BUT... Until they can get those Powerwalls and Solar roofs and Model 3's churned out, my preference is that they focus their efforts on building what they are already selling.

 

To me this a bigger mindshare move than the S, 3, X combined. What he has to do is show it dragging the most powerful production Diesel class 8 up a hill backwards in a tug. That will kill the F150 mindshare fairly quickly and signal that petrol is mortally wounded and start to help tell the story of how weak petrol is from a business and societal cost stand point. Then he needs to announce the Tesla locomotive.

People need to see the bigger picture. There is a reason petrol is attempting to preemptively cast Musk as Apartheid, and Kelly is saying the civil war could have been avoided with a compromise on slavery. Its because they know Petrol is slavery part II and abolition part 2 is brewing to address it. Think about how idiotic its is for the fed to be trying to ground satilites that study climate. They are itching for a war to distract from petrol's death. And the left wants to cut the right's money which not surprisingly the main funder of backwards elitism is petrol.

 

Have to say top vote was 350kw charger but mega charger is 1600kwh solar/battery locked at 7cents a kwh off the charts charging system to go in all the big stations. Musk 10x delivered on the top vote getter. And when you realize same range as rail for lower price and greater flexibility he hit the number 2 as well.

Every other semi in the world sucks in comparison- fastest, most efficient, most reliable, most powerful, cleanest quietest, safest lowest cost of maintenence, highest up time, best warranty, coolest most technologically advanced, best ergonomics, most fun to drive revolution- cheaper from day one with coolest introduction.